Having lost two of their last three games to slip to 6-3 after a 5-1 start, the Bucs now embark on a tough two-game road trip against two of the top five Super Bowl favorites entering Week 11. It starts in Orchard Park this Sunday as Tampa Bay matches up with the 6-3 Buffalo Bills.

Not only are the Bucs looking to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time this season and a third loss in four games, but they’re also searching for their first-ever road win over the Bills.

While the Bucs do have a 1.5-game lead in the NFC South and are heavy favorites to five-peat as division champions, a loss would drop them further behind the rest of the pack in the NFC, which would set them up with a less-than-favorable Wild Card Weekend matchup if things keep trending the way they are.

As for the Bills, they might have the fifth-best odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy right now, but they trail the Patriots for the AFC East lead by two games entering Sunday. A win would get that back to a 1.5-game deficit, but a home loss would make it 2.5 and give New England a stranglehold on the division as it looks to end Buffalo’s five-year reign atop the East.

Let’s dive further into what might decide this matchup, as well as some key players to watch in another NFC-AFC matchup for Tampa Bay this Sunday:

What Might Decide This Bucs-Bills Matchup?

Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense have to be better on Sunday or else this team doesn’t stand a chance of earning an upset in Orchard Park. Mayfield has looked much less like an MVP candidate over the last three weeks, and it has badly affected Tampa Bay’s offensive output and overall consistency. If he shows up against the Bills’ third-ranked pass defense and looks like the guy who willed the Bucs to a big road win at Seattle in Week 5, it’ll bode well. But if he’s more of the guy he was against the Lions and Saints in Weeks 7 and 8, the visitors will be in trouble at Highmark Stadium.

Mayfield deserves plenty of the blame for the offense’s recent struggles, as he’s seemingly created his own pressure at times and has been missing open receivers far too regularly. But the protection from the guys up front could be better, too, and that comes down to communication. As Pewter Report’s Josh Queipo outlined well in this week’s roundtable, it’s not like the O-line is having guys get beat one-on-one with a lot of frequency. It’s more often communication breakdowns on the interior that have been a problem, and that’s something that needs to be fixed no matter who is in the game this Sunday.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

It would be a big help to Mayfield and the offense if the run game could hit a new level, and perhaps Sunday may be a realistic time for that to happen. As nice as it was to see Sean Tucker become the first running back to break 50 yards against the Patriots’ top-ranked rush defense last week, it’s time to think bigger and see more from Tucker and Rachaad White, as the Bills have the third-worst run defense in the NFL. If Tampa Bay can finally have a breakout game on the ground, it could go a long way in taking pressure off the shoulders of Mayfield and the passing game.

The assumption right now is that it’ll be Tucker and White leading the way on the ground, but could that change? Bucky Irving returned as a limited participant in practice this week for the first time since suffering foot and shoulder injuries in Week 4. Head coach Todd Bowles has said there’s no timetable for the running back’s return and that he needs to be able to take a hit in order to prove he’s ready. Could he get a chance on Sunday? It remains to be seen. The same goes for Chris Godwin Jr., who also has a murky timeline for his return but did make it back to practice as a limited participant this week as well.

Defensively for the Bucs, the big deciding factor in this game will be whether they’ve figured out how to stop the explosive plays. That’s what did Tampa Bay in last week against New England with Kyle Williams’ 72-yard touchdown catch and run, Mack Hollins’ 54-yard catch on third and long and TreVeyon Henderson’s touchdown runs of 55 and 69 yards. Gap integrity will be a big key in terms of stopping James Cook and clogging up escape lanes for the always-mobile Josh Allen. If Bowles’ defense can bottle up those two, it could frustrate what has been an up-and-down Buffalo offense and create an edge for the away team.

Bucs SS Tykee Smith and FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

Getting back to the sacks and takeaways they were piling up before the bye week would be big for the Bucs on Sunday, too, as they had just one sack and a late Tykee Smith interception in last week’s loss. As good as Allen is, he can make mistakes. Just a week ago, he had an interception and a lost fumble in the Bills’ 30-13 loss to the 3-7 Dolphins. Cook had a fumble in that game, too. If Tampa Bay can take the ball away, it’ll neutralize the high-powered Buffalo offense.

Similarly to the way the Bucs should feel good about their chances if the good Baker Mayfield shows up in Week 11, the Bills should feel good if they get the elite version of Josh Allen that won MVP last year and has engineered big wins over the Ravens and Chiefs so far this year. There’s another version of Allen that can emerge from time to time, too, and while that version is still good and plenty productive, he can be more erratic. The big dual-threat quarterback has reined in the “mash all the buttons” plays in recent years, but they can still come out from time to time. The Bills can’t afford for them to show up in this game.

