This feels familiar, doesn’t it? After starting the season 3-1, the Bucs have hit a midseason slide and now find themselves at 4-5 after a three-game losing streak. Before they hit the bye in Week 11, they’ll be looking to avoid a fourth straight loss and a 4-6 record when they host the 4-4 49ers at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

Last year, Bowles led Tampa Bay to a turnaround in December, taking the team from 4-7 to a 9-8 finish. It sure would be nice if this time around, the Bucs don’t wait so long and get something of a turnaround started on Sunday. Entering the bye at 5-5 instead of 4-6 would feel massively different, especially considering the lighter schedule down the stretch and the impending returns of wide receiver Mike Evans and cornerback Jamel Dean.

At 4-5, Tampa Bay is two games behind Atlanta for first place in the NFC South and is on the outside looking in as far as the crowded NFC Wild Card picture goes. The team’s four-year playoff streak and three-year streak as division champions are in serious jeopardy, and Todd Bowles’ future as the Bucs’ head coach could be in jeopardy as a result.

Here’s a comprehensive preview of this big Week 10 matchup between the Bucs and 49ers at Ray Jay.

The Last Time…

Bucs ILB Devin White and 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs’ recent history against the 49ers hasn’t been a whole lot of fun. In the most recent meeting last November, San Francisco took down Tampa Bay by a score of 27-14. It was just a 13-7 advantage for Kyle Shanahan’s team at halftime, but a 76-yard touchdown pass from Brock Purdy to Brandon Aiyuk and a 3-yard scoring pass from Purdy to George Kittle in the third quarter created enough separation to make Rachaad White’s fourth-quarter touchdown run nothing more than a consolation score.

Purdy threw for 333 yards and three touchdowns on 21-of-25 passing in that game, finishing the game with a perfect 158.3 passer rating. Safe to say he shredded through Todd Bowles’ defense, doing so for a second straight year.

Christian McCaffrey ran for 78 yards on 21 carries as well, plus he caught five passes for 25 yards and a touchdown. The 76-yard touchdown catch was Aiyuk’s big highlight, but he went for 156 yards and the score on five catches.

The 49ers lead the all-time series over the Bucs 20-6, though the Bucs did win the lone playoff meeting between the two teams on their way to their first-ever Super Bowl back in January 2003.

How The Bucs And 49ers Are Trending

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

These are two teams seemingly trending in opposite directions. For the Bucs, a 3-1 start has become a 4-5 record with one game to play before their bye week. It’s been a season full of injuries for Tampa Bay, which at different points has played games without Luke Goedeke, Graham Barton, Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey, Jamel Dean, Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tykee Smith.

The team will remain without Evans and Dean on Sunday, and Godwin is of course out for the remainder of the season.

Even without Evans and Godwin these last two weeks, the Bucs offense hasn’t been the problem. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen has done a pretty masterful job of getting his group prepared and keeping things efficient, as Tampa Bay has scored 24 points on offense in each of its last two games. Cade Otton has emerged as Baker Mayfield’s top target, and both Rachaad White and Bucky Irving have stepped up in the backfield. The likes of Sterling Shepard and Trey Palmer have contributed at points as well.

The problem for the Bucs has been on defense. They’ve allowed 30+ points in four of their last five games. Unsurprisingly, all four of those games were losses. The pass rush from the outside linebackers hasn’t been enough, the inside linebackers have been a liability in coverage and the secondary really misses Dean, as neither Tyrek Funderburk nor Josh Hayes appears ready to fill in. It doesn’t help that safety Jordan Whitehead is having a bad season and 2023 All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. hasn’t replicated the success he had a year ago either.

The 49ers, participants in four of the last five NFC Championship Games and two of the last five Super Bowls, aren’t off to the same kind of start they’re used to having. They beat the Jets 32-19 in Week 1 but then took back-to-back losses to the Vikings and Rams on the road.

49ers TE George Kittle and Bucs ILB Lavonte David and DB Dee Delaney – Photo by: USA Today

After beating the Patriots, they lost another NFC West game to the Cardinals, but they’ve since won two of their last three games (wins over the Seahawks and Cowboys with a loss to the Chiefs mixed in). San Francisco is fresh off its bye week and headed to Tampa to start its final stretch of the season.

The 49ers have had their share of injury issues as well, which has contributed to their 4-4 start. Star running back Christian McCaffrey has yet to play this year, while George Kittle and Deebo Samuel have missed a game each and Brandon Aiyuk is out for the season with a torn ACL and MCL. On defense, safety Talanoa Hufanga tore several ligaments in his wrist and is currently on injured reserve. Defensive tackle Javon Hargrave and defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos are among others on injured reserve.

What helps San Francisco is that it’s still a team littered with stars. Playing with a banged-up offense, Brock Purdy has thrown seven interceptions this year, but he’s still thrown for 2,101 yards and 10 touchdowns while adding 210 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Kittle has 503 yards and six touchdowns to lead the team, while Jordan Mason has stepped up in McCaffrey’s absence to post 685 yards and average 5.1 yards per carry. Of course, the defense still has Fred Warner, Nick Bosa and Charvarius Ward to lead the way, too.

