The 8-6 Bucs head into Jerry World in Week 16 to match up with the 6-8 Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. Tampa Bay has won four straight games and will be looking to make it five straight, which would get the team closer to locking up a fourth consecutive NFC South title.

This will be the Bucs’ regular season road finale, as they finish out the season with back-to-back home games against the Panthers and Saints. Todd Bowles’ team is 5-2 away from home this year and is looking to make that an impressive 6-2, something that could give the group confidence if it has to head out on the road deeper into the playoffs. Dallas is 1-6 at home this season, so the home fans haven’t seen a whole lot of winning at AT&T Stadium this fall.

Let’s dive into what might decide this matchup, as well as some key players to watch when these two teams – who met three times between September 2021 and January 2023 – renew acquaintances on Sunday night.

What Might Decide This Bucs-Cowboys Matchup?

Bucs RB Bucky Irving Photo by: USA Today

For the Bucs, it may be as simple as continuing to let the ground game carry them in this week’s matchup. The Dallas run defense has been better as of late, but it’s still allowing 136.1 yards per game, which ranks 29th in the league. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen may want to lean on Bucky Irving and Rachaad White in this one, especially with the way that duo – and especially Irving – finished last week’s win against the Chargers. Tampa Bay’s offensive line is mauling in the run game, and the big heavies will be ready to roll again in primetime.

As much as the run game might be able to propel the Buccaneer offense, Baker Mayfield also needs to play a clean, turnover-free game. Nothing will rile up the home crowd on Sunday Night Football quite like a potential game-swinging turnover, so Mayfield needs to avoid the mistakes in this one. And if he does turn the ball over, he needs to snap back quickly like he did against Los Angeles. Mayfield threw a second-quarter interception before going on to finish off a four-touchdown day that earned him NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. He’ll be looking to get in a rhythm with Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan and Cade Otton early on to set the tone right.

For Tampa Bay’s defense, the big keys are getting after Cooper Rush and containing both CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle. Lamb is the type of receiver who can take over a game, and the Bucs can’t let that happen on Sunday night. Shutting Dowdle and the Cowboys run game down may be just as important, though, as the defense’s ability to neutralize the Chargers on the ground last week played a huge role in their dominant performance. The better Todd Bowles‘ defense can stop the run, the more it’ll be able to pressure Rush and force him into some costly mistakes.

Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle – Photo by: USA Today

Along those lines, the Dallas offense will need to run through Lamb and Dowdle. The Cowboys will move Lamb all over the field, so Jamel Dean, Zyon McCollum, Tykee Smith and a host of Buccaneer defensive backs will have to collectively play sound football and do their best to slow him down. As for Dowdle, he’s topped 100 yards in three straight weeks, running for 112 in a win over the Giants on Thanksgiving, 131 in a tough loss to the Bengals and 149 in last week’s win over the Panthers. If he can go over 100 yards again, it might be able to give Dallas a chance for the upset.

Defensively, the Cowboys will have to hone in on the run and create some takeaways. Their 19 takeaways ties them for 11th-most in the league, and it may take two or three to keep them within striking distance of the Bucs on Sunday. If they can do what other teams are seemingly finding impossible and stop Irving and White, that will go a long way, as it can help Micah Parsons and the Dallas pass rush get after Mayfield.

It’s also worth noting that both teams come into this game with two of the league’s best kicking games. Bucs kicker Chase McLaughlin is having another exceptional season, as he’s 25-of-27 thus far with a 7-of-9 mark from beyond 50 yards. Dallas’ Brandon Aubrey has proven to be up there among the game’s best as well. Though his 32-of-38 mark overall equals out to a less-than-impressive 84.2%, he is 12-of-14 from 40-49 yards and 11-of-13 from 50+.

Key Players To Watch

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

Mike Evans is back on track in his quest to reach 1,000 yards for an NFL-record-tying 11th straight season. He has two 100-yard games in the last three weeks and is now 251 yards away from getting to that 1,000-yard mark despite missing three games this season.

He’ll look to keep his hot streak going in primetime on Sunday night, and he’ll look to do so against a Cowboys secondary that just lost Trevon Diggs for the season.

From one Bucs legend to another. Lavonte David may be approaching his 35th birthday, but the fact that he’s playing at the level he’s playing at is unbelievably impressive.

He’s coming off a game against the Chargers in which he led the team with a team-high 12 tackles (eight solo), along with 1.5 sacks, three quarterback hits and a tackle for loss. He’ll be key in trying to slow down Rico Dowdle on Sunday night.

As much focus as there needs to be on Dowdle and CeeDee Lamb, Tampa Bay can’t forget about tight end Jake Ferguson. This is a defense that has been prone to allowing big days from opposing tight ends this season, and despite Ferguson being less of a factor than he has been in the past, he still has the potential to pick up the easy yards that the Bucs might be susceptible to giving him over the middle of the field.

Cowboys OLB Micah Parsons – Photo by: USA Today

Not to mention, he has yet to reach the end zone this season, and it would be a surprise if he goes the full year without doing so.

In recent years, it’s been impossible to think “Cowboys defense” without immediately going to Micah Parsons. He hasn’t been as dominant of a force this year and has missed some time, but he’s still up to 8.5 sacks after a two-sack afternoon against the Panthers last Sunday.

Tristan Wirfs and especially Luke Goedeke must be up to the task of handling Parsons. Both tackles have been playing dominant football this season, so when either matches up with Dallas’ top pass rusher, it really will be best on best.