Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The Bucs improved to 8-6 on the year in Week 15 and maintained their lead in the NFC South over the Falcons, who snapped a four-game losing streak with a win in Las Vegas on Monday Night Football, 15-9. Up next for Tampa Bay is a final road game at Dallas before two home games against Carolina and New Orleans to end the season. Tampa Bay is 5-2 on the road this year, including three straight road wins, while Dallas has yet win a home game on a Sunday this season.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay is one of the hottest teams in the league right now, winning four in a row since the Week 11 bye to remain atop the NFC South with an 8-6 record. Only the Eagles and Vikings have won more games in a row. Philadelphia has reeled off 10 straight wins since losing to Tampa Bay in Week 4, and Minnesota has won seven straight since Week 9.

The Bucs have a one-game lead in the division on the Falcons, 7-7, and need to maintain that in order to win the NFC South. Tampa Bay controls its own destiny and could win the NFC South for a fourth straight season. Todd Bowles could become the first coach in franchise history to win three straight division titles in his first three seasons as head coach.

The Bucs enter Week 16 with a dubious 0-3 mark in prime time games this year. Tampa Bay lost at Atlanta on Thursday Night Football, 36-30 in overtime, and at Kansas City on Monday Night Football in overtime, 30-24. The Bucs also lost to Baltimore at home on Monday Night Football, 41-31. With most of the NFL playoff games occurring in prime time, including Tampa Bay’s last two Wild Card games in 2022 and 2023, which were on Monday night, the Bucs better find a way to start having some success and get a win on Sunday Night Football.

What’s At Stake For The Cowboys

Cowboys QB Cooper Rush – Photo by: USA Today

The Cowboys have suffered some key injuries this year and that has set the team back a bit. Quarterback Dak Prescott was struggling at the start of the year and succumbed to a season-ending hamstring injury in mid-November and was just 3-5 as a starter. Despite recently receiving a huge contract extension, Prescott had disappointed, throwing 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions before being sidelined with his injury.

Backup Cooper Rush has come in and actually played better. He’s 3-3 as a starter, including two wins in the last three weeks as the 6-8 Cowboys are trying to stay alive in the NFC Wild Card race.

Dallas likely has to win out to have a chance at making the postseason, but struggles at home. The Cowboys are 1-6 at home this year, with that lone victory coming on Thanksgiving against the hapless New York Giants, who have only won two games all year. Head coach Mike McCarthy’s job is on the line and he’s on the hot seat. To say that McCarthy needs a strong finish would be an understatement.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and OC Liam Coen – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

Tampa Bay enters Sunday’s game with the league’s fourth-best scoring offense, averaging 28.8 points per game. Since the bye week, the Bucs are a perfect 4-0 and they’ve averaged 31 points per game over that stretch. As well as the Bucs defense is playing over the last four weeks, allowing just 15 points per game which is the best mark in the NFL over that span, Liam Coen’s offense is the strength of this team and has been all year.

Dallas is 0-8 when surrendering 27 points or more this year. Tampa Bay has scored 27 points or more eight times this season and is 6-2 in those games, including last week’s 40-17 win at Los Angeles against the Chargers. The Cowboys’ scoring defense ranks 30th in the league, surrendering 27.1 points per game. So if Coen’s offense lights it up and Baker Mayfield avoids turnovers, the Bucs should win their fifth straight game.

The Bucs are Cowboys are two of the most careless teams with the football. Tampa Bay had two second quarter turnovers in last week’s win at Los Angeles, but survived those to win, 40-17. The Bucs are minus-2 in turnover differential, while the Cowboys are minus-5. If the Bucs do a better job of protecting the ball on offense while getting a few takeaways on defense, they should win their fifth straight game.

The Cowboys Win If…

Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle – Photo by: USA Today

Dallas has had a problem with turnovers this year. While backup quarterback Cooper Rush has thrown 10 touchdowns with just three interceptions, he has fumbled the ball seven times in six starts, losing two of them. He has to play turnover-free for the Cowboys to have a chance to win against an improving Bucs defense. Rush had one of his best games of the year last week at Carolina, throwing three touchdowns and no picks. He’ll need that type of game on Sunday Night Football to beat the Bucs.

