SR’s Fab 5 is a collection of reporting and analysis on the Bucs from yours truly, Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds. Here are four things that caught my attention this week, plus some random tidbits in my Buc Shots section at the end. Enjoy!

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FAB 1. Bucs Have Squandered Brady’s Final Season

This was supposed to happen next year. You know, the Bucs becoming irrelevant again.

The 2023 Bucs were supposed to be struggling, possibly with a 5-6 record yet still in the hunt for the division title in a very weak NFC South.

This wasn’t supposed to happen with Tom Brady still at quarterback. Not a losing record heading into December.

Not this year.

The Bucs were supposed to cruise to a second straight NFC South title, perhaps even pick up where they left off from last year’s 13-4 season. Tampa Bay was still supposed to be a Super Bowl contender – perhaps even the favorite in a suddenly weakened NFC.

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

But here we are. And there Brady goes.

The Bucs have six, maybe seven more games with the greatest quarterback to have ever played – still in red and pewter.

And it feels like it’s going to be squandered.

Why?

Because at 5-6 this season has been a mess since Week 3 when the Bucs lost 14-12 to an average Packers team. Tampa Bay’s offense has been pathetic all season and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich has been exposed as someone who could direct a 30-point per game offense – but only when it featured three Pro Bowl linemen, a future Hall of Fame QB, a future Hall of Fame tight end, a future Hall of Fame receiver, a $20 million receiver and a receiver that has Hall of Fame credentials, but is a villainous jackass.

Without Ryan Jensen, Ali Marpet, Rob Gronkowski and even Antonio Brown it turns out Leftwich lacks creativity, imagination and even competence. Not exactly what Brady had in mind when he decided to put his struggling marriage on the line and unretire to play one more season with the Bucs.

This will surely be Brady’s last season in Tampa Bay. Why would he want to come back for a final year with the Bucs in 2023?

Remember, he was either exploring leaving or plotting to leave this past offseason and possibly unite with Sean Payton in Miami for the 2022 campaign before the Brian Flores lawsuit and investigation stymied that idea. Instead, he returns to Tampa Bay and saw his starting center go down for the year on the second day of training camp.

Jensen’s injury and Marpet’s retirement have forced Brady to become gun-shy in the pocket. Fearful of taking hits and sacks at age 45 (it’s hard to blame him), Brady is getting rid of the ball faster than ever at just a tick over two seconds. Sometimes that does not allow enough time for the deeper, more vertical routes in the Bucs offense to develop downfield. As a result, the offense is lacking a big-play element that was prominent over the last two seasons.

Brady liked the idea of Todd Bowles taking over as head coach in the offseason because Bowles wanted to run the ball more in 2022. At age 45 Brady had no interest in leading the league in pass attempts again and subjecting himself to more hits and sacks. Yet here we are with Brady’s 470 pass attempts this season leading the NFL, and the Bucs struggling to run the ball – again.

If the Bucs don’t win the NFC South and claim the automatic playoff berth that comes with it there could be hell to pay at the AdventHealth Training Center. While not at the caliber of last year’s 13-4 team, this year’s Bucs roster is better than its current 5-6 record. Poor play-calling by Leftwich and poor roster management (playing struggling rookie Luke Goedeke over Nick Leverett at left guard for the first seven games) and clock management by Bowles has led to some awful losses this season.

Pittsburgh, Carolina, Cleveland, etc.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Glazers have given every coach they’ve hired at least two years, but that could change with Bowles if the Bucs somehow miss the playoffs in Brady’s final season. Because if Bowles can’t get the Bucs to the playoffs with Brady under center, do you think he could do it without him?

By being the most progressive ownership group in the NFL by hiring the most minority coaches (four when some teams have yet to hire any) of any franchise, the Glazers could avoid any racially-charged backlash from foolish would-be critics if Bowles were to be fired after just one season. Those charges just won’t stick and offer the Glazers some protection due to their track record of equality opportunity hiring practices.

And if Bowles is gone, then all of Bruce Arians’ assistants are gone and the Bucs would be starting over with the Arians’ era officially over. In one 2022 season the careers of both Brady and Arians would end with a painful thud in Tampa Bay just a few years removed from a Super Bowl championship.

