Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The Bucs had a bounce back win against the Eagles, 33-16, and improved to 3-1 on the season. Tampa Bay starts a two-game road trip within the NFC South starting on Thursday night in Atlanta to face the 2-2 Falcons in primetime before traveling to New Orleans (3-1) the following week.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

With a 3-1 record, the Bucs have given themselves some leeway in case this two-game road trip within the division doesn’t go as planned. Tampa Bay already has three wins within the conference and now it’s trying to claim its first victory in the NFC South this season. The Bucs are already battle-tested on the road, claiming an impressive win at Detroit in Week 2. Tampa Bay also won at Atlanta last year, so the team shouldn’t be affected too much by the crowd noise in primetime.

The Bucs shook off a terrible performance by both the offense and the defense against the Broncos with a resounding win against the Eagles last week. Now the goal is to achieve some consistency and play that way on a week-to-week basis, especially from an effort standpoint. Tampa Bay should be plenty motivated coming into Thursday night’s game with Atlanta being the preseason favorites to win the division by most national media pundits and even the sportsbooks in Las Vegas. The Bucs, who have won the last three NFC South titles, feel disrespected and will be looking to make a statement.

Baker Mayfield didn’t play that great against the Falcons in either game last year, even though both teams each won on the road and split the series 1-1. Mayfield needs to throw touchdowns and not interceptions if the Bucs are going to prevail. Todd Bowles’ defense needs to keep pressuring the quarterback like it did last week with six sacks. Winning the turnover battle and forcing Kirk Cousins into some mistakes will be key to victory.

What’s At Stake For The Falcons

Falcons QB Kirk Cousins – Photo by Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta needs to get its offense going. The Falcons improved to 2-2 on the year by beating the Saints in Atlanta, 26-24, but didn’t score any offensive touchdowns. The Falcons’ first touchdown came on special teams with a fumble recovery in the end zone from a muffed punt. The second score came from a pick-six from linebacker Troy Andersen. Kirk Cousins has thrown four touchdowns, but also four interceptions at the start of his career in Atlanta. And the Falcons only have one rushing score on the year.

Take away those two non-offensive touchdowns last week and the Falcons have only scored 61 points on offense in four games. That’s an average of just 15.3 points per game. New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has struggled to find his footing as a play-caller after coming over from the Los Angeles Rams where he learned from Sean McVay. The problem is that Robinson doesn’t have any play-calling experience at the NFL or college level – much like the Dave Canales situation in Tampa Bay last year. Not having starting center Drew Dalman and right tackle Kaleb McGary the last two weeks hasn’t helped.

Defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake’s unit has played well but needs to get more heat on opposing quarterbacks. Atlanta has only four sacks through four games, led by newcomer Matthew Judon and Grady Jarrett, who each have 1.5 sacks. The Falcons’ pass rush needs to improve. Stud safeties Jesse Bates and Justin Simmons each have an interception, as does Andersen, but the middle linebacker hurt his knee last week against the Saints and may not be available on Thursday night. Raheem Morris’ troops need to protect their home-field advantage as the Falcons are 1-2 in Atlanta this year.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay must stop Atlanta’s two-headed monster at running back with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Robinson leads the Falcons in rushing with 224 yards to Allgeier’s 166 yards, but Allgeier leads the team in rushing averaging 6.1 yards per carry to Robinson’s 4.1 yards per carry. The Falcons aren’t as committed to the run as much as they were under former head coach Arthur Smith, but they’ll look to achieve a balanced attack. The Bucs must prevent both backs from going off so the team’s pass rush can pin its ears back and rush the passer.

Todd Bowles is 2-0 against Kirk Cousins in the last two games – a win in Tampa Bay when Cousins was with the Vikings in 2020 and an opening-day victory in Minnesota last year. Cousins was limited to one touchdown and was sacked six times in 2020, also losing a fumble. Last year, Cousins threw a pair of touchdowns but was sacked twice, fumbled once and also threw an interception. Pressuring Cousins into mistakes will be a big key to victory.

Offensively, the Bucs need to have a balanced attack to wear down the Falcons defense. The one-two punch of Rachaad White and Bucky Irving has been impressive at times and needs to get going to make Baker Mayfield’s play-action passes even more effective. Tampa Bay’s offense needs to come out and play physically from the get-go and start fast. When the Bucs do that they are undefeated this year. The one time they didn’t and took the Broncos too lightly it cost them.

