It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ post-game 2-Point Conversion column, which features two big statements, two probing questions and two bold predictions.

The Bucs have now lost three in a row after falling at Buffalo, 24-18, to the Bills. The game wasn’t as close as the final score indicated as Buffalo out-gained Tampa Bay 427-302 yards and held a 14-point lead through much of the second half. The Bucs shot themselves in the foot with 11 costly penalties for 74 yards.

Tampa Bay has 10 days off to fix its issues before traveling to Houston to face the 3-3 Texans, who could be 4-3 with a win at Carolina on Sunday.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1: Baker Mayfield Is Not A Difference-Maker At QB

The stat line looks good.

Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield completed 25-of-42 passes for two touchdowns and connected on a two-point conversion pass to draw Tampa Bay within six points of upsetting Buffalo in the fourth quarter of a 24-18 loss on the road on Thursday Night Football. Mayfield also scrambled three times for 19 yards and ended his interception streak after four straight games with a pick.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

But a closer look at Mayfield’s game showed that his second touchdown of the game, a 24-yard strike to Mike Evans, came on fourth down on a 17-play, 92-yard drive that took way too long to finish. That exhausting drive chewed up 7:21 of precious clock in the fourth quarter when the Bucs were trailing by 14 points.

Two penalties by the Buffalo defense bailed Mayfield and Tampa Bay’s sputtering offense out twice on fourth downs to extend the drive. The Bucs were lucky to have scored on that possession, just as Mayfield was lucky to have his tipped two-point conversion pass caught off the carom by tight end Cade Otton.

The one stat that was critical, yet doesn’t jump out on the stat sheet, was that Mayfield completed just one pass for six yards in the entire third quarter. In fact, Tampa Bay had seven plays that totaled 27 yards in the third quarter.

That’s it.

Baker Mayfield wasn’t bad in Buffalo, but he wasn’t very good, either. In fact, his play was kind of similar to how he’s played in all three losses since the bye week. Not bad enough to bench him, but certainly not good enough to win the game with, either.

Through the first three quarters against Buffalo, Mayfield completed 13-of-21 passes (61.9%) for 124 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions. More importantly, the Bucs trailed 24-10.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Not enough offense. Not enough yards. Certainly not enough points. Just not effective enough.

Through seven games we’ve found the Bucs’ identity on offense. Tampa Bay cannot run the ball. Even against the league’s 23rd-ranked run defense in Buffalo the Bucs managed just 78 yards on 17 carries (4.6 avg.). Remember that three Mayfield scrambles accounted for 19 of those yards.

But for the second straight week Canales has called 45 pass plays and Mayfield has attempted 42 passes. The Bucs had 17 called runs against the Falcons and just 14 called runs against the Bills.

Tampa Bay’s offense – as ineffective as it is – is now undoubtedly pass-first. The offensive line is better at pass protection than run blocking. The top two weapons are wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – not any of the team’s running backs.

That means more of the heavy lifting is on the shoulders of the team’s 6-foot-1, 215-pound quarterback, and Mayfield is not proving to be up to the task. This is not to damn Mayfield or solely blame him for a stagnant offense that rarely gets into the end zone.

There’s plenty of blame to go around – from a rookie play-caller to a young offensive line that is suddenly penalty-happy, to a tight end room that struggles to block and lacks big-play ability in the passing game, to a group of pedestrian running backs.

Bucs RB Rachaad White and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Coming into the season the Bucs had hoped to achieve balance with a better ground game this year. Mayfield was supposed to be the point guard on offense – distributing the ball to the playmakers. Now without a running game, he’s being asked to be the team’s shooting guard.

For old school NBA fans, Mayfield is way more John Stockton or Danny Ainge than he is Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant. But the Bucs are needing him to be MJ or Kobe– and he just isn’t.

Simply put, Mayfield is not enough of a difference-maker. The difference-making QB on the field on Thursday night was Buffalo’s Pro Bowler Josh Allen, who threw a pair of touchdown passes and ran for another score. Allen was 31-of-40 (77.5%) for 324 yards and ran the ball seven times for 41 yards including Buffalo’s first score of the game.

The more we see Mayfield the more we notice how frenetic and uncomfortable he looks at times in the pocket, how many of his passes get tipped or batted at the line of scrimmage, how he struggles to find receivers at times, and how sluggish the offense is to start games.

The problem for the Bucs is that unproven, third-year QB Kyle Trask probably isn’t the answer. He’s not as mobile as Mayfield is and can’t escape sacks like Mayfield can, nor does he have Mayfield’s experience to lean on.

Baker Mayfield hasn’t played poorly enough for the Bucs to prompt a change. He just hasn’t played well enough to light up the scoreboard and win enough games, either. And that’s proving to be a problem moving forward in 2023 and beyond.

STATEMENT 2: Slow Starts Are Killing The Bucs

The Bucs have notoriously gotten off to slow starts this year on both sides of the ball. Not just in the first quarter where Tampa Bay has been outscored 26-13. The Bucs have been outscored on the opening drives, too.

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs are 1-in-7 in scoring points on their first drive, and that was a lone field goal to start the Bears game in Week 2. Tampa Bay’s offense has been firing blanks at the beginning of the last five weeks. Meanwhile, the Bucs defense has surrendered 20 points on opening drives this season, often putting the team in an early hole.

Thursday night was no different as Buffalo scored a field goal on its first possession.

The Bucs coaches are emphasizing fast starts in practice, but to no avail.

Tampa Bay is also sluggish on both sides of the ball coming out of halftime. Buffalo increased its lead to 24-10 by outscoring the Bucs in the third quarter, 7-0.