But that’s where this franchise sits heading into the most important game of the season against a team in New Orleans that has had Tampa Bay’s number for the better part of a decade. The Bucs have to split their next six games – just to get to 8-9, which may not be good enough to win the division if the Falcons or Saints go on a season-ending run.

A loss to the Saints on Monday Night Football could begin to sink the Bucs’ ship, especially with San Francisco and Cincinnati up next. The Bucs could be staring at a 5-9 record, and Brady would certainly be looking to jump ship for a life raft in just over a month’s time.

Who could blame him?

Only a division title and a playoff berth could possibly save Bowles’ job and prevent Brady’s last season in Tampa Bay from ending in an embarrassing failure. The Bucs’ chances of that happening increase mightily with a win on Monday night, or they certainly plummet with a loss.

FAB 2. If He Plays, Where Would Brady Play In 2023?

If Tom Brady were to play another year and suit up for a 24th NFL season where would it be? Probably not in Tampa Bay after a tumultuous 2022 season ripe with some dysfunction within the organization and an offense that generates only 18.2 points per game.

Brady would be a free agent in 2023 and here are some likely landing spots for the GOAT next offseason if we wants to continue his illustrious NFL career.

San Francisco 49ers

Brady is from California and San Francisco was his favorite team growing up. He actually wanted to sign with the 49ers after leaving the Patriots in 2020, but San Francisco had just been to the Super Bowl with Jimmy Garappolo, who had just signed a five-year, $137 million contract in 2018. So general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan actually declined Brady’s interest.

Brady is not a Garoppolo fan and might take some pleasure in unseating him in San Francisco for what could be his final year in the NFL. Shanahan has already taken the 49ers to the Super Bowl before, and San Francisco has a very stout defense. Throw in the fact that Brady’s parents still live in California and it could be a perfect match.

The 49ers have the weaponry that would appeal to Brady in Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle, Pro Bowl receiver Deebo Samuel and Pro Bowl running back Christian McCaffrey. Not to mention wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, a first-round pick who is actually leading San Francisco in catches (51), yards (652) and touchdowns (six). Brady will be visiting the Bay area next week. Will he want to return there in 2023?

Las Vegas Raiders

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

According to UFC’s Dana White, Brady was close to signing with the Raiders after they moved to Las Vegas from Oakland. But Derek Carr was under contract and Jon Gruden wasn’t sure Brady was a great fit – again, according to White.

The Raiders also have appealing weapons that could draw Brady’s interest. Las Vegas has Pro Bowl tight end Darren Waller, Pro Bowl receiver Davante Adams, slot receiver Hunter Renfrow and running back Josh Jacobs.

The appeal to Brady could also be head coach Josh McDaniels, who served as Brady’s offensive coordinator for years in New England. Even though the Raiders are mired in a 4-7 record might not mean much. Brady joined a 7-9 Bucs team and got them to 11-5 in 2020 en route to a Super Bowl championship.

Miami Dolphins

There was a plan to possibly lure Brady and head coach Sean Payton to Miami this offseason with Brady eventually becoming part of the Dolphins ownership group. The investigation into the questionable firing of head coach Brian Flores torpedoed that plan, leaving a return to the Bucs as the only option for Brady if he wanted to play football in 2022.

The Dolphins are 8-3 and are loaded with offensive weapons, especially at receiver with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Brady is still one of the best deep throwers in the game and those two are both averaging over 14 yards per catch with 10 touchdowns between them. Mike Geisicki is a good tight end and running backs Raheem Mostert and Chase Edmonds can both catch the ball.

Mike McDaniel is an offensive-minded head coach and play-caller who might be fun for Brady to play for. If the Dolphins are 8-3 with oft-injured Tua Tagovailoa, how good could they be with Brady at the helm? Tagovailoa would become trade bait if Brady came because of his health concerns.

New England Patriots

Bucs QB Tom Brady and Patriots owner Robert Kraft – Photo by: USA Today

Would Brady considering a homecoming for his final NFL season(s)? He’s already proved that he can win without Bill Belichick, becoming a Super Bowl champion in Tampa Bay in 2020. Perhaps finishing his career where it began would be Brady’s perfect ending. Does Brady want to be a nomad and play for three different teams in his last five years in the NFL?

