INTRO: I know this is the third straight SR’s Fab 5 that leads off with offensive coordinator Liam Coen, but right now his future in Tampa Bay is top of mind amongst Bucs fans. I’m just giving the Pewter People what they want. I’ve also got some insight on outside linebacker Yaya Diaby’s lack of sacks, safety Antoine Winfield Jr.’s disappointing year, the need for wide receiver Jalen McMillan to hit the weight room and wide receiver Trey Palmer’s future in Tampa Bay in the last SR’s Fab 5 of 2024. Enjoy!

FAB 1. The 2 Teams That Are Bucs’ Biggest Threat For Liam Coen

As the Bucs’ 2024 season draws to a close, fans are increasingly on edge about two main issues.

First is Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes, which took a big hit with an untimely loss at Dallas. Second is whether the Bucs will be able to keep offensive coordinator Liam Coen – one way or another.

Bucs GM Jason Licht, HC Todd Bowles and OC Liam Coen – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

One way would be increasing Coen’s salary and hoping that making him the highest-paid offensive coordinator (or close to it) would be enough to keep him from pursuing a head coaching opportunity elsewhere. Think about how Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has eschewed those opportunities over the past two seasons and stayed in Detroit, waiting for the best possible fit.

The other way would be if the team wanted to move on from Todd Bowles as head coach because the team failed to make the division or make the playoffs as a Wild Card team or underachieved and had a first-round exit from the postseason. We won’t know Bowles’ fate until the next two weeks now that the Bucs no longer control their own fate.

But here’s one possible scenario to ponder regarding Coen’s future. If Bowles is let go with the intention of promoting Coen it may not be an automatic decision where he wants to stay in Tampa Bay.

There could be two possible destinations that pop up that could have some appeal for Coen – if he’s even interested in being a head coach next year – that could serve as real competition for the Bucs.

The first is New England, where 38-year-old Jerod Mayo might be in over his head in his initial season as Bill Belichick’s replacement. The Patriots have regressed from 8-9 in 2022 to 4-13 last year in Belichick’s final season to 3-12 in Mayo’s first season as head coach.

Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer has said that Mayo could be on the hot seat after a bad loss to the Cardinals recently, and Bleacher Report has Mayo as one of the Top 10 coaches on the “warm seat,” as of December 20.

Here’s what Bleacher Report’s Brad Gagnon had to say.

8. Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots: There’s also been chatter here, and you never know where the patience level is considering how long they were spoiled in Foxborough. But this is an awful team on paper, though it’s still managed to win a few games while keeping young quarterback Drake Maye on the right track.

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Three teams have already fired their head coaches this year – New Orleans, Chicago and the New York Jets. All three had defensive-minded head coaches like Mayo is in New England. He served as the Patriots inside linebackers coach from 2019-23.

Coen was born and raised in Rhode Island and went on to play quarterback at UMass. He was a big Patriots fan having grown up in the New England region. And was an even bigger fan of Tom Brady. Having the chance to coach the team he followed in his childhood may be a big dream come true.

The fact that the Patriots already have a highly rated quarterback in the fold with first-round pick Drake Maye might also add to the appeal. Maye is a mobile passer with a 67.6% completion percentage with 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions during the 11 games he’s played in as a rookie.

While New England really lacks talent and is in the running for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, the Patriots are set to have $132.5 million in salary cap room next year, which will be the most in the league. Owner Robert Kraft may want to jump on a league-wide trend of hiring offensive-minded head coaches and make a run at pairing Coen with Maye.

The other team that could emerge as a threat to the Bucs is the Las Vegas Raiders. Coen’s favorite player in the NFL was Tom Brady, who is now a minority owner of the Raiders franchise. Las Vegas made a mistake in hiring interim head coach Antonio Pierce as the full-time head coach this year and the results have been disastrous.

After replacing Josh McDaniels and going 5-4, Pierce’s Raiders have slumped to a 3-12 record in his first full season as a head coach. Part of the problem has been under center where neither Gardner Minshew nor Aidan O’Connell looks like the QB of the future. The Raiders are 29th in scoring, averaging just 17.6 points per game, and are expected to draft a quarterback in the Top 5 of the 2025 NFL Draft.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The allure of drafting a quarterback plus having the second-most available cap space at $108.2 million could be tempting for Coen. And it may come with slightly less pressure than returning home to the New England area to take over the Patriots.

Pierce, who is also a defensive-minded head coach, is No. 5 on the Bleacher Report hot seat list. This is what David Gagnon had to say about the situation in Las Vegas.

5. Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders: He was still working in an interim role when he lit a fire under the Raiders late in 2023, but that’s all gone in 2024. Pierce deserves one more shot simply because of the bad quarterback hand he’s been dealt as well as the injuries that have hit the defense, but the Raiders front office might feel compelled to start afresh.

