INTRO: Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield proved he was worth every penny of his three-year, $100 million contract in Week 1, throwing for four touchdowns and completing 80% of his passes in a 37-20 win over the Commanders. The Browns and Panthers have to be kicking themselves over letting this guy go. Plus, I’ve got some good stuff on Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and a couple of X-factors that could emerge versus the Lions – and not-so-good news about Calijah Kancey in this week’s SR’s Fab 5. Enjoy!

FAB 1. Thank Heavens (And The Browns And Panthers) For Baker Mayfield

The Bucs franchise turns 50 next year, and the team has only made 14 trips to the postseason. Prior to the last four seasons, Tampa Bay had made just 10 playoff appearances in the first 44 years of franchise history.

The culprit for such mediocrity? Generally speaking – poor quarterback play.

Former Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Mary Holt/PR

The Bucs have had two vast stretches of playoff-less seasons from 1983-96 – a span of 14 years – and a more recent stretch from 2008-19 – a dozen years of darkness in Tampa Bay. From 2008-2019, the franchise had three general managers, six head coaches and nine starting quarterbacks who collectively compiled a record of 71-121 (58.7%).

Those starting quarterbacks consisted of Jeff Garcia (2008), Brian Griese (2008), Byron Leftwich (2009), Josh Johnson (2009-12), Josh Freeman (2009-13), Mike Glennon (2013-16), Josh McCown (2014), Jameis Winston (2015-19) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (2017-18). Freeman and Winston were first-round picks and Garcia and McCown were high-priced free agents.

The Bucs had just three winning seasons during that span, but none good enough to qualify for the postseason. In those 12 years, Tampa Bay had seven years with double-digit losses.

Yet the Bucs have made four straight playoff appearances after signing the likes of Tom Brady (2020-22) followed by Baker Mayfield (2023-24). Brady, the greatest quarterback in NFL history, was a no-brainer signing – even at the age of 43. With Mayfield, well, Bucs general manager Jason Licht and head coach Todd Bowles had their fingers crossed and were hopeful.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Perhaps it was the right place at the right time for Mayfield to turn his career around in Tampa Bay. A change of scenery certainly did him some good as he turned his first Pro Bowl season, passing for over 4,000 yards for the first time in his career and throwing a career-high 28 touchdowns. That, plus a playoff win over the Eagles, helped propel Mayfield to earn a three-year, $100 million contract extension this offseason.

Or perhaps the Browns gave up on Mayfield too soon and the Panthers didn’t give Mayfield enough of a chance. Either way, Cleveland quarterback Deshaun Watson has been a huge disappointment on the field and off the field with yet another sexual misconduct allegation coming his way.

Not only did the Browns trade six draft picks to the Texans, who used those picks to build a division winner and a potential powerhouse team in the AFC, but Cleveland gave Watson a five-year, fully guaranteed $230 million contract despite dozens of sexual misconduct allegations stemming from massage parlors.

There absolutely has to be buyer’s remorse in Cleveland over trading for Watson and trading away Mayfield, who threw four touchdowns and no interceptions in Sunday’s 37-20 season-opening win over Washington.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

It is so hard to invest a first-round pick in a quarterback and then walk away from that player before signing that supposed franchise QB to a massive second contract. The Browns did that, and it was the worst thing for their franchise as Watson has been a disaster so far.

The Bucs showed some courage and walked away from Winston after his fifth-year option season and didn’t use the franchise tag on him in 2020 – even when it was not a given that Brady would sign with Tampa Bay at the time.

While Mayfield has proven that the Browns (and Panthers) made a mistake by letting him go, Licht and the Bucs proved to be right about Winston, who had a 6-4 record as a starter in New Orleans, yet has primarily served as a backup for the Saints for four seasons. Now, he backs up Watson in Cleveland.

The New York Giants and the Miami Dolphins caved in to the pressure to re-sign their first-round quarterbacks over the last couple of seasons. The fear of the unknown – and the fear that their QB would excel elsewhere – won out over the fear of making a mistake by hanging on to a suspect signal-caller.

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Giants QB Daniel Jones – Photo by: USA Today

Now each of those deals looks like a massive mistake.

The Giants signed Daniel Jones to a massive, four-year, $160 million contract in the spring of 2023 despite having a 21-31-1 record at the time. Since signing a contract that pays him an average of $40 million per year, Jones went 1-5 last year as a starter before missing the final 11 games due to a knee injury.

And he started off the season with a loss at Minnesota in which he threw two interceptions, including a pick-six. Since signing his mega contract, Jones has thrown two touchdowns and six interceptions, including three pick-sixes.

