BUCS at FALCONS

WHEN: Sunday, December 10, 2023 | WHERE: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA) | KICKOFF: 1:00 p.m. ET | TV: CBS

PLAY-BY-PLAY: Spero Dedes | ANALYSTS: Adam Archuleta | SIDELINE: Aditi Kinkhabwala (Reporter)

RADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives

Game day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report staff to make its weekly game predictions and offer up our game preview of this week’s matchup. Let us know what you think in the article comments section and add your prediction, too.

Scott Reynolds: Bucs Fall Short In Atlanta, Division Title Hopes Fade

Falcons TE Kyle Pitts and Bucs ILB Devin White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Can the Bucs win? Sure. Should Tampa Bay win? Probably. But will Todd Bowles’ team prevail? I just don’t think so.

Why? Because Tampa Bay should have won at Houston earlier this year, and also at Indianapolis – and they didn’t. I believe that the Bucs have more talent on paper than the Falcons do, but it’s up to the coaches to get the most out of that talent and put the players in the best position to win. I don’t think head coach Todd Bowles and offensive coordinator Dave Canales have done that enough this year, and I don’t think they’re going to out-coach the Falcons. Not that Arthur Smith is the second coming of Don Shula, Bill Belichick or Andy Reid my any means.

Tampa Bay’s defense gets Lavonte David back, and he’ll start next to SirVocea Dennis at inside linebacker. While that’s a good thing, this Bucs defense has surrendered 39, 27 and 27 points in each of the team’s last three road games. And that’s not a good thing. Right tackle Kaleb McGary might not play, and center Drew Dahlman is banged up. That helps the Bucs, but this team didn’t face Bijan Robinson time, and he could be the difference-maker for the Falcons on the ground and through the air.

Offensively, the Bucs offensive line is doing a better job in the run game and Rachaad White has rushed for 100 yards and 84 yards in his last two outings. He only ran for 34 yards against Atlanta back in Week 7. The Falcons will be without defensive tackle Grady Jarrett this time around, and fellow defensive tackle David Onyemata might not play with an ankle injury. That could help the Bucs win the battle of the trenches, which they lost the last time they played the Falcons.

This will be another close game, and close games often come down to star players and smart coaching decisions. Will Antoine Winfield Jr. and Mike Evans continue to star for Tampa Bay to steal a much-needed road win? Or will Robinson and Pro Bowl safety Jessie Bates III make more plays that lead to a Falcons victory? Will Smith get the best of Bowles with a late play-call in the fourth quarter as he did with Kyle Pitts’ big catch-and-run to help Atlanta win on a field goal in Tampa Bay? My prediction below answers those questions.

REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Falcons 23, Bucs 20
REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 9-3

Matt Matera: Bucs Lose And The Season Is Over

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

This is a playoff game for the Bucs no matter how you look at it. A win puts them in first place in the NFC South, while a loss virtually puts them three games behind the Falcons, as they’d be two games back without having the tiebreaker. It’s round two against Atlanta, so how much will change from Tampa Bay’s first meeting this season?

Tampa Bay gets Lavonte David back, which is of ultra importance. Atlanta is going to want to run the ball, which it did efficiently in Week 7. What’s even worse for the Bucs is that this time they’ll have to deal with the very talented Bijan Robinson, who only received one rushing attempt last time.

The Bucs’ linebacker duo will be David and rookie SirVocea Dennis. When Dennis got the start against the Colts, they were able to run on him, but David wasn’t in that game. The Falcons were able to move the ball easily against the Bucs. Only Antoine Winfield Jr. was able to save the team with a couple of forced fumbles. The Bucs shouldn’t bank on getting as lucky in this game.

Chris Godwin has to get the ball in this game, right? Historically he has torched the Falcons, and considering all the drama surrounding him this week, it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if they made sure to go for him early.

We know Mike Evans can step up, it’s just a matter of who else can bring their best game as well. Godwin and Rachaad White are the likely candidates, and Baker Mayfield will need to as well. The Bucs every week find ways to make costly mistakes, I don’t see why they’ll correct them this week even with the season on the line.

MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Falcons 27,  Bucs 21
MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 8-4

Bailey Adams: Falcons Keep Bucs At Arm’s Length

Falcons QB Desmond Ridder – Photo by: USA Today

The Falcons aren’t an intimidating team. They’re 6-6 with some bad losses and some ugly wins, and their quarterback isn’t going to scare opposing defenses most weeks. If you can limit their rushing attack and prevent the likes of Drake London and Kyle Pitts from making explosive plays, there’s a win right there for the taking.

