Welcome to SR’s Fab 5 – my weekly insider column on the Bucs that features five things that are on my mind. SR’s Fab 5 is now a quicker read, but still packs a punch. Enjoy!

FAB 1. The Number Of Super Bowl LV Bucs Will Dwindle

Part of the reason why the Bucs have been in contention for a third straight NFC South title this year is due to the talent in Tampa Bay and the number of players who have Super Bowl LV rings from the fabled 2020 season.

Including injured center Ryan Jensen, the Bucs have eight players who have played in at least one Pro Bowl on their 2023 roster. The number of Super Bowl LV champions is even larger, with a total of 15 Buccaneers still left on the roster.

Bucs ILB Devin White and OLB Shaq Barrett – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

OLB Shaquil Barrett
ILB Lavonte David
CB Carlton Davis III
CB Jamel Dean
WR Mike Evans
DT Will Gholston
WR Chris Godwin
C Ryan Jensen
OLB Anthony Nelson
LG Aaron Stinnie
LS Zach Triner
DT Vita Vea
ILB Devin White
FS Antoine Winfield Jr.
LT Tristan Wirfs

But that number is expected to dwindle in 2024. Dean, Nelson and Vea are under contract next year and will return, along with Wirfs, who will either have his contract extended or play on his fifth-year option.

Winfield Jr. will either return on the franchise tag or a contract extension, and the Bucs will surely have some interest in re-signing Evans, David and Triner if the price is right. Should those players return, that’s eight Buccaneers with Super Bowl experience on the 2024 roster.

But what about the other seven Bucs on the list?

Bucs LG Aaron Stinnie – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The team will not re-sign inside linebacker Devin White, who is scheduled to become a free agent. It’s hard to imagine Gholston returning at age 33 next year. I wouldn’t rule it out, but it would certainly be a last-minute depth signing like it was this year when Gholston was re-signed on the eve of training camp.

On Sunday, Stinnie will have started 13 games at left guard this season. He’s been slightly better than Matt Feiler, a free agent signing, but the Bucs could surely find a better starter. Stinnie might be re-signed for camp competition, but he’s not a lock to make the 2024 team.

Tampa Bay is also expected to move on from Jensen, who has struggled to return to health from a devastating knee injury from the 2022 training camp. He and the team restructured his deal this year to allow him to be a June 1 cap casualty.

The next three decisions – regarding Barrett, Davis and Godwin – will be the biggest for the Bucs’ brass in the offseason. The reason is because of the enormous payouts they are set to receive.

Barrett will turn 32 next fall and is a shell of his former self with just 4.5 sacks this season. While he’s still an above average player, he’s no longer worth his $17 million average salary. The Bucs will likely swallow the tough pill of his $26.668 million cap hit and cut him, even though that will accelerate $12.433 million of prorated money.

But Barrett will be off the Bucs’ books completely in 2025 with no dead cap money, and the Glazers can save $15 million in cash by not paying him his option bonus, which is due this offseason. If Barrett stays, he’ll have a $14.235 cap number in 2024, but Tampa Bay will also have a $29 million cap hit next year due to his option bonus money.

Bucs CB Carlton Davis III and Falcons WR Scotty Miller – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs will also have a big decision to make regarding Davis, who is set to have a massive, $20,517,334 cap hit next year. Davis is due $14 million in base salary and the Glazers might want to save that cash.

Davis just turned 27 in December and injuries have taken a toll on him throughout the years. He’s missed 16 starts over the last three years, including five this year, and cannot be relied upon to stay healthy. Even when he’s on the field, Davis is not an interceptor and his big plays are few and far between.

Zyon McCollum has proved to be a competent starter and has stayed healthy all season. He will likely team with Jamel Dean as starters next year, while the Bucs part ways with Davis. Cutting or trading Davis would leave the team with a cap hit of just over $14 million, but a net savings of $6.448 million in cleared cap room.

Godwin has a monster base salary of $18.5 million with a hefty $27.534 million cap charge in his contract year. It’s taken him a while, but Godwin looks to be rounding back into form, and is on the verge of another 1,000-yard season in Tampa Bay.
The Bucs could cut Godwin and actually save $1.148 million in cap space with a cap hit of $26.386 million in 2024, and the Glazers could save $18.5 million in cash. That seems unlikely as the team is better off with Godwin next year than without him.

