Losers of three in a row, six of their last seven and seven of their last nine, the 7-8 Bucs went down to Miami on the final Sunday of the 2025 calendar year looking to get back on track and stay alive in their pursuit of a fifth straight NFC South title and a sixth consecutive playoff appearance.

Tampa Bay knew it would have a win-and-in scenario in Week 18 against Carolina if it could beat 6-9 Miami on Sunday. Alternatively, Todd Bowles and Co. would remain alive in the race even with a loss as long as Carolina lost to Seattle on Sunday as well. The doomsday scenario was a loss to the Dolphins and a Panthers win over the Seahawks, as that would eliminate the Bucs and hand the division title over to Dave Canales and his team, rendering next weekend’s season finale meaningless.

As it turned out, the scenario that unfolded was the one that was the most frustrating for Buccaneer fans without the team being eliminated, although some would argue that would’ve been less frustrating than what actually played out. Tampa Bay saw an early 7-0 lead turn into a 17-7 halftime deficit and eventually a 20-17 loss to Miami. That dropped the team to 7-9 on the season and made it four losses in a row, seven losses in the last eight games and eight losses over the last ten.

But up in Charlotte, the Panthers couldn’t take care of their business, instead losing to the Seahawks by a score of 27-10.

That means the game between the 7-9 Bucs and 8-8 Panthers at Raymond James Stadium next weekend will decide the NFC South. Despite Bowles’ team continuing its freefall, it somehow, some way still controls its own destiny down to the very end of the 2025 regular season.

Here’s a full recap of Sunday’s loss for Tampa Bay at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens:

Dolphins 20, Bucs 17

The Dolphins got the ball to open up the game and promptly went three-and-out, and with a 15-yard return by Kameron Johnson, the Bucs offense began their day from their own 32-yard line. Things started off on the right foot for Tampa Bay offensively, as Sean Tucker converted a 4th & 1 near midfield early in the drive and Baker Mayfield found Jalen McMillan for 18 yards on a 3rd & 7 to keep the ball moving.

After Mayfield hit McMillan for 13 more yards later in the drive, he then connected with Chris Godwin Jr. for a 5-yard touchdown on another third down to give the Bucs an early 7-0 lead. The opening drive for the offense went 68 yards in 14 plays and took 7:27 off the clock.

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Sam Navarro

The Dolphins had an immediate response, though, and went on to dominate the rest of the first half. First, it was rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers connecting with a wide open Theo Wease Jr. for a 63-yard touchdown on 3rd & 8 to draw Miami even at 7-7.

Then, after the offense got to a 4th & 1 at the Dolphins’ 49-yard line, Todd Bowles elected to take the delay of game penalty and punt the ball away, playing the field position game and trusting his defense. And that immediately backfired.

The Dolphins offense quickly got 27 yards over three run plays, then Ewers found Greg Dulcich for 23 yards to the Bucs’ 37. So much for playing the field position game, huh? Jaylen Wright then ran for 32 more yards to the 5-yard line and while tackles for loss by Yaya Diaby and Haason Reddick held Miami to a field goal try, Riley Patterson’s 29-yarder gave the home team a 10-7 lead halfway through the second quarter.

It only got worse from there, with Mayfield soon underthrowing McMillan on a deep ball and getting intercepted by Jason Marshall Jr.

Dolphins S Jason Marshall- Photo by: IMAGN Images – Nathan Ray Seebeck

The Tampa Bay defense badly needed to pick up the offense after the turnover, but that’s clearly far too much to ask for these days. Instead, Ewers led a nine-play, 76-yard drive and ended it with an 11-yard touchdown pass to Dulcich to put the Dolphins up 17-7 with 1:43 to go in the first half.

Looking to stop a 17-0 Miami run, the Tampa Bay offense couldn’t get out of its own way on the ensuing possession. Penalties on Graham Barton and Cade Otton (though his was admittedly a ghost call) set the Bucs back and even when Chase McLaughlin came on to rescue something out of the second quarter, his 55-yard field goal attempt was blocked. That meant a 17-7 deficit for Tampa Bay heading into the locker room at halftime.

Whatever went on in the Buccaneer locker room at halftime clearly didn’t help matters, either, as the offense immediately went three-and-out to start the third quarter before Riley Dixon’s punt went just 27 yards.

But the Tampa Bay defense finally created some momentum when it returned to the field, with a Yaya Diaby sack putting Miami behind the sticks and forcing an eventual punt.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Sam Navarro

On the ensuing possession for the Buccaneer offense, Mayfield made some critical plays with his legs. After scrambling for 2 yards on a 3rd & 1 and later hitting Tez Johnson for a 17-yard gain to the Dolphins’ 30, Mayfield scrambled for 11 more yards on a 3rd & 10 to keep the drive alive. But after getting down to the 7-yard line, the drive stalled.

On 3rd & Goal, Mayfield fumbled on a pump fake, recovered it and ran out of bounds, leaving the offense to settle for a 33-yard McLaughlin field goal. That still got the Bucs within 17-10 with 3:49 left in the third quarter.

Miami answered right back, going down the field easily and getting the field goal back to go up 20-10 early in the fourth quarter.

After the two teams traded punts, the Bucs looked to get themselves back within striking distance as the fourth quarter winded down. Another big catch-and-run by McMillan and another escape job by Mayfield helped get them into Dolphins territory, but then another horrible Mayfield interception all but finished things off as the home team took back over up 10 with the clock quickly fading.

Even after the Bucs defense got a stop and the offense had one last chance, Bradley Chubb got to Mayfield for a sack-fumble, the veteran quarterback’s third turnover of the day.

The game felt effectively over by the time the offense got the ball back one last time, but a three-play, 91-yard drive at least got Tampa Bay within 20-17. A 59-yard catch and run by Godwin was the big play on the drive, which ended with a Mike Evans touchdown catch. But after an unsuccessful onside kick attempt, Ewers kneeled the game out and sent the Bucs to a 20-17 defeat.

Baker Mayfield finished the day 33-of-44 for 346 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions and a fumble. Jalen McMillan led the way for Tampa Bay receivers with seven catches for 114 yards, while Chris Godwin Jr. added seven catches for 108 yards and a touchdown.

The run game went nowhere against one of the worst run defenses in the league, with the Bucs totaling 53 yards on the ground as Bucky Irving was held to 2.1 yards per carry over nine carries.

On the other side, Quinn Ewers shredded the Bucs in his second career start, going 14-of-22 for 172 yards and two touchdowns. Yaya Diaby was just about the only positive on that side of the ball for Tampa Bay, as he notched his seventh sack of the season and added another tackle for loss.

The Bucs (7-9) somehow remain alive in the NFC South race, which will be decided next weekend when the Panthers (8-8) visit Raymond James Stadium. The date and kickoff time for that Week 18 contest will be announced in the next day or so once Week 17 results are in and any other playoff scenarios are finalized.