It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ post-game 2-Point Conversion column with two big statements, two probing questions and two bold predictions. The Bucs were stunned in overtime in Cleveland, blowing a 17-10 lead and losing to the Browns, 23-17. Thanks to losses by Atlanta and New Orleans, Tampa Bay still has a slight lead in the NFC South division. A disappointing showing by the offense and poor clock management led to the loss as the Bucs fell to 5-6 on the season.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1: Poor Offense, Poor Clock Management Costs Bucs A Win

Bucs quarterback Tom Brady was 13-4 in overtime until Sunday’ inexplicable 23-17 overtime loss at Cleveland to a 3-7 Browns team. Why either he or head coach Todd Bowles didn’t call timeout on Tampa Bay’s final drive of regulation after a screen pass to Rachaad White netted just one yard is both head-scratching and mind-numbingly disappointing.

Brady has played 23 years in the league, has a C on his chest and has more fourth-quarter comebacks (43) and game-winning drives (55) than any quarterback in NFL history. With 32 seconds left in regulation and three timeouts, it was not unthinkable that Brady could’ve gotten the Bucs into Ryan Succop’s range to attempt a game-winning field goal.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

But when Bowles, who is standing right next to the side judge, didn’t call a timeout and let 17 precious seconds elapse before Brady hit Julio Jones with a 26-yard strike down to the Cleveland 48, the game was essentially heading to overtime. The Bucs finally used their first timeout with eight seconds left. That gave Tampa Bay enough time for just two more plays.

Had those 17 seconds not been wasted, the Bucs could’ve had four plays to work with – along with two more timeouts to burn. With Brady and the Bucs at the Browns’ 48-yard line with say, 25 seconds on the clock and two timeouts, I like Tampa Bay’s chances of winning the game.

But poor clock management by Bowles (and Brady) doomed the team’s chances for the quarterback’s 56th game-winning drive. Bowles speaks all the time about how the team practices situational football. Have the Bucs not practiced last-second drives and practiced when to use to timeouts?

Bad coaching. Bad football.

Speaking of bad coaching, offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich’s poor play selection proved costly down the stretch. After building a 17-10 lead late in the game, the Bucs saw four straight drives end in punts prior to the team’s last possession, which ended in a failed Hail Mary pass from Brady.

Three of those drives that ended in punts were three-and-outs.

Last 5 Bucs Drives In Regulation
3 plays, 4 yards – punt
6 plays, 25 yards – punt
3 plays, 7 yards – punt
3 plays, minus-10 yards – punt
4 plays, 27 yards – end of regulation

That’s a paltry 53 yards in 19 plays. Pathetically bad football for a team that just needed one more score – even a Succop field goal – to make it two-score game and essentially take away Nick Chubb and the threat of the Browns’ ground game. But Leftwich’s offense couldn’t muster up much of anything to add to Tampa Bay’s lead when it mattered the most.

Before Brady’s 26-yard pass to Jones on the final drive of regulation, he was 5-of-9 for 18 yards on the four previous drives, in addition to his 1-yard screen pass to White. Leftwich mixed in a couple of deep shots to Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Jones, but the passing game was a questionable mixture of deep throws or extremely shallow passes that went nowhere and didn’t further any drives.

Brady’s Final 11 Passes in Regulation
Godwin 1 yard
Godwin 2 yards
Godwin INC
Jones INC
Brate 9 yards
White 5 yards
Evans INC
Evans INC
White 1 yard
Jones 26 yards
Jones INC

Bucs OC Byron Leftwich – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs had 11 possessions in regulation and went three-and-out on six of them. Overtime wasn’t much better. Tampa Bay generated 18 yards on eight plays on one drive and 16 yards on five plays on its final drive.

I’ve already called for Leftwich to be fired a couple of time earlier in the season, and if it was going to happen this year, it would’ve happened either after the loss to the Ravens on Thursday night or during the bye week. Instead, the Bucs have stuck with him.

Remember, Bowles and Leftwich had the entire bye week to self-scout and prepare for the Browns. And all the team could muster was 17 points in essentially five quarters of play.

“We just didn’t score enough points,” Brady said. “Seventeen points isn’t gonna do it, and that’s basically what we’ve been doing all year. It’s like the same thing, you know? Had a chance. Give them a lot of credit. They made some real clutch plays. Fourth down completion for the touchdown was a great play. We had our chances, but we just didn’t make the plays and they did.”

STATEMENT 2: These Bucs Are Completely Beatable

If the Bucs somehow win the NFC South and earn an automatic playoff berth, they’ll likely be DOA (dead on arrival) in the postseason. The Bucs are now 5-6 after a putrid loss to a beatable Browns team. Tampa Bay has just one or two impressive wins this season and several unfathomable losses to go with them.

Of the Bucs’ five wins this year, one was an opening day victory against a very good Dallas team, one was against a fading Seahawks squad and then the other three came against teams with sub-.500 records. If today’s Bucs team played today’s Cowboys team 10 times, the Bucs would be lucky to win or two of those games.

