In a new summer series, I’ll take a look at some Bucs topics for the upcoming season – and explore them with a twist.

Our next topic is – what if Bucs QB Baker Mayfield regresses in 2024?

Inspired by Marvel’s “What If…?” comic books and the Marvel animated series, let’s take a look at some potentially different outcomes to some of the more intriguing storylines in Tampa Bay that nobody sees coming. To be clear, this is not a series of topics that Pewter Report believes will happen or necessarily hopes will happen. Just use your imagination and get ready for some surprises, Tampa Bay fans.

The Background

Former Browns QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

As was the case with my What If Mike Evans Didn’t Get 1,000 Yards This Season? feature, not every “What If?” scenario is necessarily positive in nature. So on the heels of the most positive “What If?” yet – What If The Bucs Win The Super Bowl In 2024? let’s examine the other side of the coin, and ponder a possible regression by Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield this season. After all, if Tampa Bay is going to win the Super Bowl, then Mayfield would have to have a great deal of on-field success as the team’s QB.

But first, let’s give some needed background about this topic. Mayfield is about to enter his seventh season in the NFL and his second year as Tampa Bay’s signal caller. He’s yet to have two really good back-to-back seasons since joining the league as the No. 1 overall pick with Cleveland in the 2018 NFL Draft.

After posting a 6-7 record in Cleveland as a rookie with 3,725 yards, 27 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, Mayfield and the Browns went 6-10 the following season as he tossed a career-high 21 interceptions along with 22 touchdowns and 3,827 yards in 2019. A year later, Mayfield had his best season in Cleveland, throwing for 3,563 yards with 26 touchdowns and just eight interceptions.

Rams QB Baker Mayfield and OC Liam Coen – Photo by: USA Today

Cleveland went 11-5 in 2020, made the playoffs and had an extremely satisfying playoff upset win at Pittsburgh in the first round of the postseason. The Browns would lose in the Divisional round of the playoffs the next week at Kansas City to a Chiefs team that would eventually make the Super Bowl and lose to the Bucs, 31-9.

In 2021, Mayfield missed a few starts after suffering an injury to his non-throwing shoulder and regressed statistically. The former Heisman Trophy winner passed for just 3,010 yards with 17 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. The up-and-down nature of Mayfield’s four years in Cleveland prompted the organization to move on from him in 2022 and trade for controversial Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, who was mired in a sexual misconduct scandal.

Mayfield was traded to Carolina before training camp in 2022 and had his worst year statistically for the woeful Panthers. He was 1-5 as a starter, throwing for 1,313 yards with six touchdowns and six interceptions before an ankle injury sidelined him. Carolina decided not to start him again when he was healthy and waived him late in the season, when he was claimed off waivers by the Los Angeles Rams.

Mayfield started four games in place of the injured Matthew Stafford and went 1-3 as a starter. He passed for 850 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions while spending five weeks working with Rams offensive assistant Liam Coen, who is the Bucs’ new offensive coordinator.

Bucs OC Dave Canales and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Needing a Hail Mary to revive his flailing career, Mayfield signed a cheap, one-year, prove-it deal with Tampa Bay and flourished under Dave Canales last season. Mayfield passed for a career-high 4,044 yards with a career-best 28 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions while leading the Bucs to a 9-8 record and a home Wild Card playoff win over the Eagles, 32-9. After he made his first Pro Bowl – and was named the Offensive MVP – Mayfield cashed in on a three-year, $100 million extension with Tampa Bay.

Now, Mayfield will attempt to do something in 2024 that he’s yet to do in his NFL career – have back-to-back good years leading a team. With that lucrative contract extension come the expectations of Mayfield having another big year statistically, but also leading the Bucs to a fifth straight playoff appearance and improving on last year’s 9-8 record.

What If Bucs QB Baker Mayfield Regresses In 2024?

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

But what if that doesn’t happen this year? What if Baker Mayfield regresses statistically? What happens to his future with the Bucs after one bad year?

There are so many different scenarios to contemplate because so many things can be derived off just one open-ended topic. What does regression mean as it pertains to Mayfield? Because him throwing for 27 touchdowns and 14 interception like he did as a rookie could mean one thing, but him tossing 22 touchdowns and 21 interceptions like he did in 2018 could mean something far different.

In other words, how bad of a year would it take for the Bucs’ confidence in Mayfield to be shaken? And does a poor performance from Mayfield in 2024 occur due to a significant injury like the one he suffered in 2021? That would obviously impact the team’s feelings about Mayfield as well.

And does Mayfield’s decline in 2024 coincide with the rise of Kyle Trask? In other words, due to injury or ineffectiveness, does Trask replace Mayfield and lead the Bucs to the playoffs in his place? That could create quite a conundrum for the franchise given the fact that Trask, a former second-round pick, is in a contract year and would be a free agent in 2025.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

If Mayfield is out of the lineup and Trask is ineffective as a starter, the Bucs would likely move on from Trask in 2025 after seeing him have an opportunity to start – and ultimately fail. That could mean that Tampa Bay would pursue another quarterback in the 2025 NFL Draft to challenge Mayfield for the right to start.

And if the Bucs didn’t make the playoffs, the team could be looking at a Top 12, Top 10 or perhaps a Top 5 draft pick where one of the best quarterbacks could be available to Tampa Bay. Under this scenario, there could also be a regime change as well.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles currently has a 17-17 record and a 1-2 record in the postseason. If the Bucs have a double-digit losing season and the offense didn’t perform with Coen’s play-calling, then general manager Jason Licht could be prompted to fire Bowles and Coen and get a new coaching staff in place for 2025.

Is that far enough down the rabbit hole for you?

Baker Mayfield Pro Bowl – Photo by: USA Today

It would take a monumental fall from grace for the Bucs to move on from Mayfield after just one year of his new contract. And at this stage of his career – and with the success that he had last season – I can’t see any of those scenarios happening. I don’t have a crystal ball, but all signs point to Mayfield having at least a similar kind of season in Coen’s offense – of which he has some familiarity due to his five weeks with the Rams in 2022.

Given the fact that his supporting cast from 2023 is back, more weapons have been added for him to throw to, and the Bucs offensive line should be better this year, I think Mayfield is poised for back-to-back successful seasons for the first time in his career. If he is going to get derailed in 2024, it will be due to an injury rather than his own ineffectiveness.

Mayfield has matured as a quarterback and an individual and has plenty of experience – good and bad – to draw from. We saw him play a significant role in turning the Bucs’ fortunes around from a 4-7 pitfall to a strong, 5-1 finish last season.

Baker Mayfield is as resilient as they come. I think he ultimately fights off any regression tooth and nail.

Other articles in Scott Reynolds’ What If? summer series:

What If Joe Tryon-Shoyinka Led The Bucs In Sacks?

What If The Bucs Wore Orange Pants For The Creamsicle Game?

What If Mike Evans Didn’t Get 1,000 Yards This Season?

What If Bucky Irving Is Better Than Rachaad White?

What If The Bucs Win The Super Bowl In 2024?