The Patriots have a nice 1-2 punch at running back with Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris. Jakobi Meyers, DeVante Parker and Nelson Agholor are a good trio of receivers – a better collection than what Brady had to work with at the end of his Patriots career in 2019. Hunter Henry is no Gronk, but he and Jonnu Smith are better than average tight ends.

Brady relishes spending time with his oldest son, Jack, who lives in New York. Being closer to Jack and returning to his original football home in Boston can’t be ruled out of the equation. The Patriots could trade Mac Jones and would have Bailey Zappe as Brady’s replacement in 2024.

FAB 3. Matchups To Watch: Bucs Offense vs. Saints Defense

Each week, you can find five matchups to watch on offense and defense in my SR’s Fab 5 column. Here are the five key matchups to watch on offense when the Bucs take on the Saints on Monday Night Football in Tampa.

RT Josh Wells vs. DE Cameron Jordan

Jordan has been a Buc killer with 17 career sacks against Tampa Bay, including three last year. Only the Falcons have surrendered more sacks (23) than the Bucs have to the seven-time Pro Bowler. He’s had some great battles against Tristan Wirfs in the six games they’ve squared off in. But Wirfs isn’t playing on Monday night due to a high ankle sprain. That means Jordan will face Wells and could have a monster game against the Bucs’ backup tackle.

Wells is in for a stiff challenge facing Jordan, who is the Saints’ leading sacker on the defensive line with 5.5 QB captures. The 31-year old reserve has only played 80 snaps this year, mostly as an extra tight end in run blocking situations. Wells has a 71.6 Pro Football Focus grade in run blocking, but a 54.1 grade in pass protection. He’s given up one sack and has one penalty on the season, and will have his hands full against Jordan.
ADVANTAGE: Jordan

QB Tom Brady vs. MLB Demario Davis

Bucs QB Tom Brady and Saints MLB Demario Davis – Photo by: USA Today

The 33-year old Davis is an ageless wonder, having a Pro Bowl-caliber season with a team-high 73 tackles and a career-high 6.5 sacks. Not only is Davis a dangerous blitzer, he is smart enough to match wits with Brady with his pre-snap reads. Few linebackers are experienced enough to go toe-to-toe with the greatest QB of all time – Davis is one of those defenders.

Brady finally had a decent game against the Saints in a 20-10 win in New Orleans. He threw for a season-low 190 yards and completed a season-low 52.9% of his passes, but he avoided takeaways and threw a touchdown. Brady has done a great job protecting the ball with just two interceptions, but he has only 14 touchdowns after throwing 43 last year. The 45-year old QB has been getting rid of the ball quickly – almost too quickly – this year.
ADVANTAGE: Push

WR Mike Evans vs. CB Bradley Roby

Marshon Lattimore and Evans can’t stand each other and have come to blows several times over the years. The most recent dust up happened in Week 2 and Evans got suspended for the Packers game the next week. But Lattimore has missed seven games with a kidney injury and Roby and Paulson Adebo will be charged with slowing Evans down. Adebo has surrendered four touchdowns and Roby has given up one. Neither has an interception.

Evans has had a sub-par year in terms of not being on the same page with Tom Brady. The two have only connected for three touchdowns this season after Evans caught a franchise-record 14 TDs last year and 13 the year prior. Evans is coming off his worst game at Cleveland with a 45.3 PFF grade. He was held to a season-low two catches for 21 yards on nine targets in Tampa Bay’s 23-17 overtime loss.
ADVANTAGE: Push

LT Donovan Smith vs. DE Marcus Davenport

Bucs LT Donovan Smith – Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Davenport splits time with at right defensive end with Carl Granderson. He has the fifth-highest PFF grade (75.2) to go along with his half sack and his 21 hurries. Davenport, a former first-round pick, has fewer sacks than Granderson, but has the most pressures on the team (27). He’s given Smith a hard time before, notching two sacks in 2019 and a sack in 2021.

Smith has really struggled this year after having his best season in 2021. He has a 52.8 overall grade from Pro Football Focus. He’s given up six sacks and has seven penalties through 11 games. To put that in perspective, Smith only had eight penalties and surrendered one sack in 2021. Smith had a season-low 27.8 overall grade and a 28.5 pass blocking grade against Myles Garrett and the Browns last week.
ADVANTAGE: Davenport

WR Chris Godwin vs. DB Tyrann Mathieu

Mathieu plays all over the field in Dennis Allen’s defense. He’s played 369 snaps in the box, 115 as a slot cornerback and 249 snaps at free safety. Mathieu is the third-highest grade on the team at 79.6, including a 79.9 coverage grade. The Saints only have two interceptions this season with Mathieu having both of them. With Godwin being a significant threat in the passing game, Dennis Allen might match up Mathieu against him in the slot quite often.