Now Tampa Bay is being outscored in the third quarter 29-17 on the year. The Bucs are barely outscoring opponents in the second quarter this season, 50-47, and are having to play catch up too often in the fourth quarter because they are usually trailing. Tampa Bay is outscoring opponents 41-26 in the fourth quarter.

Faster starts where the Bucs can get out to an early 7-0 lead would be ideal. But the Bucs also need to seize control of the second half with a more productive third quarter on both sides of the ball.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1: Is Todd Bowles On The Hot Seat?

Not yet. The Bucs are 3-4 and still 1-1 in the division with 10 games left. It’s not fun to watch Tampa Bay lose three straight games. It might seem like the season is starting to spiral.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

But in reality, the Bucs were going to lose to the Eagles, the Lions and the Bills. All three teams were better and more talented on paper, and proved it on the field. The real disappointing loss was last week, 16-13, to Atlanta.

Tampa Bay will also lose at San Francisco to a better 49ers team. Mark it down, expect it to happen, and don’t be disappointed when it does.

Bucs fans should have had the same expectations for Thursday’s game at Buffalo. Every Pewter Reporter forecasted a Tampa Bay loss for a valid reason – the Bucs just aren’t as good as the Bills.

The truth is that Bowles hasn’t lost the locker room. His players still fight hard to the bitter end. They didn’t give up or quit on Thursday night, and came within a failed Hail Mary of winning – even though Tampa Bay didn’t deserve the victory.

Having said that, Bowles’ Bucs need to win the winnable games ahead, and they have plenty coming up. Going to Houston will not be easy next week, but the coaches will have 10 days to prepare against a rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud, who is playing really good football.

The Texans are 3-3 with impressive wins over the Jaguars, the Steelers and the Saints, and a narrow, 21-19 loss to the Falcons. Houston has won three of its last four games and travels to Carolina where it will likely win its fourth game of the year on Sunday.

After that are the struggling Tennessee Titans, who are 2-4. Bowles needs to stop the Bucs’ losing skid at three games and get a pair of wins over AFC South teams before losing at San Francisco. With a 5-5 record entering the final seven-game stretch there should be four more wins to find in December and into January.

However, if the Bucs don’t get back over .500 before heading out to play the 49ers Bowles’ seat will surely get hotter.

QUESTION 2: Will Todd Bowles Make Some Changes To Spark The Team?

Bills TE Dalton Kincaid and Bucs SS Ryan Neal – Photo by: USA Today

Probably not, unfortunately. As previously mentioned, Baker Mayfield truly hasn’t done enough to deserve to be benched. With 10 touchdown passes and four interceptions that would be a hard sell to the team.

But Bowles does need to bench Ryan Neal, who gave up a 22-yard touchdown to rookie Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid. Neal, who finished with 13 tackles in Buffalo, seems to give up a big play in the passing game each week and has yet to record any takeaways this year. Meanwhile, reserve Dee Delaney sits on the sideline with a team-leading two interceptions and played well at strong safety in Neal’s absence in a 26-9 win at New Orleans in Week 4.

Outside linebacker Joe Tryon-Shoyinka had two tackles and was nearly invisible in Buffalo and was outplayed by Anthony Nelson, who had four tackles, two tackles for loss and a sack. Bowles would be wise to start Nelson and give him more snaps than JTS, who just isn’t making the strides the team had hoped the former first-rounder would this year.

Inside linebacker Devin White made the quietest nine tackles you’ve ever seen, and has yet to make any real difference-making plays on defense this year outside of catching an errant Jalen Hurts pass in self-defense back in Week 3.

Bucs OLB Anthony Nelson – Photo by: USA Today

It would be nice to see what SirVocea Dennis could do at Mike linebacker. But there’s no way Bowles would bench White, who is one of his personnel favorites. Meanwhile, White is playing his way out of Tampa Bay by whiffing hard in a contract year.

Bowles also needs to be more assertive with offensive coordinator Dave Canales in-game on the sidelines. Bowles is usually hands-off when it comes to the offense, but his biggest fault in Thursday night’s game was not imploring Canales to go up-tempo or use the two-minute midway through the fourth quarter with Tampa Bay trailing by 14 points.

Bowles is not just the defensive play-caller, he’s also the head coach. He has an obligation as the one in charge of clock management to tell Canales to speed things up. Too often the Bucs would huddle rather than call the play at the line in the fourth quarter. And too often Tampa Bay would hike the ball with just a few seconds left on the play clock and burn more precious time.

As a result, the Bucs’ fourth quarter touchdown drive took way too long and consumed 7:21 off the clock.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1: Mike Evans Will Get 1,000 Yards For A 10th Straight Year

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

I know it may seem like Evans won’t reach 1,000 yards this year for the first time in his career after catching a season-low three passes for 39 yards at Buffalo. But Evans is actually still on pace to reach 1,000 yards. With 33 catches for 507 yards, Evans is averaging 72.4 yards per game and is on pace to produce 1,231 receiving yards this season.

Just as important, Evans has five touchdowns on the season after scoring just six times last year. With another TD in Buffalo on Thursday night, the four-time Pro Bowler is on pace to score 12 touchdowns in 2023. Evans has produced four seasons with 12 touchdowns or more in his first nine years in Tampa Bay.

PREDICTION 2: A Loss At Houston Would Sink The Bucs’ Ship

The Bucs must stop the bleeding in Houston and end their four-game losing streak. It will be tough because the Texans are a formidable team with first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans and first-round QB C.J. Stroud, who has thrown for nine touchdowns and just one interception in his first six starts.

I’m not sure if the Bucs do win against the Texans or not. I’ll make my official game prediction next week. But what I do know is that if Tampa Bay loses at Houston the Bucs will be 3-5 and could begin to spiral. If that happens the Bucs they won’t make the playoffs. That could cost Todd Bowles his job.