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

What’s more likely is the fact that the Bucs keep Godwin and restructure $10 million of his 2024 base salary over the remaining year and three void years the receiver has on his current deal. Tampa Bay could save $7.5 million in cap room in 2024 by doing so, and give Godwin one more year to show what he could do before committing to a long-term extension in 2025 when Godwin turns 28. By doing so, Godwin’s dead cap hit in 2025 would rise from $18.8 million to $26.3 million – unless the team extended his contract and spread that money out over a new deal.

It seems likely that at least six Bucs from the Super Bowl LV team will be gone in the offseason as Tampa Bay looks to reload and add more new players for another eventual championship run. Before any of the potential salary cap moves involving Barrett, Davis or Godwin, the Bucs are set to have just over $47 million in cap room in 2024, according to OverTheCap.com

FAB 2. Tampa Bay Could Have A New Head Coach In 2024

It all comes down to this – if the Bucs lose in Carolina on Sunday, the team could very well jettison head coach Todd Bowles on Monday. In this scenario, Bowles would have back-to-back 8-9 seasons, but missing out on winning a second-straight NFC South title could trigger his dismissal due to a lack of progress.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles, OC Dave Canales and WRs coach Brad Idzik – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Even if the Bucs do beat the 2-14 Panthers and win the division yet again, Bowles might need to prove to the Glazers and general manager Jason Licht that he can win in the postseason and is capable of leading Tampa Bay to another Super Bowl. It might take Bowles winning a home playoff game to convince ownership after the Bucs lost at home to Dallas in the Wild Card round, 31-14, last January.

Two straight wins by Bowles in Carolina and in the first round of the playoffs would be a sign of progress and would likely solidify not only his return, but the return of offensive coordinator Dave Canales in 2024. The development of Canales, a bright, young offensive mind with the charisma and energy to become a head coach, actually helps Bowles’ cause for sticking around.

I talked about possible offensive-minded head coaching candidates who could replace Bowles if he’s fired in last week’s SR’s Fab 5, so I won’t repeat myself here. But one scenario that could play out is keeping Bowles in 2024 with Canales being a potential in-house candidate as an interim head coach if the team falters at the start of next season.

It’s unlikely that Canales hasn’t accomplished enough in one year as an NFL offensive coordinator to take over for Bowles outright this offseason. But the team may not want to let Canales get away so quickly with a house-cleaning this offseason.

With another year of seasoning as a play-caller and the team’s leader of the offensive coaching staff, Canales may wind up as Tampa Bay’s head coach eventually if Bowles gets off to a rocky start and the team begins 2024 in underwhelming fashion.

FAB 3. Bucs Will Draft A New Quarterback

Barring something unforeseen on Sunday in Carolina, chances are that Baker Mayfield will be back in Tampa Bay in 2024. If Todd Bowles remains the Bucs’ head coach next year, Mayfield will almost certainly return. Yet if a Bowles is replaced, a new head coach would have to sign on to wanting Mayfield under center in 2024.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

With 3,907 yards, 28 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions, Mayfield is having the best statistical season of his six-year NFL career after signing a one-year, prove-it deal worth $4 million with the Bucs this past offseason. Mayfield’s actual payout will be more than that, as he’s in line to hit some significant bonuses this season.

And he could wind up signing a Geno Smith-type contract in the offseason in the neighborhood of $75 million over three years.

But with Mayfield turning 29 in April and having a bit of an erratic career, Bucs general manager Jason Licht would be wise to invest in another quarterback in such a QB-heavy draft. I think that’s what Tampa Bay is planning to do, although not necessarily in the first round.

USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye are locks to be Top 10 picks, and LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Oregon’s Bo Nix, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. could all end up in the first round, too.

There will be a few Day 2 QBs selected as well, and depending on how they fare in postseason all-star games, the NFL Scouting Combine and pro days, that group could consist of Tulane’s Michael Pratt, South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler, Tennessee’s Joe Milton III, Notre Dame’s Sam Hartman, Washington State’s Cam Ward and Florida State’s Jordan Travis.

Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

Colorado’s Sheduer Sanders, Georgia’s Carson Beck and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy are currently leaning toward staying in college. Will Howard, Kansas State’s all-time leading TD passer, hit the transfer portal and recently committed to Ohio State instead of heading to the NFL as a Day 3 prospect.

Bucs backup quarterback Kyle Trask will be entering a contract year in 2024. While he has made some strides this year in training camp and the preseason, he has not shown any special qualities that lead the team to believe he can be an impact starter in the league.