Godwin has been rounding back into his playing form from a year ago before his injury. It’s almost been a year since he had his knee injury against the Saints in Tampa, and it’s been a long-road back. But Godwin had his most productive game with 12 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown – his second in as many games. Godwin will need to have a similar type game if the Bucs are going to sweep the Saints.
ADVANTAGE: Push

FAB 4. Matchups To Watch: Bucs Defense vs. Saints Offense

Each week, you can find five matchups to watch on offense and defense in my SR’s Fab 5 column. Here are the five key matchups to watch on defense for the Bucs as they try to sweep the Saints by beating New Orleans in Tampa on Monday Night Football.

CB Carlton Davis III vs. WR Chris Olave

Olave is having a tremendous rookie season. The first-round pick lines up all over – out wide to the left and right in addition to the slot. Olave had a decent game against the Bucs in Week 2 with five catches for 80 yards, but it was his lowest-graded game with a 56.6 grade. He’s only dropped one pass this season, but it was a potential touchdown and he also had a big fumble in the fourth quarter. But Olave leads the Saints with 56 catches for 822 yards (14.7 avg.) and three TDs.

Davis has struggled with injuries this year, missing a couple of games. He didn’t fare well in New Orleans, giving up 10 catches for 142 yards and a touchdown. Davis also had a bad game in Cleveland, surrendering six catches for 109 yards. The Bucs paid him handsomely in the offseason, but he hasn’t really earned his big payday. Davis has allowed two touchdowns and has yet to record an interception.
ADVANTAGE: Olave

ILB Devin White vs. TE Taysom Hill

Saints weapon Taysom Hill and Bucs ILB Devin White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Hill is developing a reputation for being a thorn in the side of Tampa Bay. He’s played quarterback, tight end and ran the ball against the Bucs, in addition to returning a kick. Hill led the Saints to a 9-0 win at Ray-Jay last year playing QB, but will be used as a tight end and an occasional wildcat QB in the red zone with Andy Dalton under center right now. The 6-foot-2, 221-pound athlete has rushed for 409 yards and a team-high five TDs, while averaging 7.1 yards per carry.

White will be charged with covering running back Alvin Kamara out of the backfield if he’s healthy enough to play. But White will also have to cover Hill as well. White has been fair in coverage, so this will be a challenge. As will be stopping Hill as a ballcarrier in the QB run game. White needs to play better than he did last week in Cleveland.
ADVANTAGE: Hill

DT Vita Vea vs. LG Andrus Peat

Peat has missed four games due to injury this year and has had an awful season. He’s got a 49.1 overall PFF grade and a 34.7 pass protection grade. Peat has given up two sacks and a total of 13 pressures with two penalties. The 6-foot-7, 316-pounder has not lived up to his first-round draft status, but he’s managed to stay in New Orleans for eight seasons.

Vea leads the Bucs with 6.5 sacks this season and is coming into his own as a pass rusher. He was the highest-graded Bucs defender with an 81 PFF grade against Cleveland and is playing better against the run. Vea has the chance to make his second straight Pro Bowl if he can finish the season strong. He’ll need to get to Andy Dalton for the Bucs to win, and he’ll need to get through Peat to make that happen.
ADVANTAGE: Vea

OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka vs. RT Ryan Ramczyk

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Saints QB Taysom Hill – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Ramcyzk, Tristan Wirfs or Lane Johnson – which one is the best right tackle in football? The Saints will say that Ramczyk still is and he’s had a solid year. But his 77.4 PFF grade is the lowest of his six-year career in New Orleans. Ramczyk has already allowed three sacks and committed four penalties this year. Last season he didn’t commit a penalty and only surrendered two sacks.