Bucs Wins In 2022
Cowboys – 8-3
Saints – 4-8
Falcons – 5-7
Rams – 3-8
Seahawks – 6-5
Composite Record: 26-31 (.456)

Bucs Losses In 2022
Packers – 4-8
Chiefs – 9-2
Steelers – 3-7
Panthers – 4-8
Ravens – 7-4
Browns – 4-7
Composite Record: 31-36 (.462)

This is a Bucs team that is so inconsistent week to win and is going nowhere fast. With a chance to go on a three-game winning streak with a victory over the Browns coming off their bye week, Tampa Bay squandered that chance in Cleveland.

If the Bucs can’t generate more than 17 points per game (they’re averaging 18.2 points per game, which ranks 27th in the league), they’re just not going to beat better teams in the playoffs – even with Brady at the helm.

Right now, the Bucs just cannot reliably beat teams with worse records and weaker rosters. That’s the criteria of a bad football team.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1: Where Was Otton In Cleveland?

Bucs TE Cade Otton – Photo by: USA Today

As if Byron Leftwich’s play-calling wasn’t questionable enough, how did the Bucs offensive coordinator forget about one of the rising young stars on offense during the bye week?

Just three games ago, rookie tight end Cade Otton caught a game-winning touchdown pass to beat the Rams. He was targeted six times and caught five passes against Los Angeles and was the Bucs’ leading receiver with 68 yards.

Otton was also targeted three times against the Seahawks and caught all three passes for 35 yards in Germany. But Otton didn’t get a single target in Cleveland despite playing 36 plays (52%), which was one more snap than Cameron Brate played.

Brate was targeted five times on Sunday, but only caught two passes for 15 yards. I love Brate, but at age 31, he just doesn’t have the ability to separate or get yards after the catch. Why Brate got the third-most targets on Sunday and Otton didn’t get one pass thrown his way is just bad play-calling and poor offensive design.

Brate doesn’t have a catch of 20 yards or more this season among his 16 receptions. Otton has three gains of 20 yards or more among his 26 catches, including a 28-yard catch against the Rams and a 25-yard reception versus Seattle. Why Leftwich can’t see that Otton is the more viable weapon in the passing game is beyond me.

QUESTION 2: Do The Glazers Reach Out To Payton?

The Glazers have never fired a head coach after just one season since taking ownership of the franchise in 1995. Raheem Morris was given three years, as was Dirk Koetter, while Greg Schiano and Lovie Smith each lasted two years in Tampa Bay.

Former Saints HC Sean Payton – Photo by: USA Today

It will be interesting to see what transpires down the stretch with Todd Bowles and what his “magic number of wins” will be to avoid being replaced this offseason, especially if there is a chance for a significant upgrade with someone like Sean Payton. The former Saints head coach went 152-89 in 15 years in New Orleans (.631 win percentage). He won seven division titles, nine playoff games and Super Bowl XLIV in 2009.

According to CBS Sports, Payton is currently watching the situations with the Cardinals and the Chargers because of their stability at the quarterback position. And if the Cowboys have an early playoff exit and Jerry Jones wants to replace Mike McCarthy, Dallas could certainly have some interest in Payton. That could be mutual due to the fact that the Cowboys have Dak Prescott under contract.

The Bucs’ quarterback situation is murky in 2023, as Tom Brady’s contract expires and he will turn 46 next year. Only unproven Kyle Trask, a former second-round pick, is under contract in Tampa Bay.

But the Glazers have been known to swing for the fences with coaching hires, trading for Jon Gruden in 2002 and luring Bruce Arians out of retirement in 2019. It will be fascinating to see if the Glazers show interest in Payton and possibly make contact with him to gauge any interest if their belief in Bowles wanes down the stretch.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1: Bucs Will Lose To The Saints On MNF

Bucs RT Tristan Wirfs and Saints DE Cameron Jordan – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Things went from bad to worse in Cleveland as not only did the Bucs lose to the Browns in overtime, but they also lost right tackle Tristan Wirfs to a left leg injury. The All-Pro will miss multiple weeks, meaning he won’t be available for this week’s game against the Saints.

New Orleans has won four straight games at Raymond James Stadium, dating back to 2018. The Saints waxed the Bucs, 38-3, in 2020 and won, 9-0, last year. That loss to the Saints at Ray-Jay was the team’s lone defeat at home in 2021.

I don’t like the Josh Wells vs. Cameron Jordan matchup, do you?

PREDICTION 2: At 5-7, Heat Will Get Turned Up On Bowles

Todd Bowles’ defense isn’t the cause for concern in Tampa Bay. His unit held a Browns team that was averaging 24 points per game to just 10 points until the final 40 seconds of regulation on Sunday. It took a fourth-down touchdown pass and an amazing one-handed snag by tight end David Njoku to force overtime. Bowles’ unit had four sacks of Jacoby Brissett and held the Browns to just 5-of-17 (29.4%) on third downs.

But the Bucs’ lack of ability to create takeaways is still the problem on defense. Mike Edwards had the lone takeaway – a Hail Mary pick – and Carlton Davis III dropped an interception.

Tampa Bay’s underwhelming offense is the problem, as scoring just 17 points per game isn’t getting it done. But Bowles is the head coach, so the struggling offense is just as much his problem as it is Byron Leftwich’s. A loss to the 4-8 Saints could very well knock the Bucs out of first place in the NFC South next Monday night, and that would only turn the heat up on Bowles’ seat at One Buc Place.