Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss, and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

Tampa Bay is now 5-2 after a humbling loss to the Lions in Detroit on Monday Night Football. So the Bucs need a bounce-back win to head into the bye week 6-2. Just as important is the fact that this is a divisional game, and a win would allow Tampa Bay to move to 2-0 and maintain its NFC South supremacy. New Orleans is 1-6, but usually keeps it close. The Saints might be undermanned in terms of talent, but Kellen Moore’s squad is feisty and scrappy and still has plenty of fight. The fact that the Saints and Bucs can’t stand each other could make this a closer game than some might expect.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

For the 5-2 Bucs, Sunday’s divisional matchup in New Orleans is more than just another NFC South game. It’s about bouncing back from a bad, 24-9 loss at Detroit on Monday night and remaining perfect in the division. Todd Bowles’ team can’t afford a letdown against a struggling 1-6 Saints squad that is desperate to salvage their season. The Bucs have a prime opportunity to put real distance between themselves and the rest of the NFC South while proving they can handle business against a wounded rival on the road.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

This game is also about identity. Tampa Bay’s offense has flashed potential, but consistency remains an issue, especially in the ground game. Baker Mayfield and the passing attack need to get back on track and deliver against a New Orleans defense that’s been leaky of late. And offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard needs to show more patience in the running game and offer up more carries to Rachaad White and Sean Tucker, who teamed up for just 11 totes last week.

Defensively, Bowles’ unit must rebound from a few breakdowns in Detroit and reestablish its dominance against a Saints offense that ranks 29th in scoring under new head coach and play-caller Kellen Moore, averaging just 17.9 points per game. A win in the Superdome would give Tampa Bay a commanding divisional edge and give the team a much-needed boost heading into the bye week. But a loss would raise serious questions about the Bucs’ staying power and leave the door cracked open for the rest of the NFC South.

What’s At Stake For The Saints

At 1-6, the Saints’ season is hanging by a thread, and Sunday’s home game against the 5-2 Buccaneers might be their last chance to inject any life into it. Kellen Moore’s squad has underachieved across the board – from a stagnant offense to a defense that’s lost its edge due to aging stars, who aren’t really stars anymore. Another loss could effectively end any realistic hopes of a turnaround. This isn’t just about staying alive in the NFC South standings; it’s about pride, direction, and perhaps the futures of several key figures in the organization.

Saints RB Alvin Kamara and Bucs DB Christian Izien – Photo by: USA Today

The Saints need to show some fight in front of their home crowd against a division rival. Spencer Rattler must finally find rhythm with his receivers, especially Chris Olave, and get this offense moving after weeks of frustration. Alvin Kamara has to be the spark – both as a runner and receiver – to help keep the Bucs’ defense honest. The Saints just lost their best lineman, center Erik McCoy, to injured reserve. So that might be easier said than done.

On defense, Brandon Staley’s unit doesn’t really have anything it can hang its hat on. But the Saints have to find a way to pressure Baker Mayfield and force some turnovers to give the offense short fields. Mayfield was rattled early in Detroit and had his worst game of the season as a result. A win wouldn’t fix everything, but it could change the tone in the locker room and restore a sense of belief. A loss, though, would all but bury the Saints’ 2025 hopes.

The Bucs Win If…

The 5-2 Buccaneers head to New Orleans in Week 8 looking to keep control of the NFC South and avoid a letdown against the struggling 1-6 Saints. For Tampa Bay’s offense, it starts with protecting the football and playing clean, efficient football – something Baker Mayfield has done well so far outside of the loss at Detroit on Monday night.

Bucs RB Sean Tucker – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs need to stay balanced, even if the run game remains inconsistent. Rachaad White doesn’t have to dominate, but establishing some rhythm on the ground will keep the Saints’ pass rush honest. And Sean Tucker needs more touches to help take some of the workload off White, who played 90% of the snaps last week. That will set up play-action shots to rookies Emeka Egbuka and Tez Johnson, who can exploit a New Orleans secondary that’s given up too many big plays this season.

