The phrase about the “elephant in the room” is typically dedicated to one dramatic situation, but for the Bucs this offseason, there have been several elephants in the room. This included Mike Evans and whether or not he was staying in Tampa Bay or leaving via free agency. Then it was Lavonte David and whether or not he was retiring. Next up is deciding when to extend Baker Mayfield’s contract.

Yes, Tampa Bay’s gunslinger will be under center in 2026 for a very important season. What looms ahead puts the Bucs in a precarious position, though.

Mayfield is in the final season of his $100 million deal and will have a cap hit of $39 million this year. Mayfield’s best season came two years ago when completing 71.4 percent of his passes while recording 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns, coinciding with a 10-win record.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Although his 2025 numbers took a step back last season with a 63.2 completion percentage and 3,693 yards with 26 touchdowns and an 8-9 record that resulted in missing the playoffs, Mayfield has played well enough to where he’ll get earn money the following season – whether the Bucs like it or not.

Baker Mayfield Will Make A Lot More Money With His Next Contract

In an article written by Jeff Howe of The Athletic, he explains why Baker Mayfield is going to have a lot of money coming his way from either the Bucs or potentially another team. Here’s an excerpt from Howe about what Mayfield could make.

“As a way to measure the impact of such a salary: A contract worth $50 million annually in 2026 would consume 16.6 percent of the cap. That would have been the 12th highest among QBs in 2025, and 15th in both 2023, which was the first season in history with multiple quarterbacks earning north of $50 million, and 2024.

Mayfield knows this; he could attempt to begin negotiations with comparable percentages rather than a target dollar figure. Last season, 10 QBs had an average annual value equal to at least 18.6 percent of the cap, and there were nine such quarterbacks each year from 2022-24.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

“Mayfield, who turns 31 in April, was leading the MVP conversation in 2025 after the Bucs won six of their first eight games, including an impressive victory in Seattle against the eventual Super Bowl champions. He would be justified to ask for four years and $224 million or five years and $280 million, with at least half fully guaranteed. (Though since all future guaranteed money must be placed in escrow, cash would be a factor with the Buccaneers.)”

It’s also noted in the article that if Mayfield did become a free agent, he’d be the first player in NFL histroy to make over $50 million a season in a free agency signing.

And therein lies the dilemma for the Buccaneers.

What’s The Plan For Baker Mayfield? 

Does Tampa Bay want to commit long-term to Baker Mayfield coming off of an above average performance in 2025, yet a down season from where his numbers were in 2024? Probably not if it results this year in another run of the mill season where the Bucs don’t win double-digit games.

But, can offensive coordinator Zac Robinson get Mayfield and the offense back to the production that Liam Coen engineered in 2024, with Tampa Bay returning to the postseason with at least 10 wins? If the Bucs had a crystal ball and saw that happening, they’d be sprinting to get an extension done with Mayfield right now.

Instead, it’s become the quasi-roll of the dice. The Buccaneers are rooting for Mayfield to play well and win games, but the better he plays, the more the dollar amount goes up with each yard, each touchdown and each victory. Should Mayfield hit free agency, a bevy of teams will come flocking for him.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

This makes it feel like the best move is to franchise tag Mayfield next offseason when he turns 32 if he exceeds expectations. The Bucs have no other options at quarterback at the moment. They have the 15th overall pick in this year’s draft and have many more needs to fill than quarterback, especially on defense. Unless Tampa Bay tanks so much that the team winds up getting a top 10 pick, the best option is to keep Mayfield for another season.

Placing the franchise tag on him could ensure that he’s on the roster and that the team can still figure out an extension afterwards if an agreement cannot be reached prior to free agency in 2027. Moving on from Mayfield would be bold and unlikely to happen without a legitimate plan in place. Not having Mayfield or a legitimate starting quarterback on the roster in his place, would cause way more problems than any current roster issues that the Buccaneers face right now.

Check out the full story in The Athletic by clicking this link.