Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The 4-5 Bucs snapped a four-game losing streak with a much-needed, 20-6 win over the Titans in Week 10. The 6-3 49ers look dominant once again, snapping a three-game losing streak with a 34-3 dismantling of the Jaguars.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay snapped its four-game losing skid just in time, as Atlanta and New Orleans also lost on Sunday. The Falcons have lost three straight since beating the Bucs at Raymond James Stadium, 16-13, and are now in third place in the division after gaining the lead in the NFC South with the victory over Tampa Bay. Now, the Saints lead the division at 5-5 and the 4-5 Bucs are just a half-game back.

The Bucs aren’t expected to win in San Francisco, and probably won’t. But with four division games coming up over the final six games of the season, Tampa Bay would still be in decent shape even at 4-6 with a loss to the 49ers. A loss would mean that the Bucs would likely have to go no worse than 5-3 down the stretch to either be in contention for the last Wild Card playoff spot at 9-8 or the division title. A 6-2 record would put Tampa Bay in better position at 10-7, but the Bucs haven’t shown the ability to win with that much consistency yet this season.

What’s At Stake For The 49ers

49ers QB Brock Purdy – Photo by: USA Today

The 49ers ended their three-game losing streak after the bye week, crushing the Jaguars in Jacksonville, 34-3. That win got San Francisco to 6-3 and in a tie with 6-3 Seattle for the NFC West lead. The 49ers have the third-best record in the NFC after the 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles and the 7-2 Detroit Lions, and are tied with the 6-3 Cowboys, but own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Dallas due to a 42-10 win back in Week 5.

San Francisco is heavily favored over Tampa Bay by double digits and should be able to stack up another needed conference win over an NFC team. The 49ers beat the Bucs, 35-7, last year and it could be another blowout against a less-talented Bucs team this year. San Francisco needs to go another winning streak like the five-game streak it started the 2023 season with, especially with two games against the division rival Seahawks looming within the next four weeks.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

It will take a Herculean feat for the Bucs to beat the heavily-favored 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. San Francisco has a more talented roster and a better coaching staff, to be honest. For the Bucs to win, they would have to play mistake-free football and bring their “A” game to the West Coast and hope that the 49ers take them too lightly and play at a “C” level.

Baker Mayfield would have to rise to the occasion with multiple touchdowns and no turnovers, and the Bucs defense would have to force Brock Purdy into several interceptions. The Bucs dropped at least three pick opportunities last week against Will Levis and only managed to pick him off once as a result. It feels like Tampa Bay needs to hold San Francisco to 23 points or less to have a chance to win. That’s easier said than done, and winning the turnover margin – and by a lot – seems mandatory for a chance to win.

The 49ers’ three losses have actually come against some pretty good teams in hindsight. Minnesota, Cleveland and Cincinnati all have winning records. San Francisco is a veteran-laden, battle-tested team. The Bucs will have to pull out all the stops and find some unconventional scores – on trick plays, on defense or special teams – to have a chance in scoring what would be one of the biggest upsets of the year in the NFL.

The 49ers Win If…

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

The magic number for the 49ers is 30 points. San Francisco is 5-0 when scoring 30 points or more this season. In the 49ers’ three losses, the team hasn’t even made it past 17 points. San Francisco’s three-game losing streak prior to the bye week was proof that the 49ers can’t just show up and win. It looks like that message finally got through in last week’s 34-3 destruction of the Jaguars in Jacksonville.

San Francisco’s defensive line got bolstered with the addition of Chase Young via a trade. The 49ers have the ability to simply rush four defenders without blitzing and apply pressure. That means they can drop seven in coverage and try to make life difficult for Baker Mayfield and force him to throw a pick or two. Expect the 49ers to double cover Mike Evans all day and force Mayfield to look to Chris Godwin, Trey Palmer and Cade Otton instead.

The 49ers offense has tremendous balance thanks to running back Christian McCaffrey, who had over 100 yards rushing against Tampa Bay in last year’s 35-7 win. McCaffrey killed the Bucs as a runner with 119 yards and a touchdown, as well as a receiver with two catches for 34 yards and another score. Whether it’s running routes out of the backfield or in the screen game, McCaffrey is either a first down or a touchdown waiting to happen. With tight end George Kittle and receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, Brock Purdy has so many weapons to choose from on a down-in, down-out basis.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs Offensive Line vs. 49ers Defensive Line

Bucs RB Rachaad White and 49ers DE Nick Bosa – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay has a really good pair at offensive tackle with Pro Bowler Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke, the team’s most improved player from a year ago. Wirfs has dealt with a thigh injury and has struggled a bit over the last few games. In other words, he’s just been very good instead of dominant. Goedeke has actually outplayed him over the last few weeks.

Wifs and Goedeke will have to play their best games of the year against the 49ers new bookend pass rushers in defensive ends Nick Bosa and Chase Young, who just arrived a few weeks ago in a trade with Washington. The 49ers have an embarrassment of riches along the defensive line with three former first-round picks in Bosa, Young and defensive tackle Arik Armstead, plus big-time free agent addition Javon Hargrave. Bosa and Hargrave are tied for the team lead in sacks with 4.5 apiece, while Armstead has three.

But it’s the interior offensive line that has been getting consistently outmatched in Tampa Bay. The guard duo of Aaron Stinnie and Cody Mauch struggled last week against a formidable Tennessee defensive line, as did center Robert Hainsey. This trio struggles to open holes in the run game and is mediocre at best in pass protection, although Stinnie has been a slight upgrade over Matt Feiler at left guard. Look for San Francisco’s defensive line to assert itself right off the bat and stuff the run and consistently apply pressure on Baker Mayfield.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs LBs Lavonte David and Devin White vs. TE George Kittle and RB Christian McCaffrey

Bucs ILBs Lavonte David and Devin White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Todd Bowles decided to play to Devin White’s strengths against the Titans and blitzed him more often. The result was another sack for White and a better day at the office, as he’s better moving forward than going in reverse – i.e. dropping in coverage.

But with the 49ers having two legit Pro Bowl weapons in tight end George Kittle and running back Christian McCaffrey, Bowles is going to have to probably drop White and Lavonte David even more than he wants to, as nickel cornerback Christian Izien and strong safety Ryan Neal are unreliable in coverage.

Kittle and McCaffrey have big-time speed, evidenced by a 66-yard touchdown from the play-making tight end last week at Jacksonville, and the fact that McCaffrey has a 35-yard touchdown catch on the year, along with runs of 65 and 51 yards earlier in the season. David and White need to be better in coverage than they have been, especially when it comes to picking off passes. David hasn’t had an interception in three years and both he and White dropped interceptions in last week’s win versus the Titans.