The problem is, that’s how the Falcons are looking at the Bucs, too. Tampa Bay is 5-7 with some bad losses and some ugly wins. Baker Mayfield is better than Desmond Ridder, but he still won’t strike fear into anyone most of the time. The Bucs rushing attack isn’t as good as the Falcons’, though, and stopping Mike Evans and Chris Godwin from making plays is a good recipe for a victory.

So, what gives? Unfortunately, the Bucs just haven’t proven that they possess the clutch factor this year. This game has the makings of one that will come down to the fourth quarter (like the Week 7 meeting did) and Tampa Bay hasn’t always made the plays it needs to make (nor has the team avoided the mistakes it needs to avoid) in order to win games late.

Winning must-win games in December is something well-coached teams do. I haven’t seen enough to be convinced that Tampa Bay is well-coached, and this team hasn’t shown any signs of winning consistently enough to make the run it needs to make over the season’s final month. I don’t know if the Falcons are that well-coached or clutch either, but they’ve already beaten the Bucs once and they’re at home on Sunday. I’ll give them the narrow edge.

As much as a win on Sunday would give the Bucs something to rally around — first place in the NFC South and back-to-back wins for the first time since Weeks 1 and 2 — I think the Falcons come out on top in this one. That means Tampa Bay’s division title three-peat hopes are effectively dead with four games to go, setting another transition in motion this offseason.

ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Falcons 24, Bucs 20
ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 7-5

Josh Queipo: Bucs Win Close Affair

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs are not a good team. Coaching deficiencies, an outdated defensive scheme and lack of high-end talent at a few key positions keep them oscillating between “kind of average” and “yeah, they’re bad.” But here’s the thing. The Falcons are very similar.

Better defensive scheme. Similar roster talent. Poor coaching. But here’s the difference. The Bucs have the better quarterback.

Say what you will about Baker Mayfield (and everyone has a lot to say about him), but he is far and away a better quarterback than Atlanta’s Desmond Ridder. And that will likely be the difference in this game. Atlanta’s passing attack is ninth worst in the NFL and the Bucs pass defense has improved recently.

When you combine those two things with the fact that I don’t think Ridder can match the career game he had against Tampa Bay earlier in the season (a game Atlanta barely won with a last second field goal) and I think the Bucs win a close affair by virtue of having the better player at the most important position.

It won’t be pretty. Expect a low-scoring affair with a lot of ugly football. But Atlanta is likely to be missing some key pieces including right tackle Kaleb McGary and defensive tackle David Onyemata. Onyemata was a difference-maker in the last matchup with six pressures and a key sack late in the game. Without him, and with the Bucs interior offensive line making small positive strides, that matchup should tilt more towards Tampa Bay. McGary’s absence could mean the Bucs edge room has more consistent success in getting to Ridder. These will be the wins at the margins that help the Bucs keep their playoff hopes alive for at least another week.

QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 19, Falcons 17
QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 8-4

Adam Slivon: Bucs Keep Things Interesting In Atlanta

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

When looking ahead at Sunday’s game, really anything can happen. After going back and forth about where I see the outcome of this NFC South showdown, a few thoughts came about.

One, a large point of emphasis is that the Bucs need to put points up on the scoreboard. That may seem obvious, but after scoring just 13 points against the Falcons in Week 7, they were fortunate that Desmond Ridder kept the game close by fumbling three times. To have success in accomplishing this, it is going to take red zone efficiency and getting into a rhythm early.

In this one, I expect a more well-rounded offensive attack with Rachaad White’s recent emergence on the ground paired with a potential breakout Chris Godwin game. Recent frustrations aside, Godwin has experienced plenty of success throughout his career against the Falcons. Oh, and the Bucs have this guy named Mike Evans who is still pretty good.

Secondly, and perhaps one of the biggest variables, is how the Bucs’ defense goes about stopping Bijan Robinson. You know, the dynamite, do-it-all rookie running back? Tampa Bay was fortunate to have largely avoided him the first time, but they will have their hands full on Sunday. It is going to take a collective defensive effort to limit Robinson, but if they can and force Desmond Ridder to make plays, the opportunity for takeaways is again there.

Lastly, this game comes down to who wants it more. Each head coach has a lot to prove and their respective futures with their organizations hang in the balance. With this being a high-stakes game, I see the Bucs rising to the occasion more so than the Falcons. Tampa Bay will be looking to exact revenge on the road, and when they are counted out, they usually find a way to win. It has not been pretty this season, but I do foresee them coming out of Atlanta with a close win to get them to 6-7 and remain in the playoff hunt in December.

SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 24, Falcons 17
SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 9-3