Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The Bucs snapped a four-game losing streak with a convincing, 30-7 win at New York over a hapless, two-win Giants team after the bye week. Tampa Bay is now 5-6 and improved its playoff odds with the victory. Now it’s on to Carolina to play Dave Canales and a 3-8 Panthers team that has won two of its last three games and is showing improvement.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

The Bucs have made up some ground in the NFC South race with Atlanta losing its last two games and then Tampa Bay getting a win during the Falcons’ bye week. Tampa Bay is now 5-6 and trails 6-5 Atlanta by one game but needs to finish one win ahead of the Falcons because of the tiebreaker Raheem Morris’ team owns due to the season sweep of the Bucs. A win in Carolina on Sunday coupled with a Falcons loss to the Chargers would help the Bucs draw even closer.

Tampa Bay swept Carolina last year but each game was close. The Bucs beat the Panthers, 21-18, in Tampa Bay and then won the NFC South title with a 9-0 victory in Carolina in Week 18. That game was even closer than the score indicated as the Panthers defense dropped three first quarter interceptions and also had a fourth quarter touchdown called back due to a holding call. Antoine Winfield Jr. also prevented a touchdown by punching the ball out of D.J. Chark’s hands at the goal line.

The Bucs cannot take this Panthers team lightly. They are playing hard for Dave Canales right now and nearly beat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs at home last Sunday, tying the game at 27-27 before losing on a last-second field goal. In order for the Bucs to continue their playoff push, they need to do something they haven’t done since Week 2 – win back-to-back games. Tampa Bay started the season 2-0 but hasn’t posted consecutive wins since.

What’s At Stake For The Panthers

Panthers head coach Dave Canales – Photo by: USA Today

The Panthers started 0-2 and then benched quarterback Bryce Young, the first overall pick in 2023, in favor of veteran Andy Dalton. That move produced immediate dividends, but Dalton would go 1-5 and then miss a start due to a car wreck. Young was reinserted and produced a win against the Saints in his first action since his benching, then helped Carolina beat the New York Giants in Munich in overtime. The Panthers returned home last week and took the Chiefs down to the wire before losing in the final seconds.

The ever positive Dave Canales has his team playing inspired football right now. Carolina’s offense was clicking against a stout Kansas City defense and put up 27 points, including a last-minute touchdown and two-point conversion to tie the game near the end. Running back Chuba Hubbard is on pace for a 1,000-yard season and Young has three touchdown passes and only one interception in his last three starts. Due to its recent play, Carolina believes it can compete and win and will be giving maximum effort against Tampa Bay on Sunday.

The Panthers want to finish the season strong and are relying on a lot of rookies like wide receiver Xavier Legette, tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders, cornerback Chau Smith-Wade and linebacker Trevin Wallace to make plays. This is a young Carolina team on the rise and will continue to be dangerous as long as Hubbard runs well and Young continues to develop. Canales needs to get the Panthers fired up by telling his team how close it was to beating Tampa Bay twice last year, which should inspire some confidence in the huddle.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. and Panthers QB Bryce Young – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay needs to build off last week’s win that saw the offense getting back to scoring 30 points per game, and perhaps more importantly, the defense holding the Giants to seven points, which was the lowest opponent total of the year. Todd Bowles’ defense has not played well, particularly in coverage and the red zone, but held New York quarterback Tommy DeVito below 200 yards passing and forced a red zone takeaway. Carolina has a better offensive line, a better quarterback and a better running game than New York does, so Sunday will be a bigger challenge for Tampa Bay.

Offensively, the Bucs offensive line is playing dominant football right now and the Panthers are without two of their top defenders in defensive tackle Derrick Brown and linebacker Shaq Thompson, both of whom are on injured reserve. Carolina has struggled getting to the quarterback and have just 17 sacks on the season, but did record four sacks of Patrick Mahomes last week. The Bucs need to continue to be assertive in the running game and control the line of scrimmage. That wears down the defensive line and negates the ability to effectively rush the passer as a result.

