BUCS at SAINTS

WHEN: Sunday, October 13, 2024 | WHERE: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans, LA) | KICKOFF: 1:00 p.m. ET | TV: FOX

PLAY-BY-PLAY: Adam Amin | ANALYST: Greg Olsen | SIDELINE: Pam Oliver

RADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives

Game day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report staff to make its weekly game predictions and offer up our game preview of this week’s matchup. Let us know what you think in the article comments section and add your prediction, too.

Scott Reynolds: Tampa Bay Gets Important Divisional Win In New Orleans

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs should win this game, right? Derek Carr is out and rookie Spencer Rattler, a fifth-round pick is getting his first NFL start versus Todd Bowles and the Tampa Bay defense. Didn’t we think that the Bucs would beat Bo Nix and the Broncos, too? Rattler is a talented quarterback, but he’s a fifth-round pick for a reason – not a first-rounder like Nix was. He has some inconsistency to his game, but he does have a live arm and he found Xavier Legette deep often at South Carolina last year. Rattler’s ability to push the ball down the field is why he’s starting over backup QB Jake Haener. The Saints’ vertical passing game needs big plays from Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave.

While the Bucs got some good news in that defensive tackle Calijah Kancey (calf) will make his 2024 debut against the Saints, as well as the return of right tackle Luke Goedeke (concussion), wide receiver Jalen McMillan (hamstring) and possibly the safety tandem of Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot) and Jordan Whitehead. But  center Graham Barton will be out with a hamstring injury, as will defensive back Christian Izien (groin/elbow) and wide receiver Trey Palmer (concussion). Running back Rachaad White (foot) will be a game-time decision. The Bucs just can’t seem to stay healthy this year, but they should have enough to beat the Saints – provided that Bowles and his defense can rattle Rattler and make him look like a rookie QB – and not a future NFL star.

Tampa Bay’s preparation wasn’t disrupted too much this week because the team evacuated Florida on Tuesday and then settled into a full week’s worth of practices at Tulane University in New Orleans. I expect the Bucs to have a lot to play for this week – thinking about all of their fans and Floridians who were affected by Hurricane Milton. This will be a low-scoring affair, as Dennis Allen always dials up some defenses that seem to stymie Tampa Bay’s offensive production, but a Chase McLaughlin field goal wins it in the end.

REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 23, Saints 20
REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 2-3

Matt Matera: Bucs Rebound With A Win On The Road

Bucs DT Logan Hall – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Given how the Bucs lost their last game, Tampa Bay can’t afford to put up another clunker defensively, especially going against rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler in his NFL debut. Based on comments made from co-defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers this week when he mentioned that they want to make the Saints one dimensional, I expect Todd Bowles to focus on stopping Alvin Kamara on the ground and pressuring Rattler often.

This is the third time the Bucs are facing a rookie quarterback this season in just six games. They had good results against Jayden Daniels in the season opener, but terrible results facing Bo Nix just two weeks later. The Bucs can’t let Rattler get comfortable in the pocket and find his rhythm. That means Bowles can’t use his soft zone coverage that allows quarterbacks to dink and dunk for long sustaining drives. They, of course, have to watch out for the deep threat of Rashid Shaheed, but it doesn’t mean they have to give up everything underneath.

While the Bucs have been able to win in New Orleans in their last two tries, it hasn’t always been the easiest. The Saints’ defense continues to be a problem that should make things difficult for the Bucs on offense. If Baker Mayfield continues to play at the high level he’s had this year, the Bucs will be okay. They’ll get Mike Evans involved early, though the Saints are the best in the league in red zone defense, so expect a lot of Chase McLaughlin for this game.

MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 20, Saints 17
MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 2-3

Bailey Adams: Bucs Bounce Back For An Emotional Win

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs should be 4-1 and heading into this game with a chance to really take control of the NFC South. But there’s no more dwelling on that, even though I just did. The team really needs a bounce-back win in a big divisional matchup with New Orleans, and I think Todd Bowles and Co. will get it. It’s been an unusual week for the team given its preparations and precautions ahead of Hurricane Milton, and due to that storm, it’s been an emotional week for the Tampa Bay area.

I like the Bucs to come out charged up and ready to win this one. Perhaps they’ll be aided in part by some big returns from their injured starters and the fact that the Saints are banged-up in their own right. Baker Mayfield and the offense are rolling (do we see a third opening-drive touchdown in three weeks?) and I think that unit will lead the way here.

The absence of Derek Carr and the debut of 2024 fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler throws an interesting wrinkle into this one. I think the Tampa Bay defense, especially if it gets the likes of Calijah Kancey and/or Antoine Winfield Jr. back, will largely be able to handle him. I also trust Todd Bowles to have the rookie confused back there. But the unknown of Rattler and the strong starts to the season for Alvin Kamara and Rashid Shaheed (not to mention the stingy New Orleans defense) could make this a tricky test. But I think the Bucs do enough and escape the Superdome with a key victory.

ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 27, Saints 20
ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 2-3

Josh Queipo: Bucs Put “Rookie QB” Narrative to Bed

Bucs DTs Calijah Kancey and Vita Vea – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Since 2019 when Todd Bowles joined the Bucs, they are 10-7 against rookie quarterbacks. But to hear fans tell it they are 0-100. That .588-win percentage is slightly better than the league average, but slightly behind the gap they hold over the league in all games since 2019. Tampa Bay will take another step forward in evening out that discrepancy on Sunday.

With Calijah Kancey back to join Vita Vea, Logan Hall and Greg Gaines, the Bucs run defense should be in proper shape to help stymie the base of the Saints offensive attack. Without a strong run game New Orleans will be forced to lean on an offensive line that was weak at tackle to begin the year, and with multiple injuries to the interior, it should be open season for the Bucs pass rush. Per Pro Football Focus, the Saints have the worst pass protection in the NFL. And while the Bucs pass rush is more average than above, Kancey’s return should help jolt it to a Top 12-ish level that will be more than sufficient to “rattle” the Saints rookie quarterback, Spencer Rattler.

The most interesting aspect of this game will be whether the Saints defense can keep the game close enough that high-impact, low-probability plays can turn the game on its head. And I think they can. New Orleans has a good back end to their defense highlighted by a strong cornerback trio in Marshon Lattimore, Paulson Adebo and Alontae Taylor. And with free agent pickup Chase Young playing at a high level, they should be able to get more pressure on Baker Mayfield than the Falcons did. But ultimately, the Bucs prevail in a close contest.

QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 20, Saints 13
QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 2-3

Adam Slivon: Bucs Play With Passion, Defeat Spencer Rattler-Led Saints

South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler – Photo by: USA Today

On various levels, Sunday’s game between the Bucs and the Saints is a lot different than what one could have predicted even a week ago. Tampa Bay had to leave town early and practice at Tulane University due to Hurricane Milton, throwing a wrench in their game preparation. By the sounds of it, the team has made the best out of the situation and will be playing for something bigger than football at Caesars Superdome. Coming off a brutal loss to the Falcons, they have all the motivation to come out and rebound.

They will be doing so facing rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler, who is making his first career NFL start with Derek Carr out with an oblique injury. While both sides are pretty banged-up, this is the most game-altering injury. Head coach Todd Bowles has had mixed results against rookie QBs, but Bowles has the personnel and defensive scheme to make his day difficult under center.

There is no doubt that this will be a well-fought game between divisional opponents. The Bucs’ offense has been able to put points up regularly and faces a Saints team that has cooled off since a blistering hot start. The key will be the defense holding the line and learning its lesson from last week. I predict Tampa Bay will come out firing and get back on track with a meaningful win on Sunday afternoon.

SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 27, Saints 17
SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 2-3