BUCS at BILLS
WHEN: Thursday, October 26, 2023 | WHERE: Highmark Stadium | KICKOFF: 8:15 p.m. ET | TV: Amazon Prime Video
PLAY-BY-PLAY: Al Michaels | ANALYST: Kirk Herbstreit | SIDELINE: Kaylee Hartung
RADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives
Game day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report staff to make its weekly game predictions and offer up our game preview of this week’s matchup. Let us know what you think in the article comments section and add your prediction, too.
Scott Reynolds: Bucs Offense Improves, But Not Enough To Beat Bills
Bills QB Josh Allen – Photo by: USA Today
There will be some signs of life for the Bucs on the road in Buffalo. Tampa Bay will finally get back to the 20-point mark after back-to-back weeks of scoring just six and 13 points. Interestingly enough, Dave Canales’ offense has scored the most points away from Raymond James Stadium this season, putting up 20 points in a Week 1 win at Minnesota and 26 points in a Week 3 victory at New Orleans. For some reason the Bucs have been better on the road – 2-0 – than they have been at home, where Tampa Bay is just 1-3. Granted, it’s been a small sample size so far, but it might give the Bucs a chance in Buffalo.
The Bills are the better team with the better offense and the better quarterback. The Bucs have a very good scoring defense that is super stingy in the red zone. But Josh Allen’s ability to scramble and score touchdowns with his legs will be the difference in this game. The last time he played against Tampa Bay in 2021 he ran for over 100 yards and a score. Atlanta’s Desmond Ridder hurt the Bucs defense last week, rushing for 38 yards and a touchdown on six carries (6.3 avg.).
Buffalo isn’t the same team it was last year when it was far more dominant. Yet the Bills have had some impressive blowout wins earlier in the season against the Raiders, 38-10, the Commanders, 37-3, and the Dolphins, 48-20. So they can turn on their offense and light up the scoreboard. But over the last three games they’ve struggled, losing to the Jaguars, 25-20, and last week to the Patriots, 29-25. They were also unimpressive in barely beating a bad Giants team at home, 14-9. So maybe the Bucs are catching them at the right time where their confidence is a bit shaken?
Getting an early lead is paramount for Tampa Bay if it has a chance to win. The slow starts on offense and defense are killing this team. The Bucs rarely play with a lead. Buffalo is tough to beat at home, especially on Thursday night. Tampa Bay has a puncher’s chance in this one due to its defense, but the Bucs would need to create a bunch of takeaways and the offense really has to click for an upset to occur. I just don’t see that happening.
REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bills 29, Bucs 20
REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 5-1
Matt Matera: Bucs Offensive Woes Continue In Close Loss
I believe that the Bucs on a good day can defeat the Bills. I believe that Tampa Bay’s defense can do more than enough to keep them in a game and win. But what I can’t put much confidence into is that this is the week where the offense puts it all together, especially because it’s a short week.
The Bucs and Bills each need this game. Tampa Bay has lost two in a row, looking ugly on offense in both defeats. The Bills barely surpassed the Giants at home two weeks ago and then lost on the road in a surprising loss to the Patriots. If you put the odds on who can figure their issues out quicker, it has to be the Bills.
We’re all aware of the Bucs’ problems. They have simply made poor decisions on offense, cannot run the football at all, and can’t execute in the red zone on offense. Not to mention it’s been a team effort in committing false start penalties, with both offensive linemen or wide receivers as the culprits.
Bucs ILBs Lavonte David and Devin White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
Maybe putting Aaron Stinnie in for the injured Matt Feiler can help the run game improve a bit, but if tight end Cade Otton still can’t block on the edge, and Robert Hainsey gets beat in the middle, there can only be so much improvement. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have been more involved in the passing game, and Rachaad White has emerged as a third passing option, but it all comes down to the consistency of Baker Mayfield.
