BUCS at FALCONS

WHEN: Thursday, October 3, 2024 | WHERE: Mercedes Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA) | KICKOFF: 8:15 p.m. ET | TV: Amazon Prime

PLAY-BY-PLAY: Al Michaels | ANALYST: Kirk Herbstreit | SIDELINE: Kaylee Hartung

RADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives

Game day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report staff to make its weekly game predictions and offer up our game preview of this week’s matchup. Let us know what you think in the article comments section and add your prediction, too.

Scott Reynolds: Bucs Win, Open Up A Lead In The NFC South

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

I realize I am in a two-game slump, picking the Bucs to beat the Broncos in Week 3 and picking Tampa Bay to lose to Philadelphia last week. I’m happy to take the “L” last week as the team moved to 3-1. I am picking the Bucs to beat the Falcons, so if they lose blame the players and coaches – not me. The reason I’m picking Tampa Bay is I’m not buying into the Atlanta hype this year. Kirk Cousins is 36 and still looks uncomfortable with his surgically-repaired Achilles tendon. He wasn’t mobile to begin with, but now he’s a statue.

Without center Drew Dalman I expect Vita Vea to have another big game in the interior trenches. I’m not sure if the Bucs will get six sacks again, but they should get to Cousins a few times. Atlanta has only surrendered four sacks this year, but that’s mostly because Cousins gets rid of the ball so quickly with a healthy dose of short passes. Rookie offensive coordinator Zac Robinson is going through some growing pains just like Dave Canales did last year in Tampa Bay. The Bucs need to play press man on the outside in Cover 1 or Cover 3 looks. Cousins plays better against Cover 2 and quarters coverages.

Offensively, the Bucs offensive line needs to be physical early and set the tone at the line of scrimmage. With Jessie Bates III and Justin Simmons patrolling the secondary, look for Tampa Bay to try to run the ball to either take advantage of Atlanta’s Cover 2 looks or force defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake to bring a safety down in the box to help stuff the run. If that happens it will free up either Mike Evans or Chris Godwin to take advantage of man coverage, and that should be a win for the Bucs.

REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 30, Falcons 20
REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 2-2

Matt Matera: Bucs Stifle The Falcons

Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Thursday night football games can be all over the place as teams have to play on a short week. In this case, while the Bucs are the ones traveling, it feels like they have an advantage over the Falcons as being a team that’s a little more put together at the moment. The offense found its rhythm on Sunday as the team looks to continue that momentum while the defense broke out with six sacks when it came to getting to the quarterback.

Let’s stick with the Bucs defense for a moment. This is a fantastic opportunity for the pass rush to pick up right where they left off. Having nose tackle Vita Vea back made all the difference in the world pushing the pocket back. This helped out the rest of the group and outside linebacker Yaya Diaby recorded his first sack of the year. Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins is a good player, but he’s also a statue in the pocket. Diaby is top five in pressures. If he continues that pace on Thursday, Cousins isn’t escaping like the other quarterbacks have. Atlanta hasn’t been able to run the ball well and didn’t score a touchdown last game. Tampa Bay’s defense can shut them down again.

I’m not expecting the Bucs offense to have as much success as they did on Sunday. Atlanta’s defense is a difficult challenge for the Bucs especially with their safeties in Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates III. Plus, add in edge rusher Matthew Judon and it gets that much tougher. Baker Mayfield will have to be at his best on Thursday and must continue his decisiveness with the football. The Bucs may not be able to go deep but Chris Godwin can find cracks in the defense anywhere and their might be more of a reliance on Rachaad White and Bucky Irving in the screen game and intermediate passes. Will Sterling Shepard be able to step up again for the Bucs? It might just be what they need again. Should the Bucs get another great outing from their defense, their offense can do enough to secure a road win and enjoy the extra days off.

MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 23, Falcons 17
MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 2-2

Bailey Adams: Bucs Prove They’re The Class Of The NFC South

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and OC Liam Coen – Photo by: USA Today

I picked the Bucs to beat the Eagles last week, but I didn’t see that type of win coming to fruition. It’s hard not to feel better about where this team is and where it’s headed after a performance like that, and I think this is a group that knows more about itself than the Falcons do right now. Despite being crowned as the new NFC South favorite this offseason, Atlanta is off to a 2-2 start and could legitimately be 1-3 or 0-4 right now given the way it has played in its first four games.

