It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two big statements, two probing questions and two bold predictions. The Bucs fell to 6-8 on the season after blowing a 17-point lead against the Bengals on Sunday. Four turnovers and a turnover on downs helped propel Cincinnati to outscore Tampa Bay 31-6 in the second half. Despite the loss, the Bucs still have a one-game lead in the NFC South division and look to get back on the winning track in Arizona on Christmas night.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1: Bowles May Have To Win NFC South To Keep His Job

There are two schools of thought inside the walls of the AdventHealth Training Center when it comes to the future of head coach Todd Bowles. While the Bucs have certainly had a disappointing 6-8 season so far, there is a strong chance that Bowles survives this down year following a 13-4 season a year ago.

The first school of thought is that the organization knows it’s the offense and lack of point production that has been the culprit for the team’s sub-.500 record. Not Bowles’ defense, which was placed in a tough spot time and again in the third quarter as the Bucs turned the ball over on five straight possessions – the first four on Tampa Bay’s side of the field. For the most part, the Bucs defense has played well enough to win on a weekly basis and ranks 10th in the league in scoring defense, allowing just 20.6 points per game.

After scoring around 30 points per game in 2020 and 2021, Tampa Bay’s offense is averaging 17.6 points per game this year – nearly two touchdowns less each week. That ranks 28th in the NFL and falls on the shoulders of offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich’s poor play-calling and lack of creativity in 2022. Leftwich has been exposed as a below-average play-caller given a significantly less talented offensive roster to work with this year.

Bucs OC Byron Leftwich and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Remember that Bowles inherited this coaching staff – Bruce Arians’ coaching staff – on March 30. That’s two weeks after the start of free agency. Any assistant Bowles might have wanted to add would’ve already been on a staff elsewhere so late in the offseason. So, Bucs ownership and general manager Jason Licht should be willing to let Bowles make some changes to his staff, including finding his own offensive coordinator, next year.

The Glazers have also given every head coach they’ve hired two years to win and right the ship. Lovie Smith got two years – even after going a dismal 2-14 in his first year in Tampa Bay in 2014. Greg Schiano got two years before Smith.

But the other school of thought is that if Bowles’ Buccaneers don’t make the playoffs after leading the NFC South all season, that could be a real source of contention for the Glazers. Remember, the Glazers fired Jon Gruden in 2008 after the Bucs started the season 9-3 and in the driver’s seat to win the division, but fell to 9-7 after an 0-4 finish.

Part of the reason for the collapse was due to Monte Kiffin deciding to bail on the Bucs at the end of the season to coach with his son, Lane, at the University of Tennessee. The Glazers had just given Gruden a four-year extension earlier in the year, too. But the fact that Tampa Bay missed the playoffs after a 9-3 start was enough to fire Gruden and general manager Bruce Allen.

So, if Bowles goes 0-3 or 1-2 down the stretch and the Bucs fail to make the playoffs, it could put him in jeopardy. Especially if Tom Brady doesn’t return for 2023 and the Bucs might be forced into a reset/rebuild mode.

The next three weeks will be interesting when it comes to how Bowles is perceived – inside and outside of the organization.

STATEMENT 2: Bowles Is Finding Some Biscuits

Lost in Tampa Bay’s 34-23 loss to Cincinnati that was marked by the Bengals outscoring the Bucs, 31-6, in the second half was the fact that head coach Todd Bowles might have found some biscuits.

As in “no risk it, no biscuit” – Bruce Arians’ catchphrase and coaching style.

Bowles has scoffed at the notion that he’s a conservative coach this season, but he’s proven that he is far too often. Look no further than the end of regulation in the Cleveland game when the Bucs weren’t aggressive in trying to go for a game-winning field goal. Bowles and the Bucs settled for overtime and lost to the Browns, 23-17.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Faced with second-and-3 from the Bengals’ 4-yard line early in the first quarter, offensive coordinator Leftwich called for two straight passes that almost resulted in an end zone interception and a 1-yard run by Tom Brady when all of his options were covered. After settling for a field goal on fourth-and-goal from the Bengals 2-yard line to go up 3-0, Bowles decided to go for it on the next fourth down – and wound up doing it twice on Tampa Bay’s second drive.

Bowles, who has been “Mr. No Risk It,” finally found some biscuits.