Miami signed Tua Tagovailoa, who suffered two concussions during the 2022 season, to a four-year, $212.4 million contract on July 26. The deal includes $167.1 million in guaranteed money.

The knock on Tagovailoa, aside from his injury history, is his record against winning teams, which is now 7-15 after losing at home against the Bills on Thursday Night Football.

Updating the numbers from that X post, Tagovailoa has now thrown 29 touchdowns and 21 interceptions in games against teams with winning records. He threw one TD and three INTs, including a pick-six, in the humiliating 31-10 loss to Buffalo in Miami.

To make matters worse, Tagovailoa suffered his third concussion within two years in the second half on Thursday night. We’ll see what the future holds, but paying $53 million per year to a quarterback who has failed to win big games and has a concussion history is looking like a huge mistake in Miami.

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. and Panthers QB Bryce Young – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Mayfield makes an average of $33.3 million per year – just under $7 million less per year than Jones and $20 million less per year than Tagovailoa. Tampa Bay has an absolute steal – and a far better quarterback – in Mayfield.

It’s too soon to say Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick in Carolina is a bust, but the early results aren’t promising. Greatness typically shows up early, and Young hasn’t shown any greatness yet, evidenced by his 2-15 record. He’s now thrown just 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in his first 17 starts.

Who knows if Mayfield could have flourished in Carolina, where he went 1-5 as a starter in 2022, given the chaos surrounding that franchise from the impatient owner to the tremendous roster turnover? But the Panthers giving up on Mayfield greatly aided the Bucs, their division rival.

So thanks, Carolina – and Cleveland, too! – for Baker Mayfield.

FAB 2. Look Out! Joe Tryon-Shoyinka’s Confidence Is Rising

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka – Photo by: USA Today

Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has been the ultimate tease in Tampa Bay. The first-round pick in 2021 has tantalizing speed and athleticism and he’s had flashes – brief instances –  where he looks like the best player on the field.

There was a two-sack game against Mac Jones in New England in 2021 during his rookie season. His athletic sack of scrambler Lamar Jackson in 2022. His two-sack performance against mobile QB Justin Fields last year.

Yet those games are few and far between.

Perhaps Tryon-Shoyinka’s sack-fumble against Jayden Daniels in the Bucs’ 37-20 win over the Commanders will prove to be the springboard he needs to take his game to a whole new level as he enters his contract year in Tampa Bay.

“It felt good to get a rush where we all rushed together,” Tryon-Shoyinka said. “If you watch the play, Yaya [Diaby] completely killed the tackle and made the quarterback kind of back up and I was already speeding around the edge. And Vita [Vea] knocked the f*cking guard back 30 yards.”

A closer look at this play shows Tryon-Shoyinka attacking the left tackle sooner than he did in years past. That forces the tackle to short set at about three yards behind the line of scrimmage, and once JTS rips past him he’s at the quarterback’s level in the pocket rather than around him. Too often in years past, Tryon-Shoyinka would try to run around tackles and wound up getting wheeled past them, going too far up the arc.

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Commanders QB Jayden Daniels – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs hope that sack can be the sign of things to come for Tryon-Shoyinka, who did not have his fifth-year option picked up by the team this year.

“That feels great – anytime you can get to the quarterback and get the ball out of his hand it’s great, especially Week 1 to start off hot,” Tryon-Shoyinka said. “To roll into a special game against an opponent we’re familiar with in Week 2, it’s definitely a huge start for our defense. We came into the season with so many goals – getting the ball out of the quarterback’s hands every game. So it’s nice to see our hard work paying off.”

Bucs co-defensive coordinator Larry Foote said that Tryon-Shoyinka has struggled with confidence in the past, and it’s important to remember that he plateaued at four sacks his first two seasons before recording a career-high five last year.

“He’s always been a pro since day one, battling his confidence,” Foote said. “He’s in competition and I love the way he’s responded. I tipped my hat off to him last year. A lot of times guys, you know, they get demoted [so] they go in the tank – [that] wasn’t him. He was all hands on deck, helping out on special teams and I really appreciate that. It just speaks to the type of guy he is and his upbringing.”

Tryon-Shoyinka is striving to be more physical and less finesse this year and taking the fight to offensive tackles instead of just trying to run around them like he did in the past.

“If I have the opportunity to get my hands on the chest [of an offensive tackle] I’m going to do that now,” Tryon-Shoyinka said. “I feel good enough, I have enough confidence and power to do that now. It’s definitely a move that is going to be seen more – and hopefully in my repertoire more – a lot this year. I’m excited to see that.”

