While all eyes are set on the 2023 season, Pewter Report is taking a look at the Bucs in 2023 and into the future. Going position by position, we’ll provide a three-year outlook to get an idea of what the 2024 and 2025 Bucs might look like — and how 2023 may impact those future teams.

Today, we begin with the quarterback room.

Bucs Quarterback Contracts

Bucs QBs Kyle Trask, Baker Mayfield and John Wolford – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs aren’t tied to a quarterback in the long term whatsoever. Baker Mayfield signed a one-year deal with the team this offseason and is looking to revive his career after landing on his fourth team in just over a year. He’ll have to start by winning the starting job out of camp. There’s no doubt that he’s looking to have a Geno Smith-type comeback season at age 28, but he could just as easily be a one-and-done in red and pewter if he falters.

Kyle Trask is the other quarterback in contention to start for Tampa Bay this year, and the team isn’t tied to him for much longer either. Drafted in the second round in 2021, Trask has two years left on his contract — 2023 and 2024. After sitting behind Tom Brady and Blaine Gabbert for two years, this is the former Florida Gator’s first chance to take over the team.

John Wolford rounds out the quarterback room and while he may be one of the more capable No. 3 quarterbacks in the NFL, he’s not someone the Bucs are committed to beyond this year. He signed a one-year deal with the team this offseason, and if he has to see the field in 2023, it’ll mean bad things for Tampa Bay’s season.

How This Year Impacts 2024 & 2025

Bucs QBs Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Perhaps more than any other position, what happens this season will determine the future of the quarterback position in Tampa Bay. There are a variety of outcomes, each of which will tell the Bucs how to approach the position in 2024.

There are plenty of ways it could go with either potential starting quarterback. If Mayfield wins the job and plays well enough to guide the team to the playoffs in 2023, he will have a strong case to be re-signed by the team in 2024 — likely on a multi-year deal. Another possibility is parlaying a successful comeback season into a multi-year deal elsewhere, but if he’s had a successful season in this offensive system with these players, sticking around in Tampa might be the first choice for him.

Now, if Mayfield wins the job and winds up being replaced during the season due to poor play, that’s sure to rule him out of the Bucs’ future plans. At the same time, even if he plays all year but plays mediocre ball, he may not have much of a future with the Bucs in that case either.

As for Trask, there are a range of outcomes to consider for him as well. If he wins the job and plays lights-out football while leading Tampa Bay to the playoffs, the team will likely head into 2024 with him as the starter. And if he really emerges as some kind of star, maybe the Bucs even consider working on a contract extension with him next offseason so that he’s 2024 isn’t a contract year for him.

On the flip side, Trask losing out on the job to Mayfield or seeing the field and struggling will damage — and possibly end — any hopes that general manager Jason Licht has in him panning out as a draft pick. He could still stick around and be a backup or bridge starter for part of the final year on his contract in 2024, but he’d likely be on his way out after that.

Three-Year Outlook: Bucs Quarterbacks

Bucs QB Kyle Trask – Photo by: USA Today

Put simply, either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask will have to do a lot to cement a place in the Bucs’ future. What “a lot” entails is up to the Bucs Brass, but mediocre play won’t cut it. If neither really emerges as a viable long-term (think 3-4 years) starter in Tampa Bay, the team will be heavily in the market for a quarterback next offseason.

That could mean pursuing a quarterback of the future in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. If neither Bucs quarterback can get the job done in 2023 and the season turns into a nightmare because of it, that could mean a Top 10 or Top 15 pick (the defense may be too good to have Tampa Bay wind up in be Top 5, but I digress).

The good news is, the quarterback class should be strong next year. USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., Texas’ Quinn Ewers, LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Florida State’s Jordan Travis, Tennessee’s Joe Milton III and Tulane’s Michael Pratt are all names to know heading into the 2023 college football season.

Tampa Bay could also go the free agency route next year, the way it did when it landed Tom Brady in 2020. The 2024 free agency class is less than impressive, though, with many of the same names from the 2023 class bound to be available again. Kirk Cousins and Ryan Tannehill are new names on the free agency list, but neither are worth pursuing in place of drafting a potential quarterback of the future.

Three-Year Outlook Summary

Whatever happens, the Bucs have to hope 2023 provides them with a clear path forward at the quarterback position. They won’t want to open 2024 with some of the same questions — the hope will either be that the 2023 starter did enough to take the reins for the foreseeable future or the team has landed a shiny new prospect who will be the franchise’s new hope in 2024 and into the following few years.