On defense, Todd Bowles’ unit must pressure Spencer Rattler and force him into some mistakes. To make that happen, the defense must stop Alvin Kamara and Devin Neal on early downs and forcing Rattler into obvious passing situations so Bowles can bring the blitz. Tampa Bay’s front seven, led by Vita Vea and YaYa Diaby, needs to keep Rattler uncomfortable and but contained in the pocket without allowing him to scramble for first downs. The secondary must communicate well to avoid lapses against Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, both capable of flipping the field with their speed. If the Bucs can win the turnover battle and finish drives in the red zone, they’ll leave New Orleans with another divisional win.

The Saints Win If…

For the 1-6 Saints, Sunday’s divisional matchup against the 5-2 Buccaneers at the Superdome is all about survival. Quarterback Spencer Rattler must protect the football and push it downfield more consistently, which is something he’s struggled with in recent weeks. Getting Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed involved early could loosen up a Bucs defense that thrives on taking away the run.

Saints WR Rashid Shaheed, Bucs CB Jamel Dean – Photo by: USA Today

With Kendre Miller on injured reserve, Alvin Kamara needs to be a focal point both on the ground and through the air, providing Rattler with an outlet against Tampa Bay’s aggressive front seven led by Yaya Diaby, who has four sacks. Tampa Bay is on a roll with sacks and takeaways in recent weeks. New Orleans must protect Rattler, especially picking up Todd Bowles’ blitzes, and play error-free on offense.

Defensively, the Saints have to find an identity. New Orleans defense doesn’t do anything particularly well because of a lack of talent. The return of edge rusher Chase Young might help, as he had a sack last week. Stopping Rachaad White in the ground game and pressuring Baker Mayfield need to be the top two priorities for Brandon Staley. Carl Granderson has 4.5 sacks and needs to continue to bring the heat off the edge too. If the Saints can play disciplined football and finally win the turnover battle, they’ll have a shot to pull off an upset.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs WR Tez Johnson vs. Saints CB Kool-Aid McKinstry

This is a battle of high school teammates, as both Tez Johnson and Kool-Aid McKinstry played together at Pinson Valley High School in Birmingham, Alabama. Together with quarterback Bo Nix, Pinson Valley won a state championship in 2018. Now the two good friends will battle each other on Sunday, with McKinstry having more NFL experience due to the fact he was a second-round pick in last year’s draft.

Bucs WR Tez Johnson – Photo by: USA Today

But Johnson is quickly getting the hang of playing in the NFL. He’s had back-to-back games with a touchdown and is coming off his most productive game as a rookie with four catches for 58 yards at Detroit, including a nifty, catch-and-run 22-yard touchdown. Johnson has shown he can hurt defenses by gaining yards after the catch on underneath routes, or using his sneaky speed to go deep and get behind defenders.

McKinstry leads the Saints with two interceptions this year along with five pass breakups. But overall, McKinstry has struggled in coverage, allowing 353 yards through the air and four touchdowns. Both are the most allowed by a Saints defender this year. McKinstry needs to shut down the shifty Johnson on the outside and take away one of Baker Mayfield’s primary targets. But that might be easier said than done.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs DT Vita Vea vs. Saints Interior O-Line

It’s no surprise that Vita Vea was Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded Bucs defender in Detroit last week. He took advantage of a suspect Lions interior and finished with four tackles and three pressures. He needs to have another dominant performance up front in New Orleans on Sunday to suffocate the downtrodden Saints ground game and keep Alvin Kamara in check early.

Bucs DT Vita Vea and Saints QB Spencer Rattler – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Then Vea needs to come alive on passing downs against an underwhelming New Orleans interior. Pro Bowl center Erik McCoy just went on injured reserve with a biceps injury. Luke Fortner will replace him and Vea should able to win that matchup one-on-one and help collapse the pocket.

The Saints have upgraded their offensive tackle positions over the last few drafts first-rounders Taliese Fuaga and Kelvin Banks Jr. But the weakness of the offensive line is their guard play, as neither Trevor Penning nor Cesar Ruiz has proven to be anything more than average over the past couple of seasons. Vea should have his way with any of the three interior offensive linemen, especially in one-on-one situations.