Rico Dowdle has proven to be a quality running back this year. He’s rushed for 880 yards, including a trio of 100-yard games in each of the last three weeks. He’s averaged over six yards per carry in the last two games with 149 yards versus the Panthers and 131 yards against the Bengals. Dowdle isn’t fast, but is a pile-mover and a workhorse. If he runs for 100 yards against the Bucs and wears down Todd Bowles’ defense, it would give the Cowboys a great chance for victory.

Speaking of the running game, Dallas ranks 29th in run defense, allowing an average of 136.1 yards per game on the ground. Tampa Bay has one of the NFL’s most dangerous ground games this year, averaging 144.4 yards, which is tied for fourth with Green Bay. Over the last three weeks, the Bucs have averaged 203 yards per game on the ground. Unless the Cowboys defense stops Bucky Irving and Rachaad White at or behind the line of scrimmage, the Bucs could run wild in Dallas.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs OTs Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke vs. Cowboys OLB Micah Parsons

Cowboys OLB Micah Parsons – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay’s terrific tackle tandem was featured here last week against the dangerous pass rushing quartet out in Los Angeles consisting of Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, Tuli Tuipulotu and Bud Dupree. Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke dominated those Chargers defenders, holding them to a combined four tackles and just one quarterback pressure. It was a commanding performance from both Wirfs, who is one of the league’s best, and Goedeke, who is a rising star in the NFL and has become one of the league’s top right tackles.

The Bucs’ main objective this week is to prevent Cowboys Pro Bowler Micah Parsons from being the game-wrecker he is capable of being on a weekly basis if he goes off. Parsons isn’t the only pass rusher who Tampa Bay needs to be concerned with. Defensive ends Carl Lawson and Chauncey Golston have five sacks and three sacks, respectively. But neither is the fast, explosive athlete than Parsons is, and he can change the game in an instant with the right sack at the right time.

Parsons has a team-high 8.5 sacks this season and he’s on pace for his fourth-straight double-digit sack season. Parsons has averaged 13.5 sacks in each of his first three seasons in the NFL and he’s had no fewer than 13 in any season since entering the league in 2021. Over 300 of his 500-plus defensive snaps have come on the left side going against right tackles, so Goedeke will likely be facing Parsons more than Wirfs will. Goedeke has only allowed just one sack and 12 quarterback pressures this year and will definitely be up for the challenge.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs CBs Jamel Dean, Zyon McCollum and Tykee Smith vs. Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay’s dynamic duo of cornerbacks Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum was also featured in last week’s SR’s Pick-6 Preview against Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston, who had five catches for 45 yards and a touchdown. The physical Johnston fared better against McCollum, who struggles against bigger receivers, than he did against Dean. Now it’s CeeDee Lamb’s turn to take on Tampa Bay’s secondary, including rookie nickelback Tykee Smith.

The Cowboys use Lamb all over, including in the slot and outside. According to Pro Football Focus, Lamb has lined up 384 times in the slot and 392 out wide. When he’s out wide, he’s seen action on the left side 203 times against right cornerbacks, such as Dean, and he’s played on the right side against left cornerbacks like McCollum 189 times. Dean got his first interception of the season last week against Justin Herbert, and the Bucs have interceptions in back-to-back games for the first time since Week 5 and Week 6, so perhaps that trend continues in Dallas.

The 6-foot-2, 200-pound Lamb isn’t overly physical, but he’s a big, fast target who can hurt secondaries from all over. The Cowboys offense runs through Lamb, who has already crossed the 1,000-yard mark for a third straight season. Lamb has 94 catches for 1,089 yards  (11.6 avg.) and six touchdowns. He’s coming off his second 100-yard game of the year, catching nine passes for 116 yards and a touchdown in last week’s 30-14 win over the Panthers.