I’m loving what I’m seeing from new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, and outside of that weird Week 3 performance, Baker Mayfield is playing with a high level of confidence right now. I like his chances of going into Atlanta and putting together another impressive showing, thanks in large part to the fact that Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have been known to feast on the Falcons. Atlanta’s run defense has also been pretty porous so far this season, so I’m looking for the duo of Rachaad White and Bucky Irving to have a bit of a breakout after flashing some signs of potential early on this year.

And on the defensive side of the ball, I think the Bucs’ pass rush found something last week and it’ll be able to take advantage of some injuries along the Falcons’ offensive line. I like Yaya Diaby to lead that effort with a sack or two, and I believe in Todd Bowles’ ability to put together another phenomenal game plan to slow down the likes of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Kirk Cousins has four interceptions in four games, and I think the Bucs may just get a couple more on Thursday night and run that total to six. Give me Tampa Bay with a statement win, one that creates some separation in the division and proves who the class of the NFC South is.

ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 30, Falcons 20
ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 2-2

Josh Queipo: Bucs Become One Of NFC’s Best With Convincing Win

Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby – Photo by: USA Today

I thought the Bucs were going to be good this year. But I did not have the team potentially being “special” on my bingo card. I foresaw cornerback Zyon McCollum’s ascension into one of the best defensive backs in the NFL and paired with my positive outlook on Tykee Smith I projected the team’s secondary to be one of the best units on the team. And I am on record as saying I think that the 90th percentile outcome for Baker Mayfield is a top eight quarterback, but his 50th percentile outcome is more 16th to 20th. Well, he currently ranks 13th in EPA/drop back.

But I was wrong about Yaya Diaby. And that’s the lynchpin. He’s not as good as his pressure numbers would say he is (as in he’s not one of the five best pass rushers in the NFL), but his ceiling is higher than I previously thought it was. And so, the Bucs are just plain ol’ better than I thought they were going to be. That adds up to a better team than Atlanta, especially when the current version of Kirk Cousins is so much worse than I foresaw as well.

Cousins used to be one of the better intermediate-to-deep passers in the league. From 2020-2023 he completed 64% of his passes of 10+ air yards while averaging 11.0 yards per attempt and 1.5 big time throws for every turnover worthy play on such throws. This year those numbers are down to 51% completion percentage, 9.2 yards per attempt and zero big time throws to four turnover worthy plays. And Cousins is eschewing deep throws more now than ever, with his deep targeting rate at an almost career low of less than eight percent. If Tampa Bay brings a defensive gameplan on defense similar to the Lions game and Mayfield keeps his time to throw under 2.5 seconds this should be a convincing road win against a divisional foe.

QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 27, Falcons 14
QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 2-2

Adam Slivon: Bucs Show Up For Primetime, Beat Falcons On The Road

Bucs ILB Lavonte David – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs have to go to Atlanta on a short week to face the Falcons Thursday night. Coming off a convincing 33-16 win over the Eagles, the team’s arrow is trending back up more toward where they were before they played the Broncos. They have shown they have a high-scoring and better-functioning offense than last year, and Todd Bowles has shown continued improvements and has gotten the most out of a defensive unit ravaged by injuries. Facing the Dirty Birds, I believe these trends will continue.

Starting on offense, Baker Mayfield was dialed in on Sunday, feeding Mike Evans and Chris Godwin the ball early. Mayfield also spread the ball around to other playmakers, such as Trey Palmer and Sterling Shepard. The passing game was clicking, and even without Luke Goedeke, he avoided pressure by firing off the football quickly and trusting his reads. That led to success, and it also allowed the run game to have more success. The Falcons’ secondary is littered with talent – from A.J. Terrell, Jessie Bates III, and Justin Simmons – but so is the Bucs’ receiving room. If Atlanta turns to single coverage to defend all of the weapons Liam Coen will deploy creatively, it only gives them more of an advantage to put points up.

Defensively, it is a group that prevented Jalen Hurts from doing much of anything on offense. It was a product of not having his two best wide receivers, but the defense held up on their assignments and got home often, generating six sacks. Kirk Cousins has been more “Kohl’s Cash” than money throwing the football this season, with four touchdowns and interceptions. The Bucs have had his number recently, including last year’s season-opening win in Minnesota. Bijan Robinson is a very talented runner and the duo he forms with Tyler Allgeier is one of the best in the game. There should be plenty of opportunities to again dial up pressure and force Cousins into forcing the issue. Expect both teams to have juice in this divisional matchup, but the Bucs will continue their winning ways and pull off another road win.

SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 27, Falcons 20
SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 2-2