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Lions QB Jared Goff – Photo by: USA Today

Tryon-Shoyinka nearly who had two sacks on Sunday, but SirVocea Dennis beat him to the other one in the second half. The Bucs will need a confident and sack-happy JTS to help finally beat Jared Goff and the Lions.

Goff was sacked a combined five times in two games last year, including once by Tryon-Shoyinka, but still completed 68% of his passes with a total of four touchdowns and no interceptions versus Tampa bay.

“We have to set the tone and understand what type of game it’s going to be,” Tryon-Shoyinka said. “Getting after the quarterback is always part of the plan. Jared Goff has a good O-line protecting him and they have a good scheme. That run game is hard to stop. Just getting to him is going to be the biggest challenge. We’re excited to take it on. We have the pieces to go after him.

“That’s the key, you can’t let him get into that rhythm. The game is about rhythm, timing and all that. If we’re in our spots where we’re supposed to be, doing our technique and playing our identity as a defense, I think good things will happen.”

It’s only one week, but so far so good for Joe Tryon-Shoyinka.

FAB 3. SirVocea Dennis Could Be Bucs’ X-Factor On Defense vs. Lions

Bucs ILB SirVocea Dennis and Commanders QB Jayden Daniels – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs will be without a couple of impact players on defense as Tampa Bay heads to Detroit to try to tame Jared Goff and the Lions. Defensive tackle Calijah Kancey will miss his second straight game with a calf injury and All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. will be out with an ankle sprain.

Tampa Bay is hopeful that Zyon McCollum clears concussion protocol and can play, in addition to getting defensive tackle Logan Hall back from a foot injury that kept him out of Week 1. 
At full strength last year and with momentum coming off a 32-9 dismantling of the Eagles in the playoffs, the Bucs defense was no match for Goff and the Lions in a 31-23 loss in the NFC Divisional playoffs. So how will a banged-up Bucs defense fare in Detroit again?

If Todd Bowles’ troops are to record an upset, they’ll need a defender or two to step up and be an X-factor. If I had to pick such a candidate, I would go with second-year inside linebacker SirVocea Dennis.

Dennis is coming off his best game as a pro, recording six tackles and his first NFL sack in just 21 plays while platooning with starting inside linebacker K.J. Britt.

“I played well, but I think I could’ve played better,” Dennis said. “You always have to be your harshest critic.”

Britt, a four-year veteran, played 39 plays and recorded five tackles and missed a chance to sack Jayden Daniels. Don’t be surprised if Dennis cuts into Britt’s snap count total this week in Detroit.

Bucs ILB SirVocea Dennis – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Dennis is quicker, faster and more athletic than Britt. He’s being used in the Devin White role as a third-and-long or obvious passing down linebacker because of his ability to blitz and cover. At Pittsburgh, Dennis recorded 15 career sacks, including seven as a senior, in addition two recording two interceptions, including a pick-six.

Since he arrived in Tampa Bay last year as a fifth-round pick, Dennis has far more interceptions than any Bucs linebacker in practice. For a Tampa Bay defense that failed to record an interception on Goff last year, having Dennis’ blitzing ability could bring an added dimension to Round 3 versus the Lions.

Bucs outside linebacker Yaya Diaby, who led the way for Tampa Bay with five QB pressures last week, was excited to see Dennis get his first NFL sack against Jayden Daniels last Sunday.

“I was so happy for Voss,” Diaby said. “I went over there and gave him a big hug. We came in together last year on a mission to make sure we get on the field, and I was super proud of him.”

FAB 4. Cade Otton Could Be Bucs’ X-Factor On Offense vs. Lions

Tampa Bay’s wide receivers went off against Washington last Sunday, catching 16 of Baker Mayfield’s 24 passes for 195 yards and four touchdowns.

Bucs TE Cade Otton – Photo by: USA Today

Chris Godwin led the way with eight receptions on eight targets for 83 yards and a TD, while Mike Evans had five catches for 61 yards and a pair of scores. Rookie wide receiver Jalen McMillan overcame a dropped pass to haul in a 32-yard touchdown on his first NFL reception.

Tight end Cade Otton, who is coming off a tremendous camp and has a great rapport with Baker Mayfield, was seldom used last week. Otton was targeted twice and had just one catch for five yards. In fact, he was the lone tight end to catch a pass against Washington.

