The Bucs scored 37 points in their 2024 NFL debut.

Yes, they were playing a team that is likely to be a cellar-dweller, but that score is still not a mirage. It wasn’t the function of turnovers going for scores or setting up short field position.

The Bucs average starting field position was their own 32-yard line.

No, the offense converted seven of their eight drives into points because they were just plain good.

Let’s break down some of the reasons Tampa Bay was so successful on Sunday.

Early Down Run vs. Pass And Adaptability

If you have read my work in the past, you know I am a proponent of passing more often on than running on first down. The best offenses in the NFL year-in and year-out understand and implement this concept.

That’s not to say those teams don’t want to run the ball. They just choose more advantageous times to do so.

When the average run gains four yards it makes more sense to do so on second-and-3 than first-and-10. And the average pass play gains seven yards so you are more likely to be in second-and-3 when you pass on first down.

Bucs OC Liam Coen – Photo by: USA Today

For the game in neutral situations the Bucs ran the ball 50% of the time on first down, which isn’t ideal, but was a Top 10 rate in the NFL headed into tonight’s Monday Night Football action.

1st down run rate in neutral situations outside of 2-minute warning headed into MNF pic.twitter.com/4p4ndc9TKF

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) September 9, 2024

But here is the kicker for the Bucs.

That first down pass rate was 31% in the first half!

In the first two quarters of the game, outside of the two-minute warning, the Bucs ran the ball on first down nine times to just four passes. Quarterback Baker Mayfield went 4-of-4 for 47 yards and a touchdown while averaging 11.75 yards per play and Tampa Bay had a 100% success rate on those plays.

When running the ball in those situations the Bucs accumulated 13 total yards on nine carries for 1.4 yards per play. And 44% of those runs went for negative yards and only 22% were considered “successful.”

But here is the best part. Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen showed he is adaptable. Coming out of halftime Coen called a pass on 100% of the time on the team’s six first downs in the third quarter. Those plays had a lower success rate than the first half, Mayfield was 3-of-6 for 18 yards and a touchdown, but the yards per play and success rate were still greater than the team’s first half rushing success on first down.

Having Answers To The Test

Liam Coen often talks about having answers to both zone and man coverages. There is no easier way to exploit this than with the choice route – also called an option route. Based on how the defense defends a look a receiver has the choice to run one of several variations of a route.

#Bucs OC Liam Coen talks a lot about having “answers” no matter what the DEF throws out there. Perfect ex. is the choice route run by Godwin. U can see he delays his release to read the cov. Reads C3 and knows the out will be open so he chooses it. If C1, would have been a slant. pic.twitter.com/oG7TgSFPsO

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) September 9, 2024

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: Cliff Welch P/R

Here Bucs receiver Chris Godwin has two options for how he can run his route based on how the defense reacts to Mike Evans’ vertical route. With Evans being the inside receiver it is easy to decipher if the coverage is man by reading who follows Evans.

Since it was the outside corner Godwin can quickly read that the coverage is a cover-3 variant and that he will have to contend with the safety coming down. Godwin’s choice route comprises of either an out or a slant at five yards.

He opts for the out as it gives him a free release running away from the defender for a safe throw and a high percentage chance for success. Had this been a Cover 1 look Godwin would have likely been able to use inside leverage on the outside corner to run away from him on the slant. No matter what the defense throws he has the “answer” in what choice he makes.

The key for all of this is for him and quarterback Baker Mayfield to be on the same page in how they read the defense and what route Godwin should run. And on Sunday they were.

Mayfield had the highest EPA/dropback of any quarterback in the NFL through Sunday (0.64) and he was most successful when targeting Godwin.

epa/pass when targeting each #Bucs receiver:

Godwin 1.20 (8 targets)
Evans 1.08 (6 targets)
White 0.453 (6 targets)
Palmer 0.439 (2 targets)
Irving -0.167 (3 targets)
Otton -0.200 (2 targets)
McMillan -0.561 (3 targets)

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) September 9, 2024

Improved Bucs Offensive Line Play

It wasn’t perfect for the Bucs re-vamped interior offensive line. Washington Defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne combined for nine of their team’s 13 quarterback pressures per Next Gen Stats. But the whole of it was that Baker Mayfield was pressured on just 29.4% of his drop backs on Sunday vs. a season-long average of 37.4% in 2023. That’s progress.

Counts as a pressure, but it was

a) late
b) a heads up play by Luvu to loop after Bucky gets knocked to the ground with Mauch/Goedeke driving Payne through
c) still a great recovery by Goedeke to help buy Baker the extra time to find Godwin pic.twitter.com/hTelPu5M45

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) September 9, 2024

There was more to the Bucs’ success on Sunday than just this, but these three things stood out to me. Now the tests will get tougher starting in week two with Detroit. But Liam Coen and company have already shown some encouraging signs of building off of an offense that already showed they could exploit Detroit last year.