The concern for the Bills on offense is where they’ll get production in the passing game without tight end Dalton Kincaid, who left last week’s loss with a hamstring injury, hasn’t practiced this week and is considered week-to-week. Kincaid is Buffalo’s second-leading receiver and leads the team in receiving touchdowns. Veteran tight end Dawson Knox is far from a bad replacement, but the likes of Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman and Joshua Palmer will have to find ways to beat Zyon McCollum, Jamel Dean, Jacob Parrish and Co. in the Buccaneer secondary in order for the Buffalo offense to start humming without Kincaid.

Bills RB James Cook – Photo by: USA Today

The other hope for the Bills offense is that James Cook breaks off the kind of runs TreVeyon Henderson exploded for against the Bucs last week. Of his seven touchdowns this season, Cook has a 44-yarder, a 64-yarder and a 21-yarder. He can break away from a defense, which is why Tampa Bay has to stay disciplined up front and not allow him to get through and beyond the second level. The guys up front have to make sure whatever gap issues were exploited last week against Henderson and the Patriots don’t resurface this week. Because if they do, Cook will take advantage of them and put the Bills in a great position to win.

On defense, there should be three main points for Buffalo. For one, getting pressure on Mayfield is a must. Tampa Bay’s franchise quarterback has rarely looked comfortable in recent weeks, and if the Bills can keep that going, it could lead to his accuracy issues persisting and render the Buccaneer passing game ineffective or, at best, inconsistent. The Bills are around the middle of the pack in terms of sacks this season, and it has been a group effort rather than one guy dominating. But Joey Bosa (four sacks), Gregory Rousseau (three) and A.J. Epenesa (2.5) are all threats to get after the quarterback.

The second point of emphasis for the Buffalo defense has to be stopping Emeka Egbuka. The current Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite is up to 40 catches for 677 yards and six touchdowns this season, and in the absences of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin Jr., Egbuka has been Mayfield’s No. 1 target. And the task of being the go-to guy hasn’t been too big for the No. 19 overall pick, either. If the Bucs are going to get anything going through the air against the Bills and their top three pass defense, he will be at the center of it. So, stopping him or at least limiting his big plays will be a huge key for Buffalo.

Dolphins RB De’Von Achane – Photo by: USA Today

And, of course, the final point for the Bills defense is that they simply have to find a way to stop the run. The Bucs rushing attack hasn’t been what it was last year through the first nine games of 2025, but with the way things have looked for this Buffalo unit, there’s a chance this matchup is exactly what Tampa Bay needs. De’Von Achane ran for 59- and 35-yard touchdowns against the Bills last week on his way to 174 yards on 22 carries. If the home team allows that kind of rushing performance again on Sunday, it might mean a long day and its fourth loss of the year.

Key Players To Watch

As much as we focused on Emeka Egbuka above, fellow rookie Tez Johnson has stepped up in recent weeks and could be a big factor in this game. He has 14 catches for 188 yards (13.4 avg.) and four touchdowns over the last four games and has been huge in the absence of Tampa Bay’s top receivers. Egbuka will draw plenty of attention on Sunday, which could mean it’s Johnson who will need to drive some of the offense throughout the day. While he didn’t necessarily see the starters back when the Bucs and Bills met in the preseason, he did catch eight passes for 58 yards and a touchdown on that night.

Bucs WR Tez Johnson – Photo by: USA Today

The heat turned up to another level last week for SirVocea Dennis. Buccaneer fans were already upset with the lack of movement at the trade deadline given that they wanted a replacement for Dennis, who has drawn criticism throughout his first full season as a starter. He was a target again last week after notching just one tackle in the loss to the Patriots. Never mind that he actually graded out pretty well and has largely been better in recent weeks – he’s still a popular punching bag right now. That could change if he can get to the quarterback, make a big play, contain James Cook or effectively spy Josh Allen in Sunday’s game.

Josh Allen? The reigning MVP is an athletic freak, and he can do damage with both his arm and legs. He has 2,139 passing yards and 15 touchdowns to five interceptions this season, with another 311 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground. He is 82-37 as the Bills’ starting quarterback and has done well against the Bucs in the past, throwing for 308 yards, two touchdowns and an interception while rushing for 109 yards and another touchdown in a 2021 meeting before throwing for 324 yards, two touchdowns and an interception with 41 yards and a touchdown on the ground in a 2023 meeting.

Bills QB Josh Allen – Photo by: USA Today

Second-year safety Cole Bishop, a second-round pick in 2024, has been a do-it-all player for the Buffalo defense this season. He is the Bills’ leading tackler with 48 (33 solo) and has two sacks, three tackles for loss, a team-high six passes defensed and two interceptions, which is tied for the team lead. He could make a game-changing play at any moment and has yet to allow a touchdown in coverage this season. The former Utah standout has been a big-time presence in just his second NFL season.