So whether or not Mayfield returns in 2024, the Bucs will once again draft a quarterback. If Mayfield isn’t re-signed, it will likely be with a first-round pick. If Mayfield does sign a contract extension, Tampa Bay will aim to select a promising young signal caller as early as Day 2.

FAB 4. Tampa Bay Could Have As Many As 8 New Starters In 2024

The 2023 Bucs saw lots of young players step into starting roles due to the team’s salary cap restraints. Some of those players succeeded, and some wound up being placeholders for more new starters on the way in 2024 – either in free agency or the NFL Draft.

Because Tampa Bay is only 8-8 and is one game away from either winning the NFC South or going home for the year with a disappointing losing record, the Bucs need an infusion of talent to get the team over the hump and in position to win more games in 2024.

Bucs TE Cade Otton – Photo by: USA Today

It seems likely that Baker Mayfield is re-signed at quarterback and the odds of Mike Evans’ return in 2024 after a Pro Bowl season seem to have increased. Yet both are free agents, and the Bucs won’t use the franchise tag on either one.

So technically quarterback and wide receiver are two positions that could see new starters next year depending on if a new head coach wants Mayfield leading the team, and Evans’ asking price in free agency isn’t too exorbitant. Outside of QB and receiver, there are six starting spots that seem much more likely to have new faces in 2024.

Let’s take a look at the positions that could definitely use an upgrade in talent heading into next year.

Tight end

Cade Otton has stepped in as the team’s starter every game this season after splitting time with veteran Cam Brate last year as a rookie. After catching 42 passes for 391 yards (9.3 avg.) and two touchdowns last season, Otton has nearly identical stats with 45 receptions for 425 yards (9.4 avg.) and four TDs – despite more playing time.

Otton is who he is – a No. 2 tight end with above average ability, but not an ideal starter. His blocking in the run game still needs a lot of work, and Otton must get bigger and stronger in the coming offseason to improve in this area. His nine-yard receiving average does nothing to scare opposing defensive coordinators, and the Bucs need a more dangerous receiving threat with more speed and playmaking ability.

Georgia’s Brock Bowers would be ideal, but he’s likely a Top 15 pick. Texas’ Ja’Tavion Sanders and Kansas State’s Ben Sinnott could be Day 2 selections.

Left guard

Boston College G Christian Mahogany – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs have tried both Matt Feiler and Aaron Stinnie at left guard and the results have been below average. Feiler won’t be back next year, and the same could be said for Stinnie, who has had a few games where he’s shined as a run blocker, but has struggled in pass protection.

The Bucs have one promising guard in Cody Mauch, who was selected in the second round this season, and need to find one more. The NFL Draft has a few good Day 2 options at guard this year, including Boston College’s Christian Mahogany, Kansas State’s Cooper Beebe and Michigan’s Zak Zinter.

Miami’s Robert Hunt and Seattle’s Damien Lewis and Phil Haynes could be options in free agency depending on their price tags. Hunt could cash in big after a breakout year, while Lewis and Haynes would be cheaper options.

Center

Robert Hainsey is an average starter, but the Bucs have really had a drop off at the center position the last two years without Pro Bowler Ryan Jensen. Hainsey lacks Jensen’s power and aggressiveness in the run game, and the Bucs miss the way Jensen would look for work in the passing game and his tone-setting hits.

Bucs general manager Jason Licht has a knack for drafting quality offensive linemen, and the 2024 NFL Draft has some promising talent in Oregon’s Jackson Powers-Johnson, Georgia’s Sedrick Van Pran and West Virginia’s Zach Frazier, all of whom are Day 2 picks.

Or Tampa Bay could turn to free agency, where Denver’s Lloyd Cushenberry, Baltimore’s Sam Mustipher or Tennessee’s Aaron Brewer could be options.

Outside linebacker

UCLA EDGE Laiatu Latu Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs will likely part ways with Shaq Barrett this year, and former first-round pick Joe Tryon-Shoyinka just doesn’t make enough plays to warrant being a starter anymore. Tampa Bay has a promising young star in YaYa Diaby, who leads the team with 6.5 sacks, but must find another impact edge rusher in 2024.

UCLA’s Laiatu Latu is a Top 12 pick if he clears medical tests after a neck injury earlier in his career. He’s an alpha pass rusher. Penn State’s Chop Robinson, Florida State’s Jared Verse, Washington’s Bralen Trice and Alabama’s Dallas Turner are all likely first-round picks.

Jacksonville’s Josh Allen is a Pro Bowler and he’ll likely break the bank this offseason after a 16.5-sack season. The price tag for Carolina’s Brian Burns and the New York Jets’ Sam Huff will likely be in the same realm, but all three would be instant upgrades.