The real lure here could be a potential sales pitch by Brady to Coen. The two have met before a pair of Bucs games that Brady has called for Fox this year. Of course Tampa Bay is one of two teams Brady has a rooting interest in because he played in red and pewter from 2020-22 and helped the Bucs win Super Bowl LV.

The chance to work with Brady and be in his orbit, especially in the offseason when Brady isn’t calling games, could be a huge appeal. Brady called the Bucs’ 33-16 win over the Eagles in Week 4 as well as the team’s 23-20 Week 10 loss to the 49ers when Coen didn’t have top weapons Mike Evans or Chris Godwin at his disposal.

“I thought he did an awesome job today, really eliminating the impact of that defensive front,” Brady said to Baker Mayfield in a post-game interview back in Week 4.

On Thursday I asked Coen about meeting Brady twice prior to kickoff this season.

Bucs OC Liam Coen and Tom Brady – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

“[Buccaneers chief communications officer] Nelson [Luis] gave me one of the best gifts I’ve ever had, which was a signed picture of [Brady] and I together,” Coen said. “That means more to me than he probably knows. Just listening to somebody’s experiences and learning from him – even in those short conversations, you can learn so much just from the way he attacks things, the way he approaches the game, how he sees things…You can learn from anybody.

“It’s like talking to another coach, essentially. Yeah, I love having those conversations from a fan [perspective] but also from a coach [perspective] and trying to gather information as much as possible. [He has been] super supportive so far and really wants to see us do as well as possible.”

Whether it’s as a fan of the team due to his three years in Tampa Bay or his possible interest in Coen as a potential Raiders head coaching candidate, Brady has definitely kept tabs on the Bucs’ play-caller this year.

“Yeah, that is pretty cool,” Coen said. “You always want to put the best product out on the field, for sure. To have somebody that, obviously, you looked up to as a kid, acknowledge that work, I guess you could say, and appreciate kind of what we’re doing…That’s pretty cool.”

Of course, Coen has a great thing going in Tampa Bay with Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, a talented offensive line and a running back stable that’s the envy of the league. There are plenty of great reasons to stay with the Bucs given the success the team has had in Coen’s first season as a play-caller, averaging 28.5 points per game.

But the Raiders and Patriots may prove to be tempting options if they fire their head coaches and pursue Coen, too.

FAB 2. Yaya Diaby Not Happy About Lack Of Sacks

It’s been a season of growth and improvement for second-year outside linebacker Yaya Diaby. But it’s also been a season of disappointment for last year’s leading sacker.

Diaby has improved in virtually every area of his game except for one category that matters most to pass rushers.

Sacks.

Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby and Ravens QB Lamar Jackson – Photo by: USA Today

“Earlier in the year I did let that get to me because I’m like, ‘Dang, I’m kind of doing everything right but it’s just not adding up,’” Diaby said. “I mean, I still got guys like Calijah [Kancey] and Vita [Vea] making plays off the pressure that I’m getting so it’s not a total loss. But at the end of the day, like you said, [sacks] are what get you paid. That’s just something you can look and grow from so that’s all it is.”

After posting 7.5 sacks last year – all of which came in the second half of his rookie campaign – Diaby has just 2.5 sacks heading into the final two games of the season, including half a sack in last week’s loss at Dallas. Diaby, last year’s third-round pick, only started the final nine games last year, including both playoff games, but he’s started all 15 games this season.

Last year Diaby had a 60.8 Pro Football Focus overall grade with a 66.5 run defense grade and a 45.5 tackling grade. Despite leading the team in sacks, Diaby had a 56 pass rush grade and notched 18 hurries and three QB hits, according to PFF.

This year, Diaby is one of the highest-graded Bucs defenders with a 77.1 overall grade, a 73.9 run defense grade and a 67.3 tackling grade. His pass rush grade has leaped to 76.6, which is the best among the Bucs’ front seven defenders. The 6-foot-3, 270-pound Hulk has a team-leading 42 pressures and 11 QB hits.

Diaby’s 42 hurries are tied for fifth among all NFL edge rushers and he has an 18.1% pass rush win rate, which is a far cry from last year’s 6.7%.

Panthers QB Bryce Young and Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby – Photo by: USA Today

Bucs co-defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers sees Diaby’s across-the-board improvement even though his sack numbers have dipped.

“Like you said, the numbers are up across the board and he’s the ultimate team player,” Rodgers said. “Anything you ask of him, he’s willing to do. In our system, at that position is not easy to learn.

“Sack numbers – I think I spoke toward this – sacks come in bunches. You can have this right here… You can have a four-sack game and everybody thinks you’re the greatest rusher in the world. Just keep working at it, just keep working at it. The thing you don’t see with him is his technique is improving. If he keeps working, keeps working, they’ll come.”

