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About the Author: Joshua Queipo

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Josh Queipo joined the Pewter Report team in 2022, specializing in salary cap analysis and film study. In addition to his official role with the website and podcast, he has an unofficial role as the Pewter Report team’s beaming light of positivity and jokes. A staunch proponent of the forward pass, he is a father to two amazing children and loves sushi, brisket, steak and bacon, though the order changes depending on the day. He graduated from the University of South Florida in 2008 with a degree in finance.
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Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield found another gear in 2024. It was arguably his best season as a pro as he led the Bucs to their second consecutive NFC South title with him at the helm.

He set career highs in passing yards, touchdowns, yards per attempt and adjusted completion percentage. Pro Football Focus credited him with the best grades of his career and ranked him sixth among qualifying quarterbacks last year. Over the past two seasons Mayfield has resurrected his career and entrenched himself as Tampa Bay’s franchise quarterback, replacing Tom Brady, which is quite a feat.

While the Bucs’ scheme gave Mayfield a leg up with a varied and creative screen game, Mayfield made excellent strides when targeting the most difficult part of the field. On intermediate passes Mayfield completed 61.4% of his passes and averaged 10.9 yards per attempt. Both marks were easily the best of his career.

Bucs Qb Baker Mayfield

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Benefiting from an offensive coordinator who tailored a scheme to his strengths while playing the best ball of his career, Mayfield lifted the Bucs to several wins they otherwise would not have had in 2024. But there are still two areas of his game that still have room to improve that could see Mayfield hit yet another level in 2025.

Baker Mayfield Takes Too Many Sacks

Baker Mayfield’s penchant for not giving up on plays is the quintessential double-edged sword. It both creates some of the most spectacular plays you will ever see but can also set the offense back more than necessary.

Mayfield’s 22.5% pressure-to-sack rate was third worst in the NFL last year, ahead of only Will Levis and Caleb Williams. Cutting that rate to even 17% would save the team almost a sack a game, not to mention some of the turnovers that came from those pressure plays. Remember, Mayfield was tied with Lamar Jackson for second in the NFL with 41 touchdowns last year, but also tied with Kirk Cousins for the most interceptions in the league with 16.

This isn’t to say that Mayfield should adopt a Cousins-like approach to pressure. Part of what makes Mayfield special is his ability to create when all seems lost. But strategically deploying it in the right situations can provide a net positive to the offense.

Bucs Qb Baker Mayfield And Raiders Cb Darnay Holmes

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and Raiders CB Darnay Holmes – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs coaching staff has said as much throughout Mayfield’s two-year tenure in Tampa Bay. Quarterbacks coach Thad Lewis spoke with the media recently and discussed the need for Mayfield to be more discerning on when he tries to keep a play alive and when he should just throw the ball away and live to fight another play.

“He has a chip on his shoulder no matter what,” Lewis said. “Good, bad, indifferent. He’s always out to prove himself. But he’s his own worst enemy, right? I just got to get him out of harm’s way. I like his competitive nature, but I don’t like it to the expense where he keeps getting hit and he won’t be available. He’s getting older. He turned 30. So, I joke with him now. Welcome to the 30 club. Uh you’re older now, so them hits you took when in your 20s, you know, might affect you a little different in your thirties.

“So, just to get him to start being smart, take less hits, throw it away. Maybe get down and only be competitive in situations called ‘got to have it’ situations. A first down, touchdown, end of the game, things like that. But I love him to death. I wouldn’t trade him for nothing or his competitive nature.”

Finding the balance between being a playmaker when the situation calls for a high-risk, high-reward gamble and when it is best to live to fight another play can help reduce the low-end outcomes from Baker’s game and provide a more consistent offense from drive to drive.

Baker Mayfield Needs To Work On Deep Throws

There was a time where Baker Mayfield was one of the most productive deep passers in the NFL. He ranked fifth in cumulative EPA on throws of 20+ air yards in 2018 and 12th in 2020. But during his time in Tampa Bay that part of Mayfield’s game has eroded. In 2023 he was 25th in EPA on deep passes and last year he was 26th.

Part of that reduction is due to a change in how he attacks the field. During his time in Cleveland at the beginning of his career, Mayfield targeted the deep part of the field 11.4% of the time. That number has come down to 9.8% in Tampa Bay and bottomed out to 7.5% last year. The Bucs offense was lethal at creating explosive plays. But those plays came most offense with a great deal of yards after the catch. But the one element of the offense that trailed the league average was attacking downfield.

Bucs Wr Trey Palmer

Bucs WR Trey Palmer – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Mayfield’s efficiency on those deep targets was near a career-low in 2023 but ticked up last year. Especially, towards the end of the season. Over the last four weeks of the regular season Mayfield was 7-of-13 for 244 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. If Mayfield and his receiving corps can keep that trend moving into 2025 it opens up the last unlocked part of the offense.

Expanding on that could mean finding the most creative ways to get to the routes Mayfield was most successful connecting with last year. While he struggled on single plane verticals, he and his receivers found more production on two-plane routes including corners, corner-posts deep crosses and digs. He was 8-of-14 when targeting those routes and found a specific connection with Jalen McMillan on these routes.

While Mike Evans’ usage changed last year. The Bucs used him as more of a short-to-intermediate threat. In doing so, they asked McMillan to become the downfield threat the offense needed. McMillan isn’t the traditional speed/vertical/ball-winning threat that tends to succeed in that role long-term. Tampa Bay will need to find a balance for Evans, using him more vertically in 2025 while hoping rookie Emeka Egbuka can help stretch the field as well.

If Mayfield can get back to connecting downfield 10-11% of the time on more two-plane routes that he is most comfortable with it could be the element that takes the Bucs offense from top five to the league’s best in 2025.

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