The Falcons Win If…

Falcons FS Jessie Bates III – Photo by: USA Today

Atlanta needs to win the turnover battle to have a chance to win. Tampa Bay is plus-2 in the turnover margin while Atlanta is minus-1. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has already thrown four interceptions on the season to go along with four touchdowns in addition to a pair of fumbles. Playing turnover-free football is going to be important for Cousins and the Falcons when playing against Todd Bowles and his opportunistic defense.

Atlanta’s offensive line could be without two starters in center Drew Dalman, who is on injured reserve, in addition to right tackle Kaleb McGary. The Bucs defensive front was able to take advantage of Philadelphia not having starting right tackle Lane Johnson in the game and Tampa Bay recorded a season-high six sacks. Keeping Cousins upright has to be paramount for Atlanta’s offense, and rookie play-caller Zac Robinson needs to be quick on the draw with adjustments. The Falcons offensive line has only allowed just four sacks this season so far.

Jimmy Lake’s defense needs to find ways to force takeaways. The Falcons have three interceptions but have yet to recover a fumble on defense. They’ve done a fair job against both the run and the pass, but Atlanta needs its big guns on defense – safeties Jessie Bates III and Justin Simmons and defensive linemen Grady Jarrett and Matthew Judon – to step up in primetime and deliver some big plays to slow down Tampa Bay’s high-powered offensive attack.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield vs. Falcons Safeties Jessie Bates III and Justin Simmons

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield was very complimentary at his Tuesday press conference of both of Atlanta’s safeties, Jessie Bates III and Justin Simmons, a newcomer who was added in free agency. Bates is the best safety in the NFC South not named Antoine Winfield Jr. and he led all safeties with a career-high six interceptions last year in his first season with the Falcons. He already has one this year – a game-clinching interception to beat Philadelphia – and has totaled 21 interceptions so far in his seven-year career.

Simmons is entering his ninth season in the league and has racked up 30 picks after playing in Denver. He already has one pick with Atlanta, which came against Patrick Mahomes in Week 3. Simmons is 30 and Bates is 27, and both are experienced veterans who have seen every sort of route and route combination that exists in football. It’s one thing to avoid one ball-hawking safety in the passing game, but now that the Falcons have two dangerous safeties it only increases the chances of quarterbacks throwing an interception.

Mayfield has only thrown two interceptions this season and didn’t throw one in Bates’ direction last year. Although he only completed 48.3% of his passes the last time he was in Atlanta, Mayfield avoided throwing interceptions and wound up tossing a pair of touchdowns, including one to tight end Cade Otton that was the game-winner in a come-from-behind, 29-25 victory.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs Cornerbacks vs. Falcons WR Drake London

Bucs CB Zyon McCollum and Falcons WR Drake London – Photo by: USA Today

Falcons receiver Drake London only has three 100-yard games in his three-year NFL career, but two of those have come against the Bucs. In fact, London’s first 100-yard game came in the final game of his rookie season when he had six catches for 120 yards (20 avg.) in Atlanta’s 30-17 Week 18 win. He was held to four catches for 35 yards earlier in his rookie campaign in his first-ever game against Tampa Bay.

After catching six passes for 54 yards versus the Bucs in a 16-13 win at Tampa Bay last year, London exploded for a career-high 10 catches for 172 yards (17.2 avg.) in a 29-25 loss at home. Despite being bigger cornerbacks, Zyon McCollum and Jamel Dean have struggled to contain the 6-foot-4, 213-pound London, who was Atlanta’s first-round pick in 2022. London has yet to find a groove downfield with new quarterback Kirk Cousins but does lead the Falcons with 20 catches and has 200 yards (10 avg.) and two touchdowns on the year so far. London’s longest gain this year has been just 19 yards.

McCollum has developed into one of the top cover corners this year. He picked off his first pass back in Week 2 and has locked down his opponents in all four games. Dean nearly had his first pick in two years last week against the Eagles and has had a good start to the year. The Bucs must also focus on slowing down speedy Darnell Mooney, whose 15-yard average is tops among Falcons receivers. But London has had big games against the Bucs before and McCollum and Dean need to prevent that from happening again on Thursday night.