A new Pewter Report Roundtable debuts every Tuesday on PewterReport.com. Each week, the Pewter Reporters tackle another tough question. This week’s prompt: What is your revised prediction for the Bucs’ 2024 season?

Scott Reynolds: Eight Or Nine Wins Seem Like The Most The Bucs Can Get Now

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

In my preseason predictions edition of SR’s Fab 5 back in early September, I had the Bucs with a 6-2 record heading into Kansas City to play the Chiefs. I had Tampa Bay 4-2 entering home games against Baltimore and Atlanta – both of which I expected the Bucs to win. Instead, the team lost those games and is 4-4 instead of the 6-2 record that I predicted. The bad news is that I also predicted losses to the Chiefs on the road in Week 9 and the 49ers at home in Week 10. I still feel like those will occur. So instead of being 6-4 heading into the bye week, I believe Tampa Bay will be 4-6.

So will that cause me to rethink my 10-7 season prediction for Tampa Bay? You bet. I originally had the Bucs going 4-3 down the stretch in the remaining seven games. The wins would come against the Giants, Raiders and Panthers twice, while the losses come at the hands of the Chargers, Cowboys and Saints, who for some reason, play the Bucs much better in Tampa than they do in New Orleans.

In order for Tampa Bay to hit my original 10-win mark, a 4-6 squad would have to finish 6-1 after the bye week. That would be like a similar situation as last year when the team bottomed out at 4-7 before a Herculean 5-1 finish got the Bucs to nine wins and a third straight NFC South title.

I don’t think Tampa Bay will be as fortunate this season. Unlike a year ago, this Bucs team has battled injuries all season, starting in Week 1, and the defense was playing much better last season. Now, each week sees a different Bucs starter (or two) out with a serious injury, and Todd Bowles’ horrendous defense has been the culprit in most of the team’s losses this year. I can see the Bucs beating the Giants, Raiders, sweeping the Panthers and possibly beating the Saints at home if New Orleans continues to be in disarray.

But eight or nine wins seems like the limit for this year’s Bucs team. My head says eight wins, but put me down optimistically at 9-8 I guess. And that begs two questions – does Tampa Bay win enough to qualify for one of the NFC Wild Card spots, and do the Bucs keep Todd Bowles on as head coach in 2025? I’m not sure about either.

Matt Matera: Bucs Can Go 9-8, But Might Not Make The Postseason

The Bucs at least showed on the offensive side that they can still produce – even without having Chris Godwin for the rest of the season and Mike Evans until after the bye week. Scoring 24 points, (the defense also had a safety) led by a good running game and the emergence of tight end Cade Otton proved that they can stay within most games.  The biggest question on offense is at wide receiver with who can step up. Maybe Rakim Jarrett is that answer until Evans is back.

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

What is without a doubt most concerning for Tampa Bay is the team’s lack of ability to stop anybody. At the beginning of the year one would think that the Bucs could hang with the Chiefs, who they play on Monday night at Arrowhead. But who are we kidding? The reality is hardly any adjustments have been made, and this is the worst the defense has looked under Todd Bowles.

If Kirk Cousins can torch the Bucs, Patrick Mahomes certainly will be able to. Tampa Bay had the reinforcements come in with Calijah Kancey and Antoine Winfield Jr. returning, as neither played against the Falcons the first time. Edge rusher Yaya Diaby hasn’t lived up to the hype we all gave him. Nobody is walking through that door to the save the Bucs. They have to save themselves.

My initial record prediction was 10-7 for Tampa Bay. I’m moving that slightly down to 9-8 as the Bucs currently stand at 4-4. As good as I feel about their offense, that’s how bad I feel about their defense. They have to find a way to split between the Chiefs and 49ers before the bye. The schedule lines up after that where there are very winnable games against the Giants, Panthers and Raiders. The next two after that against the Chargers and Cowboys are toss ups.

After another winnable game facing the Panthers, who knows how the Saints will look at in Week 18? It’d be ridiculous to say the Bucs can win out after the bye, but it won’t be as disastrous as some expect.

Bailey Adams: We May Be In For A Repeat Of 2023

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

I went with a 10-7 record prediction before this season, but through eight games, 4-4 isn’t where I expected the Bucs to be. I thought they’d at least split their two games with the Falcons, plus I thought they’d get a home win over the Broncos in Week 3. Now, I might’ve predicted a loss to the Eagles in Week 4, so maybe those Broncos and Eagles results cancel out.