Tryon-Shoyinka will likely play on both sides of the line, but the Bucs will probably try to match up his speed against Ramczyk’s might. He’s been inconsistent as a pass rusher this season, but really needs to step it up with the loss of Shaquil Barrett. Tryon-Shoyinka had a bad game in Cleveland and must play better if the Bucs want to have a chance to sweep the Saints. It’s time for JTS to turn into a game-wrecker, and Monday night would be a great time to start.
ADVANTAGE: Ramczyk

LB Lavonte David vs. RB Alvin Kamara

Kamara has not had a great season and has four fumbles on the year, which is more than the number of touchdowns he’s scored. The Pro Bowl running back has just one TD this season, just two years removed from a career-high 16 rushing scores. Kamara has 524 yards rushing and 422 yards receiving, but only has two TDs through the air. He’s still a viable dual-threat weapon for New Orleans, but at age 27 he seems to be slowing down and not as dangerous as he once was.

David has 78 tackles this year, but isn’t making the splash plays that he’s used to making. He has one sack, no interceptions and no forced fumbles or fumble recoveries. At age 32, David just isn’t the player he was before, but is still a consistent defender when it comes to coverage and tackling. He’ll have his hands full covering Kamara out of the backfield.
ADVANTAGE: Push

FAB 5. SR’s Buc Shots

Bucs QB Tom Brady and WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

• Evans-Brady Connection Failing Bucs Right Now: Bucs head coach Todd Bowles acknowledged that the connection between quarterback Tom Brady and receiver Mike Evans is off this year. Evans was targeted nine times last week in Cleveland and was held to just two catches for 31 yards. But where this connection is failing the Bucs is in point production. Evans only has three touchdowns this season and had 10 through 11 games last year. The greatest receiver in Bucs history finished the 2021 season with a franchise-record 14 TDs, beating his previous record of 13 in 2020

If the Bucs could get a few more touchdowns from Evans as they’ve been used to instead of Ryan Succop field goals Tampa Bay could be averaging 22 points per game instead of 18.2. That’s the four-point differential between getting a touchdown from Evans instead of settling for a Succop field goal. At 22 points per game, the Bucs might have beaten the Packers, 22-14, or the Steelers, 22-18, or the Panthers, 22-21. And also the Browns, 22-17, instead of going into overtime.

That’s four more potential wins for the Bucs and a possible 9-2 record instead of a 5-6 record. Even just splitting those four games and getting two more wins would put the Bucs in a more advantageous situation at 7-4 heading into a big Monday Night Football game against New Orleans. The Bucs need more touchdowns from the Brady-Evans connection – and fast.

CELSIUS PEWTER REPORT TAILGATE PREGAME SHOW AT WALK-ONS

Bucs fans and Pewter Report fans can join the PR staff for a LIVE pregame show before each Bucs game – home and away – at Walk-Ons Sports Bistreaux. The CELSIUS Pewter Report Tailgate Show is presented by Age Rejuvenation. The pre-game show for the Bucs-Saints game this Monday night will begin at 6:30 p.m. at the Midtown Tampa location and the PR Tailgate Show begins at 8:20 p.m. ET.

For those Bucs fans outside of the Tampa Bay area, every CELSIUS Pewter Report Tailgate Show presented by Age Rejuvenation will be streamed live on the PewterReportTV YouTube channel.

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The CELSIUS Pewter Report Tailgate Show presented by Age Rejuvenation is an hour-and-a-half show and begins two hours prior to kickoff each week. Thirty minutes prior to kickoff, Matt Matera and Josh Queipo take over on the livestream and add their insight and pregame analysis. Then, Pewter GameDay begins as the Bucs kick off with Matera and a special guest providing insight and commentary throughout the game.

THIS WEEK’S PEWTER REPORT PODCASTS

• BUCS-SAINTS PREVIEWS ON THE PEWTER REPORT PODCAST: The Pewter Report Podcast is energized by CELSIUS and broadcasts four live episodes each week. Next week’s schedule will feature PR Podcasts on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday as the Bucs play the Saints on Monday Night Football then prepare to travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers.

The Bucs were stunned in overtime in Cleveland and Matt Matera and Scott Reynolds broke down all the action on Sunday afternoon.

Matera and Reynolds discuss Todd Bowles’ disastrous press conference from Monday the day after the Bucs’ overtime loss to the Browns.

Matera and Reynolds talk about the loss of Tristan Wirfs for the Saints game on Wednesday’s podcast.

Matera and J.C. Allen preview Monday’s Bucs vs. Saints game on the Thursday podcast.

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