Despite losing three straight games and four out of their last five to drop from 5-1 to 6-5, the Bucs still held a narrow lead in the NFC South heading into Week 13, which fell on the final weekend of November. And with Tampa Bay’s recent success in Weeks 13-18 — a 10-2 record over the last two seasons between those weeks — Sunday felt like the start of “playoff mode” for Todd Bowles and Co.

The fact that the Bucs were hosting the 3-8 Cardinals while the Panthers had to host the NFC-leading, 9-2 Rams felt like an opportunity, as a Tampa Bay win and an expected Carolina loss would mean the four-time defending NFC South champions seeing their lead widen back to 1.5 games heading into December. But would it work out that way?

It wouldn’t.

While the Cardinals, as they’ve done all season, were proving to be a tough out in Tampa, the Panthers continued what has been one of the weirder, more up-and-down seasons in recent NFL history.

At Raymond James Stadium, a Tristan Wirfs receiving touchdown, a Bucky Irving rushing touchdown in his return to action and two takeaways for the Buccaneer defense proved to be enough to earn the team a hard-fought 20-17 win. But before the Bucs even finished off their victory, it became clear that they needed a win to simply hold off the Panthers from taking over first place in the NFC South.

Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs – Photo by: USA Today

That’s because in Charlotte, Dave Canales’ team upset visiting Los Angeles, 31-28. The Panthers forced three Rams turnovers, scored a defensive touchdown and got a three-touchdown day from Bryce Young as they got back above .500 at 7-6 heading into their bye week.

So, why has this Panthers season been so weird? Well, they have the highest of highs in the form of a 16-13 win at Lambeau Field over the Packers and Sunday’s win over the Rams. But they also have the lowest of lows, such as a 17-7 loss to the 2-10 Saints and blowout defeats at the hands of the Patriots (42-13) and Bills (40-7).

Nonetheless, Carolina has put a whole lot of pressure on Tampa Bay as it looks to win its fifth straight division title and remains a very real threat, especially considering the two teams meet twice over the final three weeks of the season. Week-to-week, you don’t know what you’re going to get from the Panthers. But they’re clearly capable of playing at a high level, and with the volatility of the Bucs, who knows what will happen in Weeks 16 and 18?

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and Panthers HC Dave Canales – Photo by: USA Today

Elsewhere in the NFC South, the pack continued to thin out. The Falcons lost to the Jets in embarrassing fashion, allowing a game-tying touchdown run to Tyrod Taylor with 1:53 to go before eventually losing on a 56-yard field goal by Nick Folk as time expired. With the loss, Atlanta dropped to 4-8 and lost the game it gained on Tampa Bay last week. Raheem Morris’ seat has to be hotter than ever now as his team sits three games back of the division lead heading into December.

And as much as they tried to put up a fight in Miami, the Saints couldn’t avoid their 10th loss. The Dolphins were up 16-0 at halftime and while the Saints scored to make it 19-17 with 1:17 left, their two-point conversion try turned into a disaster as Tyler Shough’s pass was intercepted and returned by Minkah Fitzpatrick for two points the other way. With that, New Orleans fell 21-17 and was officially eliminated from playoff contention.

With the Panthers on their bye week next weekend, a Bucs win would extend the gap in the NFC South to one full game. But if the Saints upset the Bucs, the Panthers would pull even atop the division. And there’s a fairly simple clinching scenario over the coming weeks for Tampa Bay. With wins in its next three games, the NFC South race is finished and the four-time defending champs become five-time defending champs.

NFC South Standings Through Week 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 7-5 (2-0 in NFC South)
Carolina Panthers – 7-6 (2-1 in NFC South) — 0.5 games back
Atlanta Falcons – 4-8 (1-3 in NFC South) — 3 games back
New Orleans Saints – 2-10 (1-2 in NFC South) — 5 games back

Upcoming Schedules for NFC South Contenders:

Bucs: vs. Saints (2-10), vs. Falcons (4-8), at Panthers (7-6), at Dolphins (5-7)
Panthers: BYE WEEK, at Saints (2-10), vs. Bucs (7-5), vs. Seahawks (9-3)
Falcons: vs. Seahawks (9-3), at Bucs (7-5), at Cardinals (3-9), vs. Rams (9-3)

The Panthers’ win over the Rams shook up the NFC playoff picture in a big way, as the Rams now no longer own the No. 1 seed. They still hold the NFC West lead over the Seahawks thanks to the head-to-head win, but they now sit in the No. 2 spot in the NFC. Seattle did beat Minnesota 26-0 in Week 13, drawing closer in the division race while maintaining its hold on the top Wild Card spot.

The Bears were beneficiaries of the Panthers’ win, too. Their 24-15 win over the Eagles on Black Friday combined with the Rams’ loss in Charlotte has them atop the NFC standings through 13 weeks. That’s right, the 9-3 Chicago Bears currently hold the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

With the loss, the Eagles dropped to 8-4 and now hold the No. 3 spot ahead of the Bucs, who are 7-5 and hold the No. 4 spot. The Packers beat the Lions on Thanksgiving and the 49ers took care of the Browns on Sunday, so they still hold the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds, respectively, behind the Seahawks.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

If the season ended right now, Tampa Bay would host Seattle on Wild Card Weekend, while the 49ers would play the Rams in Los Angeles and the Eagles would host the Packers in Philadelphia.

NFC Standings Through Week 13

1. Chicago Bears – 9-3 (best win percentage vs. NFC opponents tiebreaker over Rams)
2. Los Angeles Rams – 9-3 (head-to-head tiebreaker in the NFC West over the Seahawks)
3. Philadelphia Eagles – 8-4 
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 7-5
5. Seattle Seahawks – 9-3
6. Green Bay Packers – 8-3-1
7. San Francisco 49ers – 9-4

———- IN THE HUNT ———-

8. Detroit Lions – 7-5
9. Dallas Cowboys – 6-5-1
10. Carolina Panthers – 7-6