Change has swept through One Buc Place this offseason.

Numerous Bucs coaches have been fired and hired, with just as many roster decisions looming via free agency and the 2026 NFL Draft after an 8-9 collapse that felt heavier than the record.

Amid all the moving pieces, one constant will ultimately decide how far Tampa Bay goes in 2026 and beyond – quarterback Baker Mayfield.

Mayfield is entering uncharted waters this season, currently in a contract year and no longer receiving as much praise for his career turnaround. The narrative being spun now is that he is not the kind of signal-caller to lead a Super Bowl team.

That, while he is a good quarterback, he will never be elite.

Fair or not, the sample size fuels that disrespect and skepticism. Still, with the Bucs having so many question marks, No. 6 remains the X-Factor for what lies ahead for the franchise.

Baker Mayfield Enters 2026 More Motivated Than Ever

If there is any Bucs player more eager to put 2025 behind them, it has to be Baker Mayfield.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Being the competitor that he is, it has to eat at Mayfield just how much the offense – and team as a whole – simply fell flat down the stretch. Injuries across the offense played a part in week-to-week lapses, while the offensive gameplan was stale enough that head coach Todd Bowles decided to let go of offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard after finishing the year 2-7 following a 6-2 start. There is no excusing the poor, inconsistent quarterback play, but the run game lacked efficiency, while the offensive line dealt with various injuries leading to makeshift combinations upfront.

Knowing what lies ahead this season, Mayfield must be the engine that makes things go.

Reports indicate wide receiver Mike Evans intends to play in 2026, but there is no guarantee it will be in Tampa Bay. That would hurt not just the offense’s success but add additional weight to Mayfield’s right shoulder. Suddenly, the 6-foot-5 wideout he relies on might move out of town, and the ripple effects would be extensive.

What happens over the next calendar year will determine how long Mayfield is in Tampa Bay. After signing a three-year, $100 million deal back in March 2024, 2026 is the final year of his deal. It seemed like a foregone conclusion that he would get another extension after a sensational 4,500-yard, 41-touchdown season following that contract. After starting 2025 off hot, he and the rest of the team cooled off and struggled mightily.

Can he once again elevate his play and the team around him? Turning 31 years old this April, this upcoming season will be a career-defining year for the gun-slinging quarterback. There is no questioning his fire and how much being doubted propels him.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The time is coming for him to prove people wrong once more.

If he does, what will follow is a contract that keeps him with the Bucs into perhaps 2030 and into his mid-30s. If he does not, the team could pivot and decide to move on from him while overhauling the coaching staff and a roster that already is beginning to be faced with an identity crisis. In a world where Evans and/or Lavonte David move on this offseason or next, it is Mayfield that has to start rallying the troops as the leader. His response will dictate just how competitive the team is.

In turn that will affect the organizational philosophy beginning with the Glazers and extending down to the front office. If general manager Jason Licht does not push in his chips in the coming months, a team exceeding expectations would surely compel the Glazer family to give him the go-ahead to add the finishing touches for contention. Otherwise, shipping out veterans and leaning more into a rebuild could be the M.O. if the Bucs have another sub .500 season in the NFC South.

Mediocrity is the worst place to be in any facet of life. In the NFL, it is the worst place to live.

Not good enough to contend. Not bad enough to reset.

Something has to give, and Mayfield is at the center of it all.

What Does Success Look Like For Baker Mayfield And The Bucs In 2026?

With this comes the next question – what success looks like for Baker Mayfield and the Bucs in 2026.

Well, it starts with Mayfield getting back to what he accomplished in 2024 with an offensive voice who should bring the same level of innovation. New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has a long way to go to be in the conversation with now Jaguars head coach Liam Coen. Coen maximized Mayfield’s strengths in 2024 and built a playoff-caliber offense in one season, then did the same in Jacksonville with quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

What Robinson can do is follow a blueprint that has already been laid out.

Bucs OC Zac Robinson – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Like Coen, he worked with Mayfield during his short stint with the Rams. Robinson is not a novice when it comes to calling plays, having done so with the Falcons for the past two seasons. His coaching background provides hope that he can meld what he learned in previous stops and find a way to unlock Mayfield and the playmakers around him.

Getting Mike Evans back would help, as M1K3 remains a 1,000-yard, 10-touchdown threat – even at 33 years old. Outside of Evans, the receiving room boasts veteran Chris Godwin Jr. and youngsters Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan, and Tez Johnson. It is a deep and talented group, one that leaves no excuses not to have one of the best passing games in the NFL.

If this offense finishes middle-of-the-pack again, it will not be because of a lack of weapons.

Robinson mentioned during his introductory press conference late last month that he wants his offense to be “in attack mode.”

“We all have a foundational belief in [where] we want to go, scheme-wise,” Robinson said. “You’re adapting to your players, you’re adapting to your quarterback, your offensive line, the skill group – all of those things… I think before you even get to scheme and specifics, it’s your style of play. We want our guys to always be in attack mode, we want our guys to play with relentless play energy, effort, and strain.”

Mayfield will have just as much – if not more – support around him than he did with Coen calling plays. The running back room has a more experienced Bucky Irving, who will also be looking to put last year behind him. The offensive line has its five starters set and will welcome a healthy interior offensive line.

Now, offensive and team success will be dictated through the win-loss column.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

Even in 2024, all of the offense’s achievements only led to a 10-7 record and elimination in the Wild Card round. The stakes are higher than ever before, for everyone involved. The defense, led by Todd Bowles, must show improvement and be more than just average. Any team aiming for contention cannot have one side of the ball doing the heavy lifting and the other barely pushing the bar up.

While much of the focus remains on the possibility of the defense improving, Mayfield remains the Bucs’ X-Factor. It is one thing to make the playoffs, but another to lead a team to glory. That responsibility falls on the quarterback more than anyone.

The upcoming 2026 season is not just about improving from an 8-9 finish in 2025. It is about convincingly winning the NFC South with 10-13 wins. If not going on a Super Bowl run, at least advancing to the NFC Championship game. That would be enough to signal hope in the future and that the Bucs have a foundation worth building on.

Anything less, and more changes will come.

In 2026, Baker Mayfield can either prove he is capable of lifting the Bucs beyond the middle, or that the middle is the ceiling – and rebuilding things might become necessary.