Diaby has made an impact with his pressures. He was right in the face of Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins as he threw the ball on fourth-and-15 back in Week 5 and forced an interception by linebacker Lavonte David. Then in Week 15, he had another pressure, which also led to a pick.

“[Against the Raiders] with the Tykee [Smith] interception,” Diaby said. “I came free and almost got to the quarterback. He threw it off his back foot and – interception. It’s little stuff like that I look at, ‘Damn, I’m just right there,’ but it’s still helping the team out.”

Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby and 49ers QB Brock Purdy – Photo by: USA Today

Despite not getting the sacks that everyone expected him to have this season, Diaby’s continued improvement has resulted in better play by the edge rusher dubbed Sub Zero.

“For sure, man,” Diaby said. “Especially these last few games, even with checking the analytics, my get-off has been super, super fast off the ball. I’ve been harping on that and understanding more of getting off and just having [offensive] tackles have to really come and get me. It’s just little stuff like that that I just got to keep watching film and keep learning.

“I feel great. Even these last three games I’ve been playing mostly the whole game just because I’m trying to help the team out the best way I can. I know me being on the field helps the team out.”

Of course, a few more sacks would help out even more.

And they’re coming – either at the end of this year or next year due to Diaby’s improvement.

FAB 3. Antoine Winfield Jr. Mired In The Worst Year Of His Bucs Career

Part of the reason why Todd Bowles’ defense has struggled at times has been the lack of availability of – and the lack of plays made by – Bucs safety Antoine Winfield Jr. It’s not necessarily Winfield’s fault for the defense’s shortcomings this year. He’s dealt with foot and knee injuries that have limited him to just nine games this season.

Bucs safety Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

But looking back to last year when Winfield donned the superhero cape in a Week 1 win at Minnesota and did not take it off all season as he became a first-team All-Pro, it’s clear that the defense has missed its superhero this year and all of the heroic plays he made.

No one expected Winfield to recapture last year’s glory – even as he signed a four-year contract extension that made him the league’s highest-paid defensive back. Posting career highs in tackles (122), sacks (six), forced fumbles (six), fumble recoveries (four), interceptions (three) and passes defensed (12) in 2023 was not going to be duplicated or topped in 2024.

But what Bucs general manager Jason Licht and Bowles hoped for, and perhaps expected, was for Winfield to at least deliver his career averages of 96 tackles, 3.5 sacks, three forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, two interceptions, six pass breakups and several touchdown-saving tackles.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t even come close to producing those numbers.

Instead through nine games, Winfield has 60 tackles, two sacks, no forced fumbles, a fumble recovery for a touchdown, no interceptions and just three pass breakups. Winfield is expected to miss Sunday’s game versus Carolina and may not be available for the season finale against New Orleans either.

49ers WR Ricky Pearsall and Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

“You’re probably talking about if we were sitting here this time last year, Winfield Jr. [was] probably the No. 1 player on our defense last year,” Bucs co-defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers said. “The playmaking ability – what did he have? Five, six sacks, caused fumbles, two game-saving touchdown plays I remember – so you lose that, and then when you get him back, he’s trying to get back up to speed and then we lose him again.

“[It’s] just tough because you’re right – the next man is up, but the next man is not necessarily Antoine Winfield Jr., so that’s the battle you have to [face]. Now you have an injury here, you have to rob Peter to pay Paul in so many ways and that’s kind of the juggling match we’re facing right now.”

Pro Football Focus’ player evaluations are subjective and not flawless. But in Winfield’s case, their grades do tell the tale of his five-year career in Tampa Bay.

2020: 67.2 overall grade / 85.4 run defense / 57.2 pass coverage
2021: 89.5 overall grade / 88.3 run defense / 87.6 pass coverage
2022: 78.7 overall grade / 89.4 run defense / 67.0 pass coverage
2023: 90.7 overall grade / 91.5 run defense / 84.0 pass coverage
2024: 56.8 overall grade / 73.2 run defense / 50.3 pass coverage

Winfield’s missed tackle rate of 9.5% isn’t bad comparatively, but it’s the highest it’s been in three years. He had a 3.5% missed tackle rate in 2022 and a 7.9% missed tackle rate last year, according to Pro Football Focus.

“Sometimes, kind of like baseball, you go into a slump,” Bucs co-defensive coordinator Larry Foote said last month. “Winfield – he hasn’t missed a lot of tackles, and it seems like he’s missed a majority of his tackles in one season than he did through all of his career. It’s tough. We’ve got to concentrate.”

For the first time in his NFL career, Winfield may not record a single interception this season.

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

“Playing the safety position, if the quarterback doesn’t throw you the ball, you might not get that many opportunities,” Foote said. “He doesn’t need to press. Everybody has [gone] through slumps in this league missing tackles, but Winfield will be just fine.

