In Part 1 of Bucky Irving, Broken Tackles And The Bucs I looked at the Oregon running back through the lens of one of his greatest traits: forcing missed tackles. The Bucs noted it was one of their favorite things about the Ducks superstar.

As a reminder, here is some data that is available from the public site Pro Football Focus.

Irving ranked fourth in missed tackles forced with 69, and ranked 20th in yards after contact per carry at 3.99 amongst all of the running backs in this year’s draft. Irving forced a missed tackle at an equivalent rate to 37.1% of his carries, which ranked third amongst all running backs with at least 150 carries last year.

To test the Bucs’ assertion that Irving was a strong tackle breaker despite being undersized for his position I dove into the underlying data to see his performance agnostic of the quality of the defenses he faced. To do so I looked at the total forced missed tackle and yards after contact allowed rates of each defense he faced last year to create an expected result. The results supported the Bucs conclusion that Irving was better than expected at getting extra yards and making defenders miss.

Irving forced 24 more missed tackles and averaged 3/4 of an extra yard after contact per carry over the course of 2023.

Was Bucky Irving The Best Pick For The Bucs?

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: USA Today

Oregon’s Bucky Irving was one of six running backs taken in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL draft. Tennessee’s Jaylen Wright was selected five picks ahead of him.

But Irving was the first of five running backs taken over the course of 10 picks in the fourth round. Clemson’s Will Shipley, Kentucky’s Ray Davis, Louisville’s Isaac Guerendo and Wisconsin’s Braelon Allen were all taken shortly after Irving.

Here is how they stack up using the same benchmarks I used to strip away quality of defense when evaluating Irving.

Will Shipley

Given that the Bucs’ stated performance after contact was something they were looking for in a back it is obvious why they did not select Shipley over Irving.

Of the five backs evaluated, Shipley rated dead last in missed tackle forced over expected and yards after contact over expected. As a matter of fact, Shipley under-performed his expected performance in both metrics, giving back almost 50 yards after contact throughout 2023.

Ray Davis

Unlike Shipley, Ray Davis over-performed his expected missed tackle forced and yards after contact rates.

But if you look a little closer you will see the majority of Davis’ MTFOE (missed tackles forced over expected) and YACPCOE (yards after contact per carry over expected – I know these aren’t the best acronyms) are being propped up by one fantastic game against Florida. Take that one game out and his missed tackles forced over expected rate falls to +2% and his yards after contact per carry over expected goes to a slight negative (-0.07).

Davis was a logical fit for the Bucs given that he played last year for new Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen at Kentucky. But now considering that Tampa Bay was seeking a back who could create yards after contact it’s now understandable that Davis wasn’t the right fit for the team.

Isaac Guerendo

Guerendo was the most interesting player of the group. He forced exactly the number of missed tackles as expected based on the defenses he faced. But his 0.80 yards after contact per carry over expected was the best mark of the group.

This can lead to one of three theories. Either he created more yards per missed tackle, had a knack for falling forward better than most, or a combination of both. It should also be noted that Guerendo had the smallest sample size of the lot. He had eight games of 10 carries or less, three of five carries or less and just two of 15 carries or more. He also had an outlier game against Virginia Tech, that if removed would bring his YACPCOE down to +0.34.

This makes for multiple reasons that could have caused the Bucs to shy away from the Louisville product.

Braelon Allen

In my mind Allen had the best chance to be the Bucs pick if they decided to go in a different direction from Irving. Allen ranked second in both metrics including ahead of Irving in yards after contact per carry over expected.

Wisconsin RB Braelon Allen – Photo by: USA Today

Allen had multiple games where he significantly outperformed expectations and I would say his results are legitimate. So why Irving over Allen?

The answer does not lie in this data set. Both backs are relatively young (Allen is 20 and Irving is 21), and both don’t have a ton of tread on their tires.

Irving has 475 career carries while Allen has totaled 596. It could be that the Bucs preferred Irving’s receiving skills. It could be something else, and you can see why he may have been a consideration.

From what Pewter Report heard was that he didn’t run hard like a big back during the 2023 season the way he did in 2022. The Bucs believe that despite his size, the 5-foot-9, 192-pound Irving actually ran harder last year.

Does Data Support The Bucs Decision?

Bucky Irving leads the pack in missed tackles force over expected at +13% and he ranked third in yards after contact per carry over expected in a close grouping with Braelon Allen and Isaac Guerendo. All of this supports the Bucs’ decision to take Irving over the rest of the backs available in this grouping.

What will be interesting is to track the stability of these metrics as each back moves into the NFL where each will face better defenses and tackles will be harder to elude and break at the next level.