Sunday afternoon at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens will feature a battle between two underachieving Florida teams, though one of them still has a sliver of hope to hang onto in the race for the playoffs. The 7-8 Bucs come in needing to win to keep their NFC South title hopes alive heading into Week 18, while the already-eliminated 6-9 Dolphins will look to play a little spoiler on the final Sunday of the 2025 calendar year.

Tampa Bay has lost three straight games, six of its last seven and seven of its last nine, but the team somehow still controls its own destiny in pursuit of another division title and an NFC-best sixth straight playoff appearance. Win on Sunday in Miami and then beat Carolina at home in Week 18 and you’re playing a home game on Wild Card Weekend. Lose either game and it’s over. It’s that simple.

Miami, meanwhile, is looking to avoid its own third straight loss. Mike McDaniel’s team started 2-7 before winning four straight games to get back to 6-7, but back-to-back losses to AFC North teams dashed the slim playoff hopes that were regained with that winning streak. For the Dolphins, it’s now all about evaluating for the future and seeing what draft pick they end up with. Heading into Week 17, they’re slated to pick 10th in April, though a loss would push them higher.

Now, let’s dive further into what might decide this matchup, as well as some key players to watch in this must-win game for the Bucs down in Miami:

What Might Decide This Bucs-Dolphins Matchup?

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard need to put their team in position to win on Sunday. That’s a basic statement and something that would typically go without saying. But who knows if that’s the case anymore after what we saw in Week 16? The gameplan they ran with in Carolina last week calls everything into question. Tampa Bay went run-heavy in an attempt to control possession, largely ignoring the fact that this is an offense that features a healthy quartet of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan. All that did was limit the offense’s opportunities to score, and the unit put up 20 points over eight true possessions as a result.

Bowles and Grizzard have to be better this week, especially with this being a must-win game and especially after Bowles doubled down on that gameplan as if it was a contest being played in the early-2000s NFL. At the same time, stop me if you’ve heard this before: Baker Mayfield has to be better. The Tampa Bay passing game should be a strength, yet it just isn’t, and it’s largely on Mayfield as to why.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and OC Josh Grizzard – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

During the Bucs’ 5-1 start, Mayfield completed 66.2% of his passes for 1,539 yards and 12 touchdowns to one interception. In the 2-7 slide since, he has completed 58.5% of his passes for 1,605 yards and 11 touchdowns to seven interceptions. That’s not winning football, and if Tampa Bay is going to rescue anything out of this season over the final two weeks, its quarterback is going to have to look more like the guy he was in 2024 and during the first part of this year.

Elsewhere on offense, though, the Buccaneer run game will have a chance to establish some dominance over this Miami defense. That doesn’t mean Bowles and Grizzard need to go in with a set goal of running the ball 30 times, but Bucky Irving, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker should be able to find some success against the league’s seventh-worst run defense. How Grizzard goes about splitting up snaps could determine just how much success the Bucs have on the ground, as White has been the more efficient and effective back in recent weeks only for Irving and Tucker to get the bulk of the carries. Will that change in Week 17?

For the Bucs defense, this game will be won or lost depending on whether there’s any semblance of a classic Bowles Bucs defense left in there. Because when Bowles’ defenses have been at their best, they’ve been pressuring young quarterbacks, making their lives miserable and forcing them into mistakes. Whether it’s the four-man pass rush or any variation of schemed-up blitzes that does it, this defense needs to handle its business against rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers. There’s no excuse not to, and it starts with setting the tone early with some pressures, hits, sacks and maybe even a quick takeaway.

Now, Ewers is helped by the fact that he has a phenomenal running back with elite breakaway speed in the backfield with him. De’Von Achane is capable of breaking off a big run at any moment, and all it takes is one or two explosive plays to put this defense and this team on its heels in a game it absolutely has to win. If Achane gets going, it could open just the window the Dolphins need in order to play spoiler to the Bucs.

Dolphins RB De’Von Achane – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Sam Navarro

With all of that in mind, there’s one more intangible that needs to be a factor for the Bucs on Sunday afternoon at Hard Rock Stadium, and that’s just sheer will. There needs to be some urgency from this group, a want-to that produces a fast start and a consistent start-to-finish effort. Tampa Bay only has two wins by more than one possession this season, and Sunday needs to be the third. With the importance of the game for this team and the relative lack of juice behind this game for a struggling Miami team, this just has to be a day that sees the Buccaneers handle their business. Is this team capable of that?

On the Dolphins’ side of the matchup, a lot will fall on Ewers in his second career start. The Dolphins benched Tua Tagovailoa ahead of their Week 16 game against the Bengals, skipped right over No. 2 quarterback Zach Wilson and went right to Ewers, the seventh-round draft pick out of Texas. He was 20-of-30 for 260 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions in the 45-21 loss last week, and he can’t afford to turn the ball over on Sunday against this Bucs defense and hope to win.

