Betting The Bucs is a weekly segment that focuses on the gambling lines for each Tampa Bay game during the season. We’ll take a look into different aspects of the game to help you make your decision on whether to bet for or against the Bucs. We’ll also break down various prop bets to take before you watch on Sunday.

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The Line: Bucs -5, O/U 49.5

Feel free to play your favorite Halloween music as you read this. After all, it’s scary to think that, as good as the Bucs are, they’ve yet to cover a game on the road. While Tom Brady has struck more fear in opponents than Jason Vorhees, Michael Myers and Freddy Krueger combined, he hasn’t been as stellar away from the confines of Tampa.

Between that streak and the importance of this divisional game, I think we’re in for a knock ’em down, drag ’em out kind of game that comes down to a late finish. Because it’s a battle that has emotional ties to it, we’re not anticipating a very high-scoring afternoon.

Even when the Bucs beat the Saints in the divisional round of the postseason, the Bucs weren’t able to consistently move the ball down the field for long drives. They benefitted off turnovers and short fields, which you just can’t expect weekly. This matchup hasn’t been the best for Mike Evans either. I think the Bucs will be able to get points, but not as easily as they have in other games this season.

On the flip side, Jameis Winston has no one to throw to at receiver, and the Saints offense really struggles outside of Alvin Kamara. The Bucs defense turned it up with five turnovers last week, so I’m looking for another great pass rushing performance by Shaq Barrett and maybe a pick for Antoine Winfield Jr.

The under has hit the last two times these teams played dating back to last season. The Bucs were also 1-2 against the spread, but won the most important of their three games. With it being such a close game where there’s not much margin for error, Tampa Bay wins, but New Orleans gets the cover. Both defenses step up as well to keep the game in reach with low numbers.

The Pick: Saints +5, Under 49.5

Prop Bets:

Bucs 1H -3 (-110)

It’s my favorite bet in football. The Bucs cover this every single week without blinking. They’ve done a good job of building leads early, and that trend keeps going in the Big Easy.

Mike Evans Under 69.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Evans has been limited by the Saints as of late, especially in the Brady era. He had just six catches for 69 yards and two touchdowns in three games last season. I’m not picking him to break his 2020 season total vs the Saints when he’s going against a very similar defense.

Chris Godwin Touchdown (+110)

If Evans struggles, then someone else has to get the ball. I’m not expecting Godwin to rack up a lot of yards in this one either, but he’s always a good candidate to find the end zone in big games.

Bucs O 1.5 FGs (-149)

Last week I took the under on this and it hit. This is a different week though, with a better defense. Plus, the Bucs are on the road. Ryan Succop also had two field goal attempts last week, going 1-2. Now that he’s indoors this week, there’s no excuses to miss any. With the Bucs inability to drive all the way down the field all the time, they settle for three at least twice.

Leonard Fournette To Have More Rushing Yards Than Alvin Kamara (-106)

Neither player should put a stamp on the ground game with the defenses they’re going against. You’re really relying on the Bucs to flex their run-stopping muscles, and the addition of Lavonte David will definitely help the cause. The Saints also just traded for Mark Ingram, who could take away some rushing attempts from Kamara. Meanwhile, the Bucs will stick with Fournette for the majority of the game, sprinkling in Ronald Jones here and there. Fournette has been in the zone lately, and he’s playing in his hometown with a lot on the line.