Aside from the fact that the game-winning field goal by Zane Gonzalez was doinked in off the upright, the way the Bucs lost Sunday night’s NFC Wild Card game to the Commanders was actually pretty predictable.

Because really, it was a fitting end to Tampa Bay’s 2024 season. When it came down to it, this loss was a microcosm of the team’s problems all season long.

There are three verifiable truths about both Sunday’s 23-20 loss to the Commanders and the Bucs’ season as a whole:

1. The biggest threat to the Bucs offense was the Bucs offense itself.
2. If the offense couldn’t be perfect (or at least close to it), the defense couldn’t make up for it.
3. If the defense was on the field and needing a crucial stop at the end of the game, the Bucs had essentially already lost.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and Commanders LB Bobby Wagner Photo by: USA Today

Credit the Commanders offense for its ability to sustain drives and keep Baker Mayfield and his offense on the sideline for much of Sunday night’s game. Washington had a 35:26-24:34 advantage in time of possession, after all. But speaking to that first truth, Tampa Bay’s offense made two key mistakes that played a major role in the loss.

The first was Mayfield’s fumble deep in his own territory that led to a Commanders touchdown and a 20-17 lead for the visitors.

The second was the early snap from rookie center Graham Barton that led to lost yardage on a big third down. From there, the Bucs kicked a game-tying field goal with 4:41 to go instead of draining more clock and potentially going on to take the lead.

Former NFL offensive lineman and current FOX NFL commentator Brian Baldinger perfectly summed up these two plays in a recent video post on his X account.

That’s where the first truth was fulfilled. Tampa Bay’s offense was hard to stop all year and when it fell short, it was often its own doing. Just look at the Week 3 loss to the Broncos and the Week 16 loss to the Cowboys, both of which featured two turnovers and were two of the only games this season in which the offense was truly disjointed. The Bucs only had the one turnover on Sunday night against the Commanders, but again, two of the biggest hindrances to their offense’s success were self-inflicted.

But no one would argue that this was the Bucs’ biggest problem in 2024. In fact, perhaps this wasn’t a fitting end for the offense, which was one of the league’s best all year. Rather, it was the way things ended for the defense that felt the most appropriate.

Bucs Defense Once Again Fails To Come Through When It Was Needed

Of the aforementioned truths about Sunday’s loss and the season as a whole, the last two were the bigger concerns all year long for the Bucs — and both were the fault of Todd Bowles’ defense.

Commanders WR Terry McLaurin and Bucs CB Josh Hayes – Photo by: USA Today

As rare as it was for the Tampa Bay offense to struggle in 2024, the times in which it did were when Bowles’ defense needed to pick up the slack. And the group just never really could.

The Bucs rarely had that big, crucial stop in them this year. They really could’ve used one after Mayfield’s fourth-quarter fumble in the season-ending loss to the Commanders. And they came close to getting it, too, forcing Washington into a fourth-and-goal situation.

But as was the case too many times this season and on Sunday night, it was close but no cigar for Tampa Bay’s defense. On that fourth-and-goal at the 5-yard line, Jayden Daniels found a wide-open Terry McLaurin for a go-ahead touchdown against backup cornerback Josh Hayes.

Now, it’s hard to ask the defense to get a stop when the opposition gets to take over at its own 13-yard line. But even holding the offense to three points instead of seven could’ve made a huge difference in that situation. And once it was clear that Washington was going to go for it on fourth down once again, the defense really had a chance to come through and save the day after the turnover with a big play.

But the Bucs defense didn’t have that big play in it. The group rarely did this year.

Of course, Tampa Bay’s defense would get another chance to pick up the offense after the snap miscue forced a game-tying field goal. The Commanders got the ball back with 4:41 to play, and a stop would get the ball back to Mayfield with a chance to win the game late.

Tampa Bay got Daniels and Co. to third-and-6 quickly… then gave up a 21-yard completion to Dyami Brown, who beat Hayes in coverage. And even on an eventual third-and-2 in Buccaneer territory, a stop would’ve at least gotten the ball back to Mayfield and the offense down three with around 45 seconds to nab a game-tying field goal. Defensive tackle Calijah Kancey nearly made the play, but once he didn’t, there was no one else to bail him out.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and safeties Antoine Winfield Jr. and Mike Edwards – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

And it was right there that the third truth reared its ugly head. When the Bucs defense was on the field late in the game and needing a stop this season, it usually led right to a loss.

That was the case in the Week 5 overtime loss to the Falcons in Atlanta. It was the case again in the Week 9 overtime loss to the Chiefs in Kansas City. The defense then failed to get a stop in the Week 10 home loss to the 49ers, leading to a walkoff loss on a field goal.

And then came Sunday night’s season-ender. The Commanders got the ball back with 4:41 to play and the Bucs offense never saw the ball again. Washington ate up the final 4:41, with a game-winning 37-yard field goal at the death serving as Tampa Bay’s fourth walkoff loss of the year.

So yeah, for the 2024 Bucs defense, this was a fitting end.