Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The Bucs slid to 4-4 on the year after a 31-26 loss to the Falcons at home on Sunday. Tampa Bay now travels to Kansas City to face Patrick Mahomes and the undefeated Chiefs at Arrowhead on Monday Night Football. After a promising 3-1 start, the Bucs have now lost three out of their last four games – primarily due to the poor play on defense.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Bucs LB Lavonte David – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay has not had success in primetime this year, losing at Atlanta, 36-30 in overtime on Thursday Night Football in Week 5, and at home versus Baltimore, 41-31, on Monday Night Football in Week 7. A loss in Kansas City seems likely, especially given Tampa Bay’s struggles on defense. Should that happen, the Bucs would be in the midst of a three-game losing streak and fall below .500 at 4-5. Next up would be another tough test against the other Super Bowl LVIII participant, the San Francisco 49ers in Tampa Bay. Another loss would send the Bucs to 4-6 heading into the bye week.

Somehow, someway Tampa Bay needs to pull off an upset in one of the next two games. With the Falcons sweeping the Bucs and owning the NFC South tiebreaker, Tampa Bay will have to finish one game ahead of Atlanta in the final standings in order to win the NFC South. That could be a tall order, especially having to come back from a possible 4-6 hole after the bye week. If the Bucs are 4-6, getting to 10 wins will be a challenge and will require the team to go 6-1 down the stretch. And if Atlanta is also 10-7, the Falcons will win the division due to the tiebreaker, leaving Tampa Bay hoping that 10 wins is enough to earn a Wild Card.

Perhaps more importantly, if the Bucs defense doesn’t fix some coverage issues and start taking the ball away any chance of a strong finish might be a moot point. Tampa Bay’s offense is now hampered without star receiver Chris Godwin for the rest of the season and Mike Evans for at least the next two games. The Chiefs defense is among the league’s best, so scoring 24 points, like the Bucs did last week, might be difficult to do in Kansas City. Head coach Todd Bowles needs to get his unit to play better for morale’s sake – win or lose – on Monday Night Football.

What’s At Stake For The Chiefs

Bucs RT Tristan Wirfs and Chiefs DT Chris Jones – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Chiefs might have a perfect 7-0 record this year, but all has not been perfect in Kansas City. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes actually has more interceptions (nine) than he does touchdowns (eight) this year, but that could very well change against one of the worst pass defenses in the league when Tampa Bay comes to town. Mahomes is without his top receiver in the passing game in Rashee Rice, who is out for the year with a knee injury. Speedy rookie Xavier Worthy, the team’s first-round pick, has flashed moments of brilliance and leads the Chiefs with three touchdown catches. But the Chiefs offense has had to shift from a wide open passing attack featuring receivers to one that features the tight ends.

Travis Kelce is still a reliable target, and Mahomes’ go-to-guy with 38 catches for 335 yards and a touchdown. Noah Grey has been a nice complementary option at tight end, too. He’s caught 17 passes for 208 yards, and his 12.2-yard average is better than Kelce’s 8.8-yard average. Kareem Hunt has done a nice job picking up the slack for the injured Isiah Pacheco and providing balance to Andy Reid’s offense.

The Chiefs are winning more with defense this year. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo No. 5 in total defense (295 avg.) and No. 5 in scoring defense, allowing just 17.6 points per game. Defensive tackle Chris Jones is one of the most disruptive pass rushers in the game and he gets help up front from high-motor defensive end George Karlaftis. The two have combined for six sacks. Linebackers Leo Chenal and Nick Bolton are athletic playmakers, and Kansas City has some good, unheralded players in the secondary. But Spagnuolo’s play-calling is supreme, and a big reason why the Chiefs are undefeated.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs CB Zyon McCollum – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay has a Herculean task ahead of itself to pull off an upset in primetime against undefeated Kansas City at Arrowhead. The Bucs will need to play ball control offense and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines and limit the Chiefs’ offensive possessions. Getting an early lead would not only aid the Bucs’ chances of winning, but also quiet the Arrowhead crowd to a degree. Arrowhead is at its loudest during primetime games. The offensive line will have to avoid false starts to prevent getting behind in down-and-distance.

Offensive coordinator Liam Coen will have to be on-point as a play-caller and continue to manufacture yards and points as he did in his first game without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin last week. The only problem is that Kansas City’s defense is much more stout than Atlanta’s. Reining in Baker Mayfield is another challenge, as he’s thrown seven interceptions combined over the last three weeks against his 10 touchdown passes.