Otton and Mayfield had some tremendous chemistry in the playoffs as Tampa Bay’s tight end had a career day versus the Eagles with eight catches on 11 targets for 89 yards and then five catches on eight targets for 65 yards and a touchdown at Detroit the next week.

Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen watched the film of the Lions’ overtime win versus the Rams, and was paying close attention, as Tampa Bay’s offense is very similar to Los Angeles’ attack. Coen came from the Sean McVay tree and spent four seasons in L.A.

He noticed that the Lions played much of the game in their base 4-3 defense – even against the Rams’ three-receiver sets, utilizing all three linebackers in Alex Anzalone, Jack Campbell and Derrick Barnes, who recorded the game-clinching interception against Mayfield in the playoffs.

Bucs TE Cade Otton – Photo by: USA Today

“They played them in base defense the entire game except for on known-passing situations and third down,” Coen said. “That’s something that we have to prepare for, obviously, where they just said, ‘Hey, we’re going to try to make you one-dimensional. We’re going to put base defense on the grass and you’re going to throw it every snap.’ That’s something that we have to have a plan for.

“That was something that you wished you could have gotten more. You wished they would have played the game in nickel, then Sean [McVay] would have been able to do some more that we would have been able to take from in that game. Essentially, they just said, ‘Hey, this is what we’re going to do, and we’re going to dictate the terms of the game.’ That was a little frustrating.”

Otton was a problem in coverage against the Lions linebackers in January, and caught a touchdown against Anzalone in the red zone. With all of the attention that will paid to Evans, Godwin and now McMillan, perhaps Otton has another big day in the Motor City.

FAB 5. Bucs Are Banged Up At The Wrong Time

The Bucs will be missing defensive tackle Calijah Kancey for the second straight week. That stings because out of the five sacks that the team got against Lions quarterback Jared Goff last year, Kancey got two of them – one in Week 6 and one in the playoffs.

After Todd Bowles mistakenly said that Kancey’s injured calf was the same one he hurt last season, ESPN’s Jenna Laine spoke with last year’s first-round pick, who told her it was his other calf that is now injured.

Bucs DT Calijah Kancey – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Kancey didn’t miss a game due to injury in his three years at Pittsburgh, so this is definitely frustrating for both he and the team. There isn’t a rhyme or reason to why these calf injuries keep occurring. It’s just a freak injury apparently as team trainers are all over the players’ hydration intake. The 23-year old grew up in South Florida, so he’s plenty accustomed to the heat and humidity.

Tampa Bay will not rush Kancey back into action, so don’t be surprised if he misses a few more weeks of action. The team tried to rush him back for Week 1 last year after missing most of camp and the entire preseason and he had a setback. But once Kancey was healthy, he played in 15 straight games, including the postseason.

The Bucs anticipate the return of defensive tackle Logan Hall, who had a foot injury that kept him out of action last week. Hall isn’t a great pass rusher and certainly not in Kancey’s class. But he is more of a threat to get to the quarterback than Greg Gaines is.

Tampa Bay’s secondary took a hit with the loss of safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who will be out at least two weeks with an ankle sprain, and the loss of cornerback Bryce Hall to a broken leg and dislocated ankle. Fourth-string cornerback Josh Hayes also has an ankle sprain and will be out for a couple of games.

Yet the Bucs are optimistic that cornerback Zyon McCollum will play after leaving last week’s game with a concussion. Tampa Bay only signed one cornerback, Keenan Isaac, so that’s a good indicator that McCollum will clear concussion protocol. He also was a full participant in Thursday’s practice.

Undrafted free agent rookie Tyrek Funderburk will be the backup cornerback, with Isaac slotted into the CB4 role.

Bucs RT Luke Goedeke – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Yet there is another Buccaneer with a concussion that concerns Tampa Bay more than McCollum. Right tackle Luke Goedeke likely suffered a mild concussion on Sunday and had to leave practice with concussion symptoms halfway through Wednesday’s practice. Goedeke was out on Thursday and even if he clears concussion protocol and can play, trench life is a series of collisions. Do the Bucs want to risk Goedeke missing more time by rushing him back too soon?

Swing tackle Justin Skule is no Goedeke, and the Bucs would be at a clear disadvantage with him being charged with stopping Pro Bowler Aidan Hutchinson, the Lions’ game-wrecker. Don’t be surprised if veteran Robert Hainsey is deployed at right tackle, which is a position he played in college at Notre Dame.

Tampa Bay was at full strength last year and coming off a huge playoff win when they faced the Lions the last time in Detroit – and still lost. It doesn’t help the team’s chances this year in the rematch with so many banged up Bucs.