Here’s how the Bucs and 49ers stack up heading into Week 10:

Bucs Offense: 5th in scoring offense (28.8 PPG), 5th in total offense (377.8 yards per game), 5th in passing offense (250.8 yards per game), 10th in rushing offense (127.0 yards per game)

49ers Offense: 6th in scoring offense (26.3 PPG), 2nd in total offense (412.4 yards per game), 4th in passing offense (253.4 yards per game), 4th in rushing offense (159.0 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: 28th in scoring defense (27.0 points allowed per game), 30th in total defense (386.7 yards allowed per game), 30th in passing defense (255.9 yards allowed per game), 19th in rushing defense (130.8 yards allowed per game)

49ers Defense: 16th in scoring defense (22.8 points allowed per game), 10th in total defense (314.8 yards allowed per game), 14th in passing defense (209.0 yards allowed per game), 6th in rushing defense (105.8 yards allowed per game)

As of Wednesday night, the 49ers were 6-point favorites, with the Over/Under set at 51 points (per BetUS).

What Might Decide This Bucs-49ers Matchup?

Bucs TE Cade Otton – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs offense has stayed above water in its first two games without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Evans is expected back after the bye week, so Sunday’s game against the 49ers could be the last time offensive coordinator Liam Coen has to make do without one of his top weapons.

Saying that, though, Cade Otton has stepped up big time for Coen, Baker Mayfield and this offense in the last few weeks. After posting his first career 100-yard game in Week 7, he went for 81 yards and two touchdowns on nine catches in Week 8 and 77 yards and another score on eight catches in Week 9. If Tampa Bay is going to stay in this game, Otton will likely have to continue driving the passing game like he has in the last couple of weeks.

Guys like Sterling Shepard and Trey Palmer were largely invisible throughout Monday night’s loss to the Chiefs until stepping up on the game-tying drive late. Ryan Miller came through too, scoring his first career touchdown to tie the game with under 30 seconds to go. Any combination of those guys emerging as a viable No. 2 option behind Otton would be a boost, especially considering Jalen McMillan‘s own injury and inconsistency issues. And a better performance out of the backfield trio of Rachaad White, Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker would go a long way.

As much as the offense has to continue running efficiently in this one, the biggest factor in Sunday’s game will be Todd Bowles and his defense. This group has been holding the Bucs back throughout much of the season, but especially in recent weeks. Losing SirVocea Dennis has created a major issue in the middle of the defense, as K.J. Britt and even Lavonte David are struggling to defend the middle of the field. With the combination of how poorly this defense is playing and the way Kyle Shanahan has essentially stuffed Bowles in a locker in recent years, the Tampa Bay defense will be up against it as it tries to keep the team competitive in this game.

49ers RB Christian McCaffrey and S Logan Ryan – Photo by: USA Today

For the 49ers, the potential return of Christian McCaffrey is a significant storyline heading into the weekend. McCaffrey has missed the first eight games of the season with an Achilles injury, but he could be back in action against the Bucs. That’s huge news for the San Francisco offense, as the three-time Pro Bowler and two-time All-Pro is a do-it-all type. He ran for 1,459 yards and 14 touchdowns last year, plus he caught 67 passes for 564 yards and seven touchdowns. He makes this offense go, and having him back in any capacity could make a big difference.

As much as the offense has missed McCaffrey and some of its receivers from time to time, the 49ers still rank sixth in scoring offense and are top five across the board in total offense, passing offense and rushing offense. Brock Purdy, Jordan Mason and George Kittle have managed to keep things afloat, and having Shanahan at the helm will always be a plus for San Francisco.

More pressing is the San Francisco defense, which has been good but not great through the first half of the season. The unit ranks 16th in scoring defense and while it’s strong against the run, it’s been a middle-of-the-road team against the pass. Mayfield will look to keep things rolling after a turnover-free performance in Kansas City on Monday night. If he can stay efficient and create enough within Coen’s scheme, the 49er defense could be back on its heels a bit.

Key Players To Watch

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Is it time for a Bucky Irving breakout game? It’ll be tough against the 49ers’ 6th-ranked run defense, but if the rookie can break through and put up his biggest game to date, it could be a difference-maker for the Bucs in this matchup. Irving has played well thus far, averaging 5.0 yards per carry while leading the team with 419 rushing yards. But his usage has largely been complementary to Rachaad White, as his career high in carries is 14 (at New Orleans when White was out) and he only broke double-digit carries one other time. A bit more out of the 2024 fourth-round pick would be a welcome sight on Sunday.

Vita Vea had a sack and three total pressures when the Bucs played the 49ers last year, and he’s coming off a two-sack game in Kansas City on Monday night. Considering the lack of consistent pressure from the outside, it’ll largely be up to Vea and Calijah Kancey to make life difficult for Brock Purdy and the 49ers passing game. Vea is Tampa Bay’s leading sacker this year with five, which is two more than the next-closest defender.

Speaking of Purdy, he’s been a guy who has feasted on the Bucs’ defense in his first two starts against them. After shining in his NFL starting debut against Tampa Bay in 2022, he dominated Todd Bowles‘ defense again in 2023. Between his two starts against the Bucs, he has completed 80.4% of his passes for 518 yards and six total touchdowns. His interceptions are up this year, as he has seven in eight games after throwing 11 in 16 games last year. If he plays a clean game on Sunday, it’ll bode well for San Francisco.

49ers LB Fred Warner – Photo by: USA Today

There isn’t a better linebacker in the NFL than Fred Warner. He is currently Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded linebacker at 91.6 overall, and he’s the 49ers’ leading tackler with 66 (40 solo). He also has a sack, three tackles for loss, six passes defensed, two interceptions, four forced fumbles and a defensive touchdown this season. There truly is no one better at the position right now, and he may be good for a game-changing play or two on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium.

Bucs vs. 49ers Game Information

When: Sunday, November 10
Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX – Kevin Burkhardt (Play by Play), Tom Brady (Analyst), Erin Andrews & Tom Rinaldi (Reporters)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martín Gramática (Analyst), Santiago Gramática (Reporter)