Regardless, this team is probably a game behind schedule for my 10-7 prediction. And with the way this defense is playing, I’m thinking there’s just about no shot they find a way to get back on that schedule and still reach 10 wins.

So, as far as a revised prediction, I’ll roll with 9-8. I don’t think the Bucs win again until after the bye, meaning it’ll be a four-game losing streak heading into that Week 11 break. Todd Bowles and Co. will have gone from 4-2 to 4-6, but the good news is that the schedule lightens up down the stretch. In fact, that schedule is light enough where I could see the best version of this Bucs team going on a 6-1 run and still finishing 10-7.

But the problem is, the best version of this Bucs team has Chris Godwin, as well as a functioning defense.

I like Tampa Bay to win coming out of the bye to get to 5-6 and avoid the 4-7 start it had in 2023. But I also think there is a loss or two in that stretch that will happen, even if it shouldn’t. A win over the Giants, a sweep of the Panthers and a completed sweep of the Saints feels realistic. And while there’s plenty of reason to believe they could beat the Raiders, Chargers and Cowboys, I don’t trust this team like I did a few weeks ago. I think they lose two games somewhere in there, which leaves me at the same 9-8 record from a year ago. This time around, that may not be enough.

Josh Queipo: 10-7 Remains A Likely Outcome For Tampa Bay

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

It is understandable after two losses to the Falcons and a drubbing at the hands of the Ravens in the last four weeks for many to adjust their preseason predictions downward. I get it. The defense has been a disaster. But the offense has been better than expected. Even after the loss of Mike Evans for an extended period of time and Chris Godwin for the season the Bucs can still score points.

And for that reason, a good offense in an offense-centric league, combined with a less daunting schedule down the stretch that I still believe the Bucs will end the season 10-7. I had the team at 4-4 at this juncture. They are 4-4. Was it exactly as I had planned? No. Things rarely are. But the aggregate result is still the same.

Week 9 will mark the first time since Week 1 that the Bucs will have all four of their top safeties available, including Tykee Smith, who is a quasi-safety/nickelback. And I hope and expect Todd Bowles will find ways to get all four on the field together. For all of the faults of Bowles and his defense this year, and there are many, I don’t think it will continue to be this bad for the rest of the season.

The teams the Bucs have faced to this point have a combined winning percentage of .629 and an average EPA/play of +0.04. That composite would be tied for the eighth-best offense in the NFL. After the Bucs’ bye week, the combined winning percentage of their opponents will be .277 with an average EPA/play of -0.17. That composite would be the seventh-worst offense in the NFL right between the Cleveland Browns and the New York Giants. Better days are ahead for the Bucs. The defense will shift towards the mean while the offense will continue to be good, if not great. And the Bucs will be 10-7.

Playoffs, though? In a tough NFC I’m not so sure 10-7 does the trick.

Adam Slivon: I Cannot See The Bucs Winning 10 Games Anymore

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and OC Liam Coen – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

I picked the Bucs to win 10 games this season back in early September. After going 8-9 in 2022 and 9-8 in 2023, a continued improvement in getting double-digit wins and winning the NFC South for a fourth straight year seemed realistic. Well, I do not see that being the case any longer. Although Liam Coen has come in and directed an elite offense with Baker Mayfield under center, Todd Bowles’ defense has been an absolute letdown.

That means that although offensively there has been a drastic improvement averaging 29.4 points a game, allowing 26.6 points per game will not cut it. That latter number gets even worse looking at the four games the team played in October (32.3 points per game).

So, where does that leave my rest-of-season prediction? I do not foresee Tampa Bay winning either of the next two games against the Chiefs and 49ers, dropping them to 4-6. Fortunately, the group has an easier schedule after the bye week. The Bucs should be able to defeat the Giants and Panthers on the road, getting them back to .500 at 6-6. With the Raiders also underwhelming this year, I predict they will get back over .500 and back in the playoff hunt.

Games against the Chargers and Cowboys will be a big test to see what the team is made of. They are winnable games, but it’s hard to see them coming out with wins based on what we have seen as of late. 

I now have them losing both and falling to 7-8 before finishing season sweeps of the Panthers and Saints at home to match last year’s 9-8 record. Although that was enough to win the division in 2023, it does not look like it will cut it in 2024. Despite its track record and star power, the defense has no answers for opposing offenses. One would have thought that an offense averaging nearly 30 points a game would have a revised prediction more along the lines of 12-5 or 11-6, but that is just how much the defense has under-performed and will likely continue to hold the team back.