After Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield played like one of the best QBs in the NFL last season, many expected a suitable encore this season. Maybe not the heights of 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns, but something resembling a stat line of an elite signal-caller. Instead, Mayfield’s regression in Josh Grizzard’s system, especially lately, cannot be ignored.

What has changed?

Mayfield and Grizzard attempted to answer questions related to the unit’s lackluster performance on Tuesday afternoon. With the Bucs’ season hanging in the balance, it is just as much up to the offense to right the ship as the defense over the final four games.

Baker Mayfield’s Recent Play Is A Microcosm of Bucs’ Overall Struggles

It is no secret that Baker Mayfield has struggled over the past month.

Over the past four games, Mayfield has completed just 54.3% of his passes for 530 yards with four touchdowns to four interceptions. While he missed one half of football during the Rams game, the efficiency and big plays have waned in the second half of the season.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield, OC Josh Grizzard and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka has been trusted to carry the load catching passes after a hot start, but a case of the drops has come at the worst time. Outside of Egbuka, no one else has really stepped up in a passing game without Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan, with Chris Godwin Jr. still getting up to full speed. That has dampened the early success had with throwing the deep ball and extending plays to find open guys.

For instance, through the first five weeks of the season, Mayfield was attempting 16.4% of his passes beyond 20-plus air yards, completing 43.8% of them. Now, those numbers have regressed to 12.5% of his passes and only connecting on 36.5% of them. Offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard has emphasized shorter throws in recent weeks, but the results have just not been there this year compared to last year:

2024 Baker Mayfield on short passes (between 0-9 yards): 42.3% of his passes, 80.1% completion percentage, 18 touchdowns, two interceptions

2025 Baker Mayfield on short passes (between 0-9 yards): 39.3% of his passes, 73.2% completion percentage, three touchdowns, three interceptions

At its core, Tampa Bay’s offense has not just lost efficiency, it has lost rhythm. The spacing that made Grizzard’s script so effective has tightened. Receivers are not separating on deep routes or even when resorting to quick-game throws near the line of scrimmage. The timing that defined Mayfield’s early-season confidence has evaporated. What remains is an offense forced to win with execution instead of explosiveness, and it simply has failed to.

In addition, not having left tackle Tristan Wirfs and right tackle Luke Goedeke on the field together much has led to an up-and-down run game, and there is a complete lack of production at tight end.

With that said, there are countless reasons why the “Mayfield Magic” has all but dried up.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs’ struggles as of late do not solely fall on Mayfield’s shoulders, but it does exacerbate the extent in which many players have fallen short of meeting expectations. Just a year ago, this was an offense averaging 29.5 points per game, fourth-most in the league. That number has dipped to 23 points per game, resulting in a middle of the pack 17th-best mark.

In a lot of ways, this season is starting to resemble more of the 2023 Bucs than the 2024 Buccaneers. The offense, much like the team in general, has gone stale and is plagued with inconsistencies moving the football. The weather played a factor doing so against the Saints, but that still does not excuse Mayfield starting the game completing his first eight passes but going just 14-of-30 through the air on the day. That is not the first time he has started the game hot, looking like the quarterback who masterfully ran Liam Coen’s offense last year on game-opening drives, only to struggle for a quarter or two after.

Injuries have hit the offense hard, with the force of a 240-pound linebacker. Countless injuries have made Grizzard’s life all the more difficult not having the players he came into the year hoping to game-plan around. Regardless of circumstances though, it is on the offensive play-caller to find ways to put his quarterback and the personnel around him in position to be successful.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and OC Josh Grizzard – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

“When it comes to that side of it, I think it’s ultimately all 11 [players],” Grizzard said when asked about Mayfield’s statistics in recent games. “I think what he’s done a good job of – no matter who’s in there – is being on the same page and trying to get these guys in the right order in terms of a walk-through rep or practice rep to go out there and compete. A couple of those interceptions were not on him – not throwing anybody under the bus on that – but it kind of is what it is on that side of it.

“I thought he’s done a hell of a job the whole year being able to adjust his game to who’s in there, whether it’s up front, the [running] backs, the [wide] receivers, the tight ends. Ultimately, it’s not good enough as a unit – that doesn’t just fall on his shoulders. I can always help him out with that, the rest of the guys on the field can help him with that. Looking forward, this week is another great opportunity versus Atlanta to get back on track and flush last game. There’s nothing better than playing on a Thursday to get back on the right side of that win-loss column.”

As much as Grizzard wants to remain optimistic and look at the ways Mayfield has made the most of things amid all the moving parts, there has to be more life, more urgency, and more attention to detail. With how the defense has allowed yards and points throughout the year, the only chance Tampa Bay has at staying in ballgames is for No. 6 to be dialed in. The dud performances he has had, much like his first year in town with Dave Canales in 2023, will not cut it if they want any chance of playing meaningful football into the month of January.

“I think it comes back to what I’ve kind of hit on after the games we’ve lost, it’s the little things,” Mayfield said. “Whether it’s me being on-time with my footwork, getting the protection aligned to where we can all be on the same page and it can come out on time, the depths of the routes, all that stuff and then it just comes down to executing. It’s not one thing you can point at, but it’s a culmination of all those things and we’ll get it fixed.”

Baker Mayfield Remains Optimistic Bucs Can Get On Track Against Falcons

After all of the preparation playing the Saints did not lead to a win, the Bucs will be counting more on resolve and instincts in order to beat the Falcons on a short week. Playing on Sunday afternoon, only to go through walk-through practices and gear up for Thursday night, is tough on any player. It is taxing physically, but from a mentality standpoint, Baker Mayfield shared that the locker room remains as focused as ever on correcting the wrongs and maintaining the top spot in the NFC South.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

“We’re still in control of our own destiny – that’s just a fact,” Mayfield said. “We’re tied for the division, we would love to be ahead and in a different spot, but we are where we are and we control our own destiny, win one game at a time and see what happens.”

A late season run would do wonders in changing the sentiment the fanbase has developed. It was not that long ago the Bucs were the talk of the league, at 5-1 and making the team’s 50th season all the more special. Calls for accountability and wholesale changes have grown louder, but going 4-0 to close out the year, beginning with Atlanta on Thursday, would be a strong response and give them an opportunity to fight for another game in the playoffs.

“It’s that playoff mentality,” Mayfield said of the team’s current mindset. “[When you’re] looking at it, we’re playing a divisional opponent, they would love nothing more than to beat us and screw up our chances. So, you go into it expecting, ‘Okay, do they really have a lot on the line? Yeah, because they’re trying to knock us out of the playoffs,’ so that’s the mindset. It’s playoff mentality for us, and we have to expect to get their best.”

Two teams wanting to show up and play their best football in a hotly contested divisional matchup sets the stage for an entertaining primetime game. Winning it, in the Bucco Bruce creamsicle uniforms no less, would be the start of getting back on track.