Bowles needs to make sure he calls a good game in terms of clock management and timeout usage, especially if this one is close in the fourth quarter. And he needs to make sure his team does not get overconfident after last week’s blowout win and take a three-win Carolina team too lightly. If the Bucs come in with a “show up and win” mentality, they will lose against a Panthers team that is playing good football right now.

The Panthers Win If…

Bucs DT Calijah Kancey and Panthers QB Bryce Young – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Panthers end their four-game home stand (the Giants game was a home game in Munich, Germany) against the Bucs, and the home crowd should be fired up, especially after seeing Carolina play inspired football against Kansas City last week. Dave Canales’ squad is trying to build some momentum at the end of the year to enter the 2025 offseason on a high note. Better execution and winning the turnover battle will be key for a lesser talented team like the Panthers to pull off an upset of the Bucs in Carolina.

The key on offense will be for Canales to figure out how to handle Todd Bowles’ pressure packages and winning first down. A 100-yard game from running back Chuba Hubbard will go a long way towards victory and needs to average at least four yards per carry on first down. Quarterback Bryce Young must continue to look for big plays in the passing game with receivers Xavier Legette and former Buccaneer David Moore. Getting Adam Thielen back healthy is a big plus.

Carolina’s defense got after Patrick Mahomes last week and the pass rush must be cranked up again. The Panthers need to force Baker Mayfield into an interception – something that hasn’t happened in the last three games as Tampa Bay’s quarterback has become much more careful with the football. Slowing the Bucs’ running game down is easier said than done as it’s ranked in the Top 10 in the NFL.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs WR Mike Evans vs. Panthers CB Jaycee Horn

Bucs WR Mike Evans and Panthers CB Jaycee Horn – Photo by: USA Today

These two have battled each year since Jaycee Horn entered the league as Carolina’s first-round pick in 2021. At 6-foot-1, 200 pounds, Horn has the size to battle Evans, but Tampa Bay’s top receiver has gotten the better of the recent matchups. Evans has four 100-yard games against the Panthers, which is tied with Atlanta for the most against any other team. The only problem for Evans and the Bucs is that the last three 100-yard games he’s had versus Carolina have come at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.

Evans went off for seven catches for 162 yards, including a 75-yard catch-and-run touchdown in last year’s 21-18 win over the Panthers. But Horn played better in Carolina in Week 18, helping to limit Evans to just 22 yards on three catches. Horn also had three pass breakups in Tampa Bay’s 9-0 win in Charlotte and played better. But he’ll need to win this matchup in Carolina if the Panthers are going to have a chance of upsetting Tampa Bay.

Evans wants to extend his NFL record 1,000-yard season streak to 11 years, but the math isn’t on his side. He missed three games with a hamstring injury and caught five passes for 68 yards in his return to action last week. With 403 yards through Week 12, Evans needs to average 99.5 yards per game over the next six weeks to hit 1,000 yards. That’s a tall order, especially since Evans has not even had a 100-yard game yet. But given his history against Carolina it could be a big day for No. 13.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs Front 7 vs. Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard

Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby and Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Panthers opened some eyes with the contract extension for running back Chuba Hubbard. Carolina gave him a four-year, $33.2 million deal during the season as a show of faith to the team that the franchise wants to reward its stars. Hubbard is only 25 years old and is the engine that drives Dave Canales’ offense. The former fourth-round pick has 876 yards and seven touchdowns on the season and is averaging 4.9 yards per carry. He has three 100-yard games this season, including 153 yards in Munich against the Giants.

Hubbard only had one 100-yard game last year and that was in Tampa Bay, rushing for 104 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 4.7 yards per carry. He also fared well against the Bucs in the season finale last year in Carolina, rushing for 83 yards on 23 carries (3.6 avg.). If Tampa Bay is going to stave off an upset in Week 13 stopping Hubbard from going off.

The Bucs defense has struggled stopping the run this year, giving up seven 100-yard games on the ground, including 244 yards versus the Ravens on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay only allowed 75 yards rushing in New York and the front seven played well. It starts with the defensive line and then the linebackers and safeties in run support. The Bucs will need to hold Hubbard under 100 yards to prevail on Sunday.