The Bucs are hoping that Baker Mayfield can recapture his 2020 form in 2023. That was the high-water mark for Mayfield in his five-year career. That year, Mayfield set career highs in first downs, passer rating, quarterback rating, and touchdown to interception ratio while recording his highest Pro Football Focus passer rating. That year, Mayfield was able to lead the Browns to an 11-5 record and a playoff win.

Things were looking up for Baker and the Browns.

The 2021 season started similarly for Mayfield. In Week 1 against the vaunted Chiefs, he again performed well, completing 21-of-28 passes for 321 yards with three “Big Time Throws” to only one “Turnover Worthy Play” according to Pro Football Focus. That was good enough for him to register a 75.2 grade from the site.

But in Week 2, Mayfield suffered a torn labrum in his left (non-throwing) shoulder that would change the course of his career. He followed that up with a separate injury to the same area of his body later in the season. Mayfield, tough in nature, attempted to play through these injuries and appeared in 14 of the Browns 17 games that season. The results were disappointing as well as understandable.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Mayfield would only record three other games that season with a PFF grade above the Kansas City game. His completion percentage, touchdowns, yards per attempt and PFF grade would all dip in 2021 while his interceptions would increase.

The result left the Browns searching for a new signal-caller in 2022. After a prolonged ordeal surrounding Mayfield and his guaranteed contract, he was finally dealt to the Panthers late in the summer of 2022.

Having to learn a new offensive system on a reduced timetable while playing for a coaching staff that was already on the hot seat left Mayfield in a no-win situation. He was eventually benched, released and claimed off of waivers by the Rams.

Following an incredible opening game for Los Angeles, the remainder of his season was non-descript as he finished the season as one of the worst graded quarterbacks in the league.

But we know all this right?

Baker Mayfield’s Shoulder Injury Severely Impacted His Ability To Throw To His Left In 2021

Looking through PFF’s passing by depth and direction tool, you are able to get a real sense for where Baker Mayfield was able to maintain his level of play and where it fell off following his injury. In his standout 2020 campaign, Mayfield was a fairly consistent passer to all directions of the field. When throwing to the left, he was 79-of-112 for 1,014 yards while completing 70.54% of his passes and averaging 9.1 yards per attempt.

He threw 10 touchdowns to the left versus just one interception and his big-time throw rate was 8.9% against a turnover worthy play rate of just 1.8%. He also had weighted PFF grade* of 79.0 on throws to that side of the field.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

When targeting the center of the field, Mayfield was 153-of-208 (73.56% completion rate) for 1,634 yards and seven touchdowns with five interceptions. He averaged 7.9 yards per attempt with a 76.3 weighted PFF grade and six big-time throws to nine turnover worthy plays.

Compare that to his throws to the right side, where he was 73-of-115 for 915 yards. He completed 63.48% of his passes in that direction with a yards per attempt mark of 8.0 with nine touchdowns to two interceptions. His big time throw rate was higher to the right (13.0%), but so was his turnover-worthy play rate (2.9%). Mayfield had a similar weighted PFF grade of 73.3 on those throws.

Not all three of those areas fell off considerably in 2021 due to injury. As a matter of fact, while there was decline when he threw to the center and right, neither was precipitous. In 2021 when targeting receivers to the right, Mayfield completed 64.76% of his passes (68-of-105), which was a bit higher than the year prior.

His 8.4 yards per attempt was also higher. Mayfield’s big-time throw rate was lower at 8.6%, but so was his turnover-worthy play rate (1.9%). His weighted PFF grade fell from 73.3 to 65.4. This was due to a drop-off in his effectiveness throwing deep.

Similarly, Mayfield maintained his completion rate when targeting the middle of the field (72.31%) with an improvement in yards per attempt (8.3) with more touchdowns (10) and interceptions (8).

But the precipitous decline in throws to the left is stark. Baker Mayfield’s completion percentage fell from 70.54% to 51.76%. His yards per attempt fell over three yards to 6.0. His big-time throw rate dropped from 8.9% to 7.1%, while his turnover-worthy play rate ballooned from 1.8% to 5.9%. He also had a 22.2-point drop in weighted PFF grade.

*Weighted PFF Grade is a metric I created by taking the PFF grade assigned to each batch of directional/depth throws and weighting it by the number of attempts within a batch I am trying to define. It is the best I can do to approximate a grade without having knowledge of their proprietary formula. Additionally, the big-time throw and turnover-worthy play rates I calculated by dividing the number of those events by the number of attempts in the referenced situations. These will differ slightly from the rates PFF publishes.

Throwing To The Left With A Torn Left Labrum Is Hard

I think the above statement is patently obvious as it is also very intuitive. When throwing to his left in 2021, Baker Mayfield had to open his throwing motion and stretch his left shoulder. This would have been very painful and affected his throwing motion and power the most. This was most noticeable when he was targeting intermediate to deep routes (routes of 10 yards or more) that year.

In those situations, he was 13-of-42 for 281 yards with one touchdown to three interceptions. His yards per attempt was a paltry 6.7 with an 11.9% turnover-worthy play rate. Compare that to his career outside of that year in those situations and you will see his completion percentage is 16.55% higher, his yards per attempt is 2.6 higher, his weighted PFF grade is 26.9 points higher and his big-time throw rate is 5.1% higher while his turnover worthy play rate is over 8% lower.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Baker Mayfield Showed Improvement In 2022

Baker Mayfield was supposedly healthy in 2022 so those numbers improved right? Yes they did.

Were they back to his 2020 levels? No, they were not.

In 2022, Baker completed 67.5% of his passes to the left while averaging 7.3 yards per attempt with a big time throw rate of 7.5% to a turnover worthy play rate of 2.5%. The difference between his 2022 and 2020 throwing to the left was in-line with his difference in those years while targeting the middle of the field as well as the right.

This suggests the surgeries he underwent to repair his injuries were successful and are no longer negatively impacting his play.

Considering This Information Within The Context Of Baker Mayfield’s Upcoming Season

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch//PR

Now fully healthy and back in a system that he once thrived in, I expect Baker Mayfield’s performance to far surpass that of his injury-riddled 2021 and his poor-circumstance 2022. There are still questions that can and will affect his play.

His offensive line and running backs are two of the biggest. But looking at what he was able to do on the throws that were least affected by his injury in 2021, his PFF grade would have been around a 72 with a completion rate of just under 70% of his passes. I would consider that the floor for him barring injury this year.

That would make him somewhere between the 13th and 19th best quarterback in the league when looking at the past three years of rankings.

And that is just enough to make the Bucs dangerous.