Inside linebacker

The Bucs are poised to move on from the inconsistent play of Devin White in free agency and have a few in-house options who could start at Mike linebacker in K.J. Britt or J.J. Russell. SirVocea Dennis is also a candidate, but he’s a better fit to eventually replace Lavonte David at Mo linebacker in Todd Bowles’ scheme. David could be back on a one-year deal at age 34 after another very good season, but the Bucs will likely need to add another promising linebacker this offseason.

If the Bucs turn to free agency, Baltimore’s Patrick Queen, Carolina’s Frankie Luvu, Tennessee’s Azeez Al-Shaair are potential good fits, depending on price. It’s a down year for linebackers in the draft, but Texas A&M’s Edgerrin Cooper and Clemson’s Jeremiah Trotter Jr. are likely Day 2 picks, while Texas’ Jaylan Ford is a mid-round option.

Strong safety

Former Bucs S Jordan Whitehead – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Free agent strong safety Ryan Neal was a huge disappointment this season, especially in coverage. His price tag was quite modest, but he won’t return in 2024. The Bucs will need to start another safety next to pending free agent Antoine Winfield Jr., who will either get a contract extension or the franchise tag this offseason.

Kaevon Merriweather is a developing talent, but has not shown the playmaking ability and consistency to be considered a starting-caliber replacement at this juncture of his career.

Jets strong safety Jordan Whitehead was well-liked in Tampa Bay and has been missed over the last two seasons. He could return if the price is right. In the draft, Miami’s Kamren Kinchens and Minnesota’s Tyler Nubin are Day 2 picks, while Alabama’s Malachi Moore is a Day 3 option.

FAB 5. Antoine Winfield Jr. Got Snubbed – Time To Kill Off The Pro Bowl

The Pro Bowl has become a joke. It’s an absolute joke.

It used to serve two purposes. First, to recognize the best NFL players each year with honor and distinction. And second, those players would gather and play a real, competitive football game in Hawaii at the end of the season in February. That’s no longer the case with the game devolving into a stupid flag football game and a skills competition.

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

I no longer watch the Pro Bowl because it’s not worth watching. The NFL just needs to pull the plug on the Pop Warner-esque flag football game and the skills competition and get a better voting process for the players because Bucs safety Antoine Winfield Jr. got absolutely snubbed in Pro Bowl voting this year.

Over the years, the NFL has diluted the voting process by making it a popularity contest by including fan votes, along with votes from NFL players and coaches. The most popular teams with the largest fan bases have a built-in advantage, of course, when it comes to the fan voting.

Smaller market teams like Tampa Bay are at a natural disadvantage as a result, especially when the Bucs were out of the national spotlight with Tom Brady’s retirement back in January. Players with name recognition have a decided advantage with coaches and players around the league, and that proved to be the case this year with Arizona’s Budda Baker getting a Pro Bowl nod over the more deserving Winfield.

Baker, a six-time Pro Bowler and 2x first-team All Pro, did not record a single meaningful statistic outside of 77 tackles for a bad Arizona team. Meanwhile Winfield had a season for the ages in Tampa Bay, which can click a division title with a win in Carolina on Sunday. Keep in mind that Baker only played in 11 games whiles Winfield has played in every one this season.

At midseason I was fearful that Winfield would get snubbed for the Pro Bowl because he had every stat box checked except interceptions, but he wound up recording three picks down the stretch.

Perhaps part of the problem for Winfield was the fact that in the Bucs’ two prime time games he didn’t have the one-man-gang-type of performance he had in other games. He had 11 tackles versus the Eagles, but no sacks of takeaways. Against Buffalo, Winfield had just four tackles and a pass break up that led to an interception by defensive tackle Will Gholston.

Bills QB Josh Allen and Bucs S Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

Even in a couple of matinee games in the 4:00 p.m. ET window, Winfield managed only four tackles against the Lions and had three tackles against the Jaguars to go along with a sack and a fumble recovery. But by Christmas Eve it was probably too little too late for Winfield to have the win over Jacksonville account for much.

The NFL needs to blow up the Pro Bowl and start over with a better voting process, or just kill it outright. Without the game itself, the Pro Bowl no longer serves a real purpose other than when it comes time for contracts for the players and making the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Then it matters, unfortunately.

Let’s hope the NFL does the right thing and makes up for Winfield’s egregious snub by making him a first-team All-Pro.