“I know you guys are used to the splash plays, so when they [are not] there, we sound the alarm. He’s doing a lot of good stuff for us. My glaring thing is he’s probably missed more tackles. He’ll fix that going down the road.”

Those fixes may have to come in 2025 if Winfield’s knee doesn’t cooperate and he’s unable to return for the season finale or perhaps the playoffs.

Last season may have been an anomaly with an avalanche of splash plays to fill the stats sheet. But this season has been an anomaly too with his lack of big plays.

Expect a bounce-back year from Winfield next season.

FAB 4. Jalen McMillan Needs To Hit The Weight Room In The Offseason

Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photo by: USA Today

The fourth-quarter interception by Dallas nickelback Jourdan Lewis wasn’t necessarily wide reciever Jalen McMillan’s fault. The Bucs rookie wide receiver nearly had his sixth touchdown catch of the season and nearly put the team back in front of the Cowboys.

But Lewis, an eight-year pro, just made a veteran play and ripped the ball out of McMillan’s hands for a huge end-zone interception.

The hope is that as McMillan grows into becoming an NFL veteran he will have the strength and experience to keep his grip on the ball and come away with a key touchdown there instead of being part of a key turnover. McMillan is listed at 6-foot-1, 192 pounds and has played at 195-196 pounds this season. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen would like to see the team’s third-round pick add about 10 pounds of muscle this offseason, and McMillan told Pewter Report he aims to get up to 198-200 pounds.

“Yeah, yeah, that’s kind of been a discussion since we drafted him – saying, ‘Hey, how do we get you to be as physically strong going into this thing?’” Coen said. “Knowing how long this season is, what it does, especially to rookies at a young age coming in [with] how long it is and how grueling these things are on these guys. [It will be a] big offseason project, for sure. He understands that – he’s echoed that. Not just because of that one play, just in general, I think it will help him moving forward, for sure.”

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

Successful receivers in the Rams-based attack that Coen has imported to Tampa Bay from Los Angeles are all over 200 pounds. Rams Pro Bowlers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are 6-foot-2, 212 pounds and 6-foot-2, 207 pounds, respectively.

Bucs Pro Bowlers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are 6-foot-5, 225 pounds and 6-foot-1, 209 pounds, respectively.

The hope is that McMillan, who has a wiry but muscular frame, can fill out more over the offseason and get closer to Godwin in terms of weight, muscle mass and strength. That should only make McMillan a better receiver and lead to more broken tackles and contested catches in 2025.

FAB 5. Bucs WR Trey Palmer In Danger Of Being Replaced In 2025

Sometimes it’s not what coaches say or don’t say in press conferences, but it’s the order of things that matter. When asked which receiver needs to step up alongside Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan with Sterling Shepard out with a hamstring injury, Bucs offensive coordinator immediately named Ryan Miller, who had a fourth-quarter touchdown in last week’s loss at Dallas.

Bucs WR Trey Palmer – Photo by: USA Today

“I think Ryan Miller will step up into one of those roles there,” Coen said. “Obviously, every time he’s called upon, has made some plays and plays hard and does what we ask him to do…He’s made some plays.”

The player he didn’t mention until later in the conversation was second-year wideout Trey Palmer, who was the Bucs’ third receiver on the depth chart last year as a rookie. Coen mentioned undrafted free agent rookie Kameron Johnson, who has been on injured reserve and has yet to really play much, and Rakim Jarrett before he got around to Palmer in Thursday’s press conference.

“You hope Kam Johnson continues to progress, hopefully,” Coen said. “Then, those other guys: ‘Rock’ (Rakim Jarrett) and Trey – Trey made a big catch on the over route later in the game. Really, the core needs to continue to step up and help Mike out in some ways, and they’ve done that. They’ve played better. We had a couple of balls hit our hands last week and didn’t make those plays, which we need to make.”

Lions CB Terrion Arnold and Bucs WR Trey Palmer – Photo by: USA Today

After catching 39 passes for 385 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie, Palmer has been an afterthought on offense this season, hauling in just 12 catches for 172 yards and a touchdown. There have been games where he’s been out-snapped by Jarrett and Miller, a pair of undrafted free agents from a year ago.

And he’s just about been out-performed by both. Jarrett has eight catches for 113 yards in just eight games, which is five fewer than Palmer, who also serves as Tampa Bay’s punt returner. Miller has 10 catches for 102 yards and two touchdowns in nine games.

Palmer doesn’t have the greatest downfield chemistry with quarterback Baker Mayfield. And with the Bucs expected to re-sign wide receiver Chris Godwin and draft another receiver for depth next year, Palmer could be the odd man out on Tampa Bay’s depth chart next season, especially if production continues to decline.