The gamble paid off as Brady found Russell Gage in the back corner of the end zone for a 1-yard touchdown on fourth down, and more importantly, a 10-0 lead near the start of the second quarter. At the start of the third quarter, Bowles even went for a fake punt on fourth-and-1 at the Bucs’ own 26.

A fake punt?

Who is this guy?!

Yes, it didn’t work. For some reason, Giovani Bernard didn’t get the call and botched the fake punt attempt, getting tackled for a 2-yard loss at the Tampa Bay 16-yard line. But the process was sound, and perhaps an encouraging sign of things to come from Bowles moving forward.

“It was a fourth-and-one and they had a front that we could take advantage of,” Bowles said. “It was blocked well. We could have run for four or five yards, but we missed the ball.”

Let’s hope that Bowles doesn’t get dismayed by the fact that the Bucs lost the game and sticks to being more bold in his decision-making in the future. Chances are it will pay off for Tampa Bay – and Bowles – if it continues.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1: Was This The Best Game Davis Has Played?

Pro Football Focus gave Davis a questionable 68 overall grade and a 71.3 coverage grade for his efforts in covering Ja’Marr Chase on Sunday. Davis actually graded higher in coverage against Dallas in Week 1 (73.6), versus Atlanta (75.8), at Pittsburgh (80.7) and against Seattle (72.3). But Chase is likely the best receiver Davis has covered this year.

Bucs CB Carlton Davis III – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

And Davis covered Chase exclusively.

It’s rare that Davis moves from his left cornerback spot, but from the first snap of the game, in which Davis lined up at right cornerback, the Bucs’ star cornerback followed Chase wherever he went. Chase was targeted eight times when covered by Davis and only came up with three receptions for 32 yards when that matchup occurred. Chase wound up catching a touchdown in zone coverage, but safety Keanu Neal was credited with allowing that TD to happen.

Davis also broke up a career-high four passes and came up with his first interception of the season. It was Davis’ first interception since Week 1 in 2021 and it was a studly performance against Chase. And hopefully a sign of things to come from Davis.

QUESTION 2: Is Tryon-Shoyinka Ready To Break Out?

Not only did Davis have a career game against Cincinnati, outside linebacker Joe Tryon-Shoyinka also had one of his best efforts. Tryon-Shoyinka had a season-best 82.6 PFF grade with a 75.5 pass rush grade. That’s the second-best grade of his career with only his 88.8 grade (80 pass rush grade) against New Orleans last year topping it.

Bucs OLBs Anthony Nelson and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs’ 2021 first-round pick has had an up-and-down season in terms of production. Prior to Sunday’s game versus the Bengals, Tryon-Shoyinka had just seven tackles and one sack in his previous four games.

Against Cincinnati, Tryon-Shoyinka had four tackles, which matched his season high, in addition to half a sack he split with Anthony Nelson. The second-year edge rusher now has four sacks on the season to match last year’s total with three games left.

While he’s asked to rush the passer more than he’s asked to drop into coverage, Tryon-Shoyinka’s athleticism has shown up there, too. JTS had a pass breakup in coverage against the Bengals and finished the game with an 81.8 coverage grade. On the season, Tryon-Shoyinka has been targeted six times and has only allowed three receptions for 14 yards.

Is he ready to turn the corner and make more plays that affect the quarterback either with his pass rush or his coverage? The organization hopes so, as there has been some disappointment he’s not been more of a force since Shaquil Barrett went on injured reserve after Week 8.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1: Aided By Playing Bad QBs, Bucs Finish 9-8

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Admittedly, my predictions haven’t been good this year, and I’m going out on a limb here, but I think the Bucs rally down the stretch and win three straight to finish 9-8. Of course, that means Tampa Bay wins the NFC South for a second straight year and automatically makes the playoffs.

Due to shortcomings on offense, each win will be by a thin margin (think comeback wins against the Rams and Saints), but the fact that the Bucs will be playing against lesser QBs helps. Tampa Bay will face Trace McSorley in Arizona, Carolina’s Sam Darnold and rookie Desmond Ridder in Atlanta to end the season.

PREDICTION 2: Brady Returns To Tampa Bay For Another Season

Just a hunch, but Tom Brady returns for one more season as the starting quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at age 46. And he’ll have a new offensive coordinator to work with. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, Bucs fans.