The good news for Ewers is that there are holes in the Buccaneer defense for him to exploit. The middle of the field remains a problem, and lapses in coverage are still too frequent. Just look at the way Jamel Dean played that rep against Tetairoa McMillan at the end of the first half last week. Speedy receiver Jaylen Waddle and veteran tight end Darren Waller are the likeliest candidates to find those gaps in the defense, and if Ewers can stay poised and make the easy throws that will 100% be there, it’ll keep Miami’s offense on schedule and keep the pressure on Tampa Bay.

Dolphins QB Quinn Ewers – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Sam Navarro

Adding to that pressure on the defense will be Achane. He’s a home run threat on every play, and a 120+ day from him could be the difference in the game. But if the Dolphins can’t get him going and the Bucs contain him the way they managed to keep Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard in check last week in Carolina, Miami’s offense will suddenly become extremely one-dimensional, with the one dimension being a seventh-round rookie quarterback. Of course, Achane is also a factor as a pass-catcher, too, and it’s no secret that the Tampa Bay linebackers are liabilities in coverage.

The biggest key for the Miami defense is to rattle Mayfield, especially up the middle. Second-year center Graham Barton has been a weak link as the anchor of the Buccaneer offensive line, though it hasn’t helped him that he’s playing next to Dan Feeney and Mike Jordan rather than Cody Mauch and Ben Bredeson. If the interior of the Dolphins’ defensive line, led by Zach Sieler (5.5 sacks), can disrupt the quarterback up the middle, we’ve seen what that can do to the Buccaneer passing game. That could be a significant factor on Sunday.

Dolphins LB Jordyn Brooks – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Ken Blaze

The other deciding factor for Miami on defense is whether it can show any resistance against the run. The Dolphins have a pair of very good linebackers in Jordyn Brooks and Tyrel Dodson, but this is still a unit allowing 130.3 rushing yards per game. If Tampa Bay can create chunk run after chunk run, it’ll spell trouble in this one for Anthony Weaver‘s defense.

How about an intangible for the Dolphins, too? While the Bucs need to play with some urgency and take the fight to their opponents for once, the Dolphins will be looking to show that they still have some fight left. Mike McDaniel‘s future as Miami’s head coach is uncertain, and whether he still has the support of the locker room could play a role in this game considering the lack of stakes for the home team. Last week’s blowout loss didn’t look good, and if there’s another one on Sunday, it could really ramp up the heat and signal the end for on McDaniel and his staff.

Key Players To Watch

We’ve talked about the Dolphins run defense, and we alluded to the fact that Rachaad White has been more effective than Bucky Irving in recent weeks. But it’s clear that Irving is still the lead back in Tampa Bay, and he’s going to have to play like it on Sunday if the Bucs offense is going to be at its best. White is averaging 6.8 yards per carry over the last four games, with long runs of 20 and 39 yards at different points. Irving, meanwhile, has yet to average more than 4 yards per carry in any of the four games since his return to action. It’s time for that to change.

Bucs OLB Lavonte David – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Sunday could be an emotional day for Lavonte David. His career very well might be over within a few weeks should he decide to retire after 14 stellar NFL seasons, and this game comes back home in Miami, which could serve as a very special, full-circle moment for him. His play has dropped off in 2025 at age 35 – there’s no denying it – but you still see the flashes from time to time of what has made him one of the best linebackers in the NFL for the last decade and a half. He’ll need some more of those flashes on Sunday against one of the league’s better running backs.

Speaking of that running back, De’Von Achane truly is the star of the show in Miami. He’s up to 1,267 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground this season, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. He’s also the Dolphins’ second-leading receiver with 64 catches for 459 yards (7.2 avg.) and four more touchdowns. The first-time Pro Bowler will need to be a factor on Sunday afternoon if the Dolphins are going to have a shot at upsetting the Bucs. He’ll certainly have a few chances to create some explosive plays, and he’ll have to take advantage of them.

There’s some talent on the Dolphins defense, especially at inside linebacker. There’s also Bradley Chubb and Minkah Fitzpatrick, but 30-year-old Zach Sieler is an underrated player worth keeping an eye on in this matchup specifically. That’s largely because of the problems Tampa Bay is having on the interior of its offensive line. The trio of Graham Barton, Dan Feeney and Mike Jordan will need to limit him, as Sieler’s 5.5 sacks are the second-most on Miami’s defense and his 29 pressures leave him behind only Chubb (42) and Jaelan Phillips (32), who was traded to Philadelphia at the deadline.