This time last year very few people believed in quarterback Baker Mayfield. The former first overall pick had been counted out as he joined his fourth team in less than 12 months.

The Bucs were betting on a bounce back from the former Heisman Trophy winner, who just a couple of years prior, had led a previously moribund Browns team to a playoff win. But very few industry analysts shared the Bucs’ vision of Baker’s upside.

Last year Pro Football Focus ranked Mayfield 28th overall among starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Sam Monson, author of the article, had this to say about Mayfield.

It’s difficult to argue that Baker Mayfield’s 2022 season was easily predictable, but it’s equally difficult to maintain any kind of lofty expectations for him going forward after witnessing it. His 50.6 PFF grade on the year was 13 grading points lower than his previous career-worst mark (which involved a torn shoulder), and it speaks volumes that the Rams were happy to let him walk after he led the team to a remarkable win just after stepping off the plane after they traded for him. Mayfield has very good play on his NFL resume, but it’s getting harder and harder to see it in the rearview mirror.

Baker Mayfield Ascends QB Rankings

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Fast forward one year and things look much rosier for Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. Following a season where he threw for over 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns – both career highs – to only 10 interceptions and won another playoff game Pro Football Focus now has him ranked as the 20th overall quarterback in the NFL.

How has the narrative changed on Mayfield? This time PFF analyst Trevor Sikkema was the one ranking quarterbacks and he shared his thoughts on Tampa Bay’s QB.

Mayfield played on a one-year, “prove-it” deal in 2023, where the “prove-it” part could have spelled the end of his time as an NFL starter. It wasn’t his best season, by the numbers, but it was enough to get him a three-year extension. His last four games of the year were the catalyst.

Overall, Mayfield was erratic, with 25 big-time throws and 22 turnover-worthy plays. But over the final four games he earned a top-10 passing grade, including an elite Week 15 performance on the road in Green Bay that propelled the Buccaneers to a strong finish and a playoff berth.

Sikkema also placed him in a category of quarterbacks who can single-handedly win or lose a game. Quarterbacks who Mayfield has jumped since last year’s rankings include former starters Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Ryan Tannehill, Kenny Pickett, Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Howell. He made a jump over current starters Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Derek Carr, Daniel Jones and Bryce Young.

Jumping Baker this year was rookie Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick, second-year phenom C.J. Stroud and veteran Kyler Murray, who was left off last year’s list due to injury.

Baker Mayfield Made Strides In 2023 But Still Has Room To Grow

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Due to a combination of quarterback injuries and improved play from Baker Mayfield he was arguably a Top 12 passer in the NFL. He ranked Top 10 in EPA/play, ninth in passing yards and seventh in touchdowns.

While he had previously built a reputation as a gunslinger who turned the ball over too much, that moniker didn’t really hold water. And despite facing the highest number of pressures in his career he had his second-best pressure to sack rate, showing a level of pocket awareness and escapability that had previously not been a consistent part of his game.

He also had one of his best seasons of his career targeting the intermediate portion of the field. He averaged a career-best 10.7 yards per attempt and had a completion rate of just under 57% when targeting between 10 and 19 yards downfield.

However, his 24 turnover-worthy plays were fourth-most in the league last year and he was Top 10 in turnover-worthy play rate. Mayfield was also one of the worst downfield quarterbacks in the league, an area of the game he had historically excelled at. Among 40 qualified passers, Mayfield ranked 39th in adjusted completion percentage and 33rd in yards per attempt on passes of 20+ air yards.

If Mayfield can even slightly cut his turnover-worthy play rate and regain some of his deep ball accuracy he could be looking at another move up this PFF QB ranking list in 2025.