More importantly, Todd Bowles defense needs to get its act together. The Bucs need to get effective when it comes to rushing the passer and get Patrick Mahomes on the ground or at least off kilter. The pass coverage has been the team’s Achilles heel this year, especially in the middle of the field where linebackers Lavonte David and K.J. Britt have really struggled, as have safeties Jordan Whitehead and Antoine Winfield Jr. Not only must the Bucs defend the pass better in Kansas City, Tampa Bay’s defense must create takeaways and win the turnover battle to have a chance of pulling the upset.

The Chiefs Win If…

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Chiefs rarely lose, and when they do it’s usually not at home and it’s not in primetime. The Arrowhead crowd serves as a 12th man and can help the defense by causing false starts on the offense with the noise that the fans generate. Getting an early lead against a Bucs team that is down its top two weapons will be helpful and get the crowd into a frenzy. This could be the get-well Patrick Mahomes needs to finally throw more touchdowns than interceptions on the year. Tampa Bay’s pass defense has allowed nine passing TDs over the last two games to Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins.

Mahomes needs to avoid making sacks and look downfield for Xavier Worthy. Getting Worthy lined up against Josh Hayes or Tyrek Funderburk on that side of the field will be key as only Zyon McCollum plays left cornerback for Tampa Bay – and only McCollum has the speed to keep up with Worthy. It could be a big day for Kansas City’s tight ends Travis Kelce and Noah Gray, as Tampa Bay’s defense has been terrible in the middle of the field in pass coverage.

On defense, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will need to load the box to slow down Tampa Bay’s run game and force Baker Mayfield to pass to win. Mayfield can do it – even without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – but also has a penchant for throwing interceptions, too. Blitzing Mayfield could not only lead to sacks, but also some interceptions as quick throws could lead to interceptions if Tampa Bay’s young receivers don’t read the coverage right and run the wrong choice routes.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs TE Cade Otton vs. Chiefs LB Leo Chenal

Bucs TE Cade Otton – Photo by: USA Today

Without wide receiver Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, tight end Cade Otton has emerged as Baker Mayfield’s go-to guy. Otton has 17 catches for 181 yards and two touchdowns over the last two games. He followed up his eight-catch, 100-yard game versus Baltimore with a nine-reception, 81-yard performance against Atlanta that saw him score two touchdowns on National Tight End Day. Otton received the most targets of any Bucs weapon in the loss to the Falcons, and will see plenty of action again in Kansas City on Monday Night Football.

When he’s not blitzing the quarterback, the athletic Chenal is one of the best coverage linebackers in the NFL. He had a team-high 92.5 Pro Football Focus coverage grade versus San Francisco in a win two weeks ago, but wasn’t deployed in coverage last week against the Raiders. Chenal is the top coverage defender on the Chiefs this season with an 89.3 PFF grade.

Kansas City won’t necessarily have Chenal on Otton on every play. The Chiefs used multiple defenders to slow down George Kittle two weeks ago and keep Brock Bowers in check last week. It won’t just be Chenal, as safeties Justin Reid, Bryan Cook and Chamarri Conner will also get in on the act. But Otton is going to have prevail in coverage for the Bucs offense to really move down the field and put points on the board.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs Defensive Front vs. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay’s defense has gotten inconsistent pressure and sack production when either rushing four or bringing pressure over the last two games. Todd Bowles’ defense has 21 sacks on the year, but just four in the last two games. Mahomes is the best escape artist in the NFL not named Lamar Jackson, and has only been sacked 12 times this year. He’s also scrambled 34 times for 139 yards (4.1 avg.) and a touchdown.

The Bucs absolutely must maintain their rush lanes when attempting to sack Mahomes, as he’s so elusive and one of the best improvisational running quarterbacks once he’s past the line of scrimmage. Mahomes will not be afraid to tuck the ball and run, especially against man coverage when the majority of defenders will be focused on covering receivers and tight ends and have their backs to the line of scrimmage.

What makes Mahomes even more dangerous is the fact that he can extend plays by breaking contain and still looking downfield for open receivers. Tampa Bay’s secondary will need to plaster their guys in coverage because with Mahomes the play is never really over. Speedy defensive tackle Calijah Kancey and outside linebacker Yaya Diaby have disappointed this year in terms of their lack of sack production. Kancey and Diaby have combined for just three sacks and need to show up in the Chiefs backfield and get to Mahomes and force some takeaways – either with sack-fumbles or forcing some errant throws that can lead to interceptions.