Much like last year, the Bucs are heading into the regular-season finale playing some of their best football. Coming off a 48-14 win over the Panthers which was the most complete team win of the year, Tampa Bay has now won five out of its last six games. It has them sitting at 9-7 and in control of their own destiny heading into a Week 18 matchup against the Saints.

How does their late-season run place them among other teams looking to make some noise heading into the playoffs?

How Do The Bucs Compare To Other Teams Gearing Up For The Playoffs?

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

They still need to win on Sunday, but should they, the Bucs will make the 2024 playoffs as NFC South champions.

Although the Saints come marching into town fresh off a 25-10 loss to the Raiders and being shut out by the Packers 34-0 the week before, it is still a game the home team will need to come out and show up to. Divisional games are never easy, but a Tampa Bay victory will have them heading into the postseason as winners of six out of their last seven games.

How they stack up to teams readying for the playoffs is not as simple. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell recently looked at some of the biggest storylines emerging from Week 17. In one segment, Barnwell looks at five teams that nobody will want to face going deeper into the month of January.

He does lay out some criteria to make his list, outlining that it is not just juggernaut teams like the Chiefs and Lions to worry about. Even teams that don’t have the best record or the most experience can get hot at the right time and do enough to pull off an upset.

The Bucs rank fourth on his list. They rank above the Commanders but below the Rams, Bengals, and Vikings.

Todd Bowles’ team has gone 5-1 over its past six games, although that one loss was against Cooper Rush and the Cowboys in prime time in Week 16. Since their Week 11 bye, the Bucs rank fourth in the league in points per drive and fifth in EPA per play on offense. They racked up 506 yards and 40 points in a comfortable victory over the Chargers earlier this month.

That win was impressive, but I’d also gently point out that the other victories in this winning streak came over the Giants, Raiders and in a home-and-home vs. the Panthers, which isn’t exactly playoff-caliber competition. Then again, this Tampa Bay team beat the Lions and Eagles in September, took the Chiefs to overtime and has a quarterback in Baker Mayfield who has thrown for 260-plus yards and three touchdowns in three of his four playoff starts. Ask the Eagles whether they want to see the Bucs again after what has happened the past two times they’ve played them.

Bucs WR Mike Evans and OC Liam Coen – Photo by: Cliff Welch P/R

I wanted to share Barnwell’s analysis because it accurately and succinctly describes the season and current state of the Bucs.

They have been rolling post-bye week, but it has also come against teams competing more for top picks than playoff seeds. They have gotten right and have had statement wins over the Chargers and Panthers recently, but they also lost to the Cowboys in a tough game. They beat top teams such as the Lions in Detroit and the Eagles early on, but also suffered tough losses to the Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, and 49ers.

For all the good football Tampa Bay has played, there has also been a negative connotation next to it, which makes them an interesting team to dissect heading into the playoffs.

On one hand, they have a Super Bowl-level offense that deserves more credit all around for what they have done this year, and when the defense is rolling and playing complementary football, few teams can hang around. On the other hand, the defense has struggled throughout the year and when they give up more than 20 points, they are 3-7. It will take a combined effort on both sides of the football to make a deep playoff run, but they have shown enough to be a formidable opponent against anyone.

Todd Bowles And Baker Mayfield Comment On Where The Bucs Stand

Speaking to the media on Wednesday afternoon, head coach Todd Bowles and quarterback Baker Mayfield discussed whether the team is peaking at the right time and the belief they kept in themselves despite a four-game losing streak that dropped them to 4-6. At 9-7, the outlook has gotten a lot brighter.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

“We’ve won five out of six, so we’ve got to win one more,” Bowles said about the team playing better after dealing with mid-season adversity. “I like the way we’re playing right now. We’ve just got to keep the mistakes down.”

With Mayfield at the helm, it’s hard to bet against Tampa Bay from staying in the thick of things and making the season interesting. As the leader and captain of a team that embodies resilience, he helped guys keep the faith and right the ship on the road to the playoffs.

“I truly believed it,” Mayfield said of whether he believed the team would end up back in the playoff hunt. “I had said it early on – this team had the mental makeup to overcome anything, and we do. It’s hard when you’re in the middle of it, in the thick of it, trying to see what’s going wrong, try to find those answers and fix it. Sometimes it takes longer than others.

“It goes back to doing the little things right, guys being on the same page, communicating, and at this point in the year we’ve played a lot of ball. There’s not much you can really install that’s new, so it’s about communicating and being on the same page and our guys are doing that.”

Nothing is guaranteed, and heading into Week 18, there is a lot on the line. The Bucs have relied on their offense to set the tone and that will need to continue this week and beyond.

“I’ll speak from an offense perspective – still playing aggressive, still playing to win, to go win the game, not just to get by,” Mayfield said. “Having that same mentality we’ve carried through of trying to score a lot of points early and often, to let the defense get after them a little bit. That’s our mentality on offense – to score as many [points] as we possibly can and don’t look back.”