BUCS at COWBOYS

WHEN: Sunday, December 22, 2024 | WHERE: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX) | KICKOFF: 8:20 p.m. ET | TV: NBC

PLAY-BY-PLAY: Mike Tirico | ANALYST: Cris Collinsworth | SIDELINE: Melissa Stark

RADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives

Game day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report staff to make its weekly game predictions and offer up our game preview of this week’s matchup. Let us know what you think in the article comments section and add your prediction, too.

Scott Reynolds: Cowboys Can’t Keep Up With The Bucs Offense

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Stats don’t always tell the tale, but I think two stats will determine the outcome of Tampa Bay’s game at Dallas on Sunday Night Football. And no, I’m not concerned about the 0-3 mark that the Bucs have in primetime games this season. The team is playing too well right now – and the Bucs are playing the 6-8 Cowboys, not tougher foes like the Chiefs, Ravens or Falcons – to not win on Sunday night.

The stats I’m talking about are the Bucs throwing up 30 points in seven of the team’s 14 games so far. Tampa Bay is 5-2 in those games. Dallas has lost every game in which its defense has surrendered 27 points or more – all eight of them. So it comes as no surprise that the Bucs are averaging 28.8 points per game, which ranks fourth in the NFL, and that the Cowboys have the 30th-ranked scoring defense, allowing 27.1 points per game.

Throw in the fact that the Cowboys have yet to win on a Sunday in their own building (Dallas beat the hapless New York Giants, 27-20 on Thanksgiving) and I like Todd Bowles and Co. to win its fifth straight game of the season. The Bucs will remain an all-too-important victory ahead of the Falcons in the NFC South lead before heading home to face two division rivals in the Panthers and Falcons. Here’s one more stat for you, too. Tampa Bay plays better on the road than it does at home this year with a 5-2 road record.

REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 31, Cowboys 17
REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 9-5

Matt Matera: Bucs Overpower The Cowboys

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs come into this primetime game with a four-game winning streak but also having lost all three of their primetime games this year. I don’t worry too much about their winless primetime appearances, though, as all three games were close, and the Cowboys are by far the least difficult primetime opponent they’re facing. This game comes down to if the Bucs can stop the two stars that the Cowboys have, they should win.

Tampa Bay is in such a groove on the offensive side of the ball with no signs of slowing. If the Bucs want to run it with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, they’ll be able to do so. With the Cowboys secondary taking a step back as Trevon Diggs is out, Mike Evans can have another 100-yard game as Baker Mayfield goes off and Jalen McMillan contributes. All they have to do is stop Micah Parsons and then everything else is in front of them.

There’s no doubt that the Cowboys have played better as of late. They’ve found success running the football with Rico Dowdle and when they need to pass it, quarterback Cooper Rush continues to find wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. Dallas has dealt with a front like Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey, though. Much will be asked from corners Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum to slow down Lamb as well, but they’ll be prepared for it. The Bucs have found a recipe for getting big leads and forcing the opponent to get one-dimensional. Not many teams can go drive for drive with the Bucs constantly and the Cowboys won’t be able to. The Bucs will get their fifth straight victory.

MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 31, Cowboys 20
MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 9-5

Bailey Adams: Bucs Keep It Rolling For Fifth Straight Win

Bucs WR Mike Evans Photo by: USA Today

I felt pretty good about picking the Bucs over the Chargers last week, but I didn’t feel 40-17 good. That was quite the performance by Tampa Bay, and while that type of game leaves room for a letdown spot against Dallas this Sunday night, I don’t think this team will let that happen. I think these Bucs are locked in right now.

Tampa Bay’s offense is clicking in all facets, and as long as Baker Mayfield doesn’t fall victim to the turnover bug in this game, I love the matchup for Liam Coen’s offense against the Cowboys’ defense. Bucky Irving and Rachaad White should be able to lead the charge, while Mayfield will have opportunities to find Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan and Cade Otton — especially with Trevon Diggs out.

The Buccaneer defense has been playing better football too, and that’s an encouraging sign when you consider how many injuries the team is dealing with on that side of the ball. CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle will be the focus for this group, and after shutting down the run against Los Angeles last week, I like Tampa Bay’s chances to do it again. The Bucs are playing complementary football right now, and I think that leads to a fifth straight win and a 9-6 record heading into the final two weeks.

ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 31, Cowboys 20
ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 10-4

Josh Queipo: Bucs Beat Cowboys In Bar Fight

Bucs NT Vita Vea, OLB Shaquil Barrett and DT Logan Hall – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

You may be surprised to hear that the Bucs are about to face off against one of the better defenses in the NFL. Since Micah Parsons returned to the Dallas lineup in Week 10, the Cowboys are eighth in the NFL EPA/play and 14th in success rate allowed. Their pass defense is second in EPA/dropback, due in large part to Parsons running roughshod over opposing offensive lines with 39 pressures and nine sacks (as measured by Pro Football Focus) over that period.

Tampa Bay’s passing attack just came off of a game where they made a good defense look bad against the Chargers, but Parsons and Dallas’ cornerbacks are another level of opponent. The good news is that the Cowboys are still weak against the run. And I don’t know if you have heard or not, but the Bucs’ run game is good good. Expect offensive coordinator Liam Coen to lean into his vaunted rushing attack to dictate terms early and keep control of the ball.

On the other side of the ball, the Bucs’ defense has looked better in both process and results of late. Yes, they have faced inferior competition. But there are real, tangible, schematic and philosophical changes that have also spurred this resurgence. The most fascinating matchup of this game will likely be Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush against the Bucs’ heavy blitzing attack. In recent weeks Todd Bowles has gone full over the ledge, increasing his blitz rate to 48.4% topping out at 62.2% against Los Angeles. And it’s working. The Bucs’ pressure rate over the past four games is up to 42% and they have recorded 10 sacks. Bowles’ defense works when they are getting consistent pressure and forcing negative plays.

Rush, to his credit, has been very good against the blitz this year, with a +0.08 EPA/dropback and a 14.2% sack-to-pressure rate while averaging 7.2 yards per attempt and five touchdowns to just one interception. If he can play on time and in rhythm while getting the ball out quickly against the Tampa Bay onslaught, wide receiver CeeDee Lamb is good enough to make the Bucs’ back end pay. Ultimately, though I think the overall talent disparity between the Bucs and the Cowboys will help Bowles and crew to overcome their primetime curse and take their fifth straight victory.

QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 26, Cowboys 17
QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 9-5

Adam Slivon: Bucs Stars Shine Bright In Dallas

Bucs OC Liam Coen, QB Baker Mayfield and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs head into Sunday night’s Primetime game against the Cowboys winners of four straight games and looking to make it five games facing a 6-8 Dallas team that looks vastly different on the field since the start of the season. They will be missing Dak Prescott, Zack Martin, DeMarcus Lawrence, Sam Williams, DeMarvion Overshown, and Trevon Diggs, among others. Without that “star power,” they have made do with a ragtag group of supporting pieces around CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons.

Cooper Rush has taken over the reins at quarterback, leading them to a 3-3 record this season. Over a smaller sample size, they have won three of the last four games and Rush had one of his better games as a starter, completing 18 of 29 passes for 214 passing yards and three touchdowns in a 30-14 win over the Panthers.

As good as Rush was facing Carolina, he still grades as the NFL’s worst signal-caller per Pro Football Focus. Lamb has been his saving grace, and stopping him on offense neutralizes much of the passing game. Zyon McCollum and Jamel Dean have a tough assignment but are also capable of holding their own. Rico Dowdle has had an efficient year since taking over the run game from Ezekiel Elliott, with three straight 100-yard games. He is coming off a 149-yard performance, so head coach Todd Bowles will need to gameplan against these weapons and take advantage of a Dallas offensive line missing Martin and dealing with other injuries.

Offensively for the Bucs, one could say “smooth sailing” is how they operated in Los Angeles. Baker Mayfield is coming off one of his best games in red and pewter and with Mike Evans as his No. 1 guy, both could have big games in the Lone Star State. With the way the offensive line has played, they should have no problem controlling things upfront — as long as they contain Micah Parsons. Luke Goedeke will likely draw him more often, but Tristan Wirfs will have his hands full too. One key statistic stands out to me when making my prediction. The Cowboys are 0-8 when allowing 27 or more points a game, while the Bucs have averaged 28.8 points per game. I see these trends continuing and Tampa Bay getting a convincing win.

SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 34, Cowboys 20
SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 9-5