Last week I outlined the Bucs’ cap situation for 2025. With a talented roster with a couple of specific holes it makes sense that the team might be in the market for some external help next year. And while Tampa Bay is not out of the playoff race this year, far from it in fact, I thought coming out of the bye week it would be a fun exercise to look at some potential free agent targets the team might pursue at cornerback next year.

The cost projections on potential contracts are derived from current projections that myself and Kyle DeDiminicantanio have for these players through Week 10 of this season.

Bucs’ Cornerback Options In 2025

Bucs CB Jamel Dean – Photo by: Cliff Welch P/R

Similar to edge rusher, the Bucs are not devoid of talent at cornerback. Zyon McCollum has come into his own as a starter in 2024 after netting the most snaps of any outside corner as a fill-in last year. Per Next Gen Stats, McCollum has given up -6.0 expected points added when targeted this year and 0.82 yards per coverage rep. Both are very good numbers and there have been flashes of dominance in several games this year.

Across from McCollum, Jamel Dean has become somewhat of a pariah among Bucs fans due to inconsistent play and a history of missing time due to injury. Since the beginning of 2023 he has missed 30% of the team’s regular season games. There is no guaranteed money left on his contract past this season and the Bucs could let him go next year and save $8,432,000 of salary cap space. It is perfectly reasonable to speculate that the team may move on from him.

Cornerback Bryce Hall was signed to a one-year deal in the offseason, but broke his leg in Week 1 and missed the entire season. It’s doubtful that he returns to Tampa Bay. If the Bucs choose to retool the cornerback position after a potential Dean release, as well as watching Josh Hayes and Tyrek Funderburk struggle mightily in Dean’s absence, here are a few potential free agents they could target.

Top Of The Market

49ers CB Charvarius Ward – Photo by: USA Today

There are four cornerbacks that we project to net free agent deals with an APY of $15 million or more next year. For the purposes of this article I am going to assume a reunion with former Bucs cornerback Carlton Davis III is unlikely. That leaves three players who would represent a larger investment at corner: Paulson Adebo, Charvarius Ward and D.J. Reed.

Adebo should lead the market of true free agents due to his age and this being his second contract as opposed to both Ward and Reed entering their third deals, respectively. Coming off of a very strong 2023 season, Adebo is having a more demure campaign this year.

In a man-heavy system is more susceptible to carrying higher yards/route run numbers. On the other hand he carries a -25.6 coverage epa (negative is better for defenders) and is holding opposing quarterbacks to a 66.8 quarterback rating when he is targeted. Add in seven interceptions since the start of 2023 and you have the makings for a big deal.

The cornerback market is due for a seismic adjustment after the market has experienced relative stagnation since Jaire Alexander’s deal in 2022. We have already seen that adjustment starting with extensions for Jalen Ramsey and Pat Surtain II this year pushing the top of the market to $24 million APY. Adebo has a good case to slot in behind those two deals, but just ahead of Alexander at $21.5 million per year over four years for a total value of $86 million.

A cap hit on this type of deal would cost the Bucs somewhere around $10 million in 2025 salary cap charges.

Reed and Ward have both been highly productive players operating in Robert Saleh-style systems. At 6-foot-1, Ward has the length that the Bucs have coveted since 2019 while Reed has been successful despite a smaller stature at 5-foot-9. Both were free agents in 2022. While Reed had the better statistical case, Ward out-earned him that year with a $2.5 million higher APY.

Fast forward to this year and I expect their contracts to reverse with Ward netting $16 million APY over three years and Reed coming in around $17 million. Ward has the better ball production with six interceptions and 28 pass breakups over the past three seasons to Reed’s two and 22, respectively. If Tampa Bay were to commit to either of them for those types of deals the 2025 cap hit would likely be between $9.5-10.5 million.

Middle of The Market

Vikings CB Byron Murphy – Photo by: USA Today

Three corners comprise the middle of the market at this point in time. Rasul Douglas, Byron Murphy and Asante Samuel Jr.

Douglas experienced a bit of a career resurgence after Green Bay traded him to Buffalo at the trade deadline last year. He’s a smart and heady corner who has traditionally graded out well in zone and not well in man coverage. Douglas will be 30 next year so this is likely his last major bite at the apple and he could fetch $13.5 million per year on a shorter deal with a 2025 cap hit of around $8 million.

Samuel had a promising rookie season, but injuries and inconsistency have plagued him since. If teams look past this year, one where he hasn’t played since Week 4, he could see a payday somewhere in the neighborhood of $13.5 million per year over three years. His play last year was solid per Pro Football Focus’ grading system and he had 14 forced incompletions while only being targeted on 15% of his coverage snaps. If he were to get the deal proposed above his 2025 cap hit would be around $9 million.

Murphy is a very interesting case. Playing behind a front that sends the house 55% of the time, it isn’t easy to properly value Murphy. He is targeted over 20% of the time but has a -4.1 coverage EPA and four interceptions this year. That should net him a two-year deal for around $20 million and a $5 million cap hit in 2025.

I don’t think the Bucs will be in the market for Paulson Adebo, but I could see the team target one of the other top-of-the market corners with a proven track record of success in Reed or Ward. In the middle of the market area I wouldn’t call any of the options a highly likely play for Tampa Bay.