The Bucs defense needs to apply the pressure on Bills quarterback Josh Allen, whether it’s through blitzing Antoine Winfield Jr. and Lavonte David or generating pressure up front with Calijah Kancey or the outside with Shaq Barrett. Ideally, the Bucs would love to get home with their front four and drop more back in coverage to force Allen to make a mistake. At times he will panic and try to still make a play even when there isn’t one to make. That’s forced him to turn the ball over quite a bit with seven interceptions on the season.
There’s tons of talent on the Bills, including wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Even if he’s slowed down, Allen can take off and run. We’ve seen the Bucs get close on sacks but sometimes not finish the job. The good news is that Barrett had a strip-sack last week and he tends to make big plays in bunches, so maybe it’s just the beginning for him.
Tampa Bay will need another huge effort from its defense in order to win. I just can’t see the offense holding up its end of the bargain as it’s another week of frustration. Maybe one more bad week will force the Bucs to find something different on that side of the ball.
MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Bills 17, Bucs 10
MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 4-2
Bailey Adams: Bills Send Bucs Off To Do Some Soul-Searching During Mini-Bye Week
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
This past Sunday’s game against the Falcons was so important for the Bucs not only for their positioning in the NFC South, but for the sake of their overall record heading into the month of November. A win over Atlanta would’ve had them at 4-2 heading into a short week with a tough Thursday Night Football road game against the Bills on the horizon. Instead, Tampa Bay lost and fell to 3-3 and is in danger of falling below .500 for the first time this year. And I think that’s what’ll happen.
The Bills have been a bit of a disappointment themselves this year. Josh Allen has a lot on his shoulders and the team has largely been up and down with some big blowout wins (Raiders, Commanders and Dolphins) and some bad losses (Jets and Patriots). There was also a Sunday Night Football game two weeks ago that Buffalo should’ve lost to the Giants, all things considered. But with both of these teams needing to bounce back and right their respective ships, I just think the Bills are more set up to do that.
Everything about this matchup screams a Bills win. They have the far better quarterback, as well as the better head coach. Buffalo’s offense is averaging 28.3 points per game, while the Bucs are scoring 17.2. The Tampa Bay defense is awful on third downs, and the Buffalo offense is converting them at a high rate. The Bills’ one big issue has been run defense, but the Buccaneers offense can’t run the ball whatsoever. There’s not much of a recipe for Tampa Bay to pull off the upset here.
The only real path I see is if Allen gives the ball away and spirals out of control, with the Bucs defense keeping the game close and low-scoring. Dave Canales’ offense has to improve at some point (you’d think), and a breakout game coupled with a good performance from Todd Bowles’ defense would send Tampa Bay to its mini-bye week at 4-3 with some momentum.
But I’m not willing to bet on that being the outcome, as the Bills are simply the better team. The Bucs lose their third straight, and it isn’t pretty.
ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bills 30, Bucs 17
ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 4-2
Josh Queipo: Bills Beat Bucs In Close, Low-Scoring Affair
Bucs RB Rachaad White and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today
The Bucs offense has been riding the struggle bus as of late, scoring fewer than 14 points in three of their last four games. Despite injuries ravaging their defense, the Bills have still been able to showcase some strong defensive performances throughout the season. While I don’t think the Bucs offense will continue to score less than two touchdowns, I still believe points will be at a premium for the Bucs.
The timing of the offense isn’t quite in rhythm, the run game is moribund, Baker Mayfield and his receivers are leaving big plays on the field, and penalties are continuing to be drive-killers. Thursday night should showcase some cautious growth, but ultimately, I foresee the Bucs offense struggle to eclipse the 20-point mark.
On the other side of the ball, one might think Bills quarterback Josh Allen has regressed this season due to a terrible opening night performance against the Jets on Sunday Night Football where Allen threw three back-breaking interceptions. While that was one of Allen’s worst games of his career, you’d be wrong about his season overall.
Since that mess of a game, he has straight-up been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, creating only three turnover-worthy plays in the last six games combined. Allen has been incredible for the most part this season and the Bills offense is averaging 28 points per game. Bills head coach Sean McDermott is an incredible leader and tactician who knows how to get his team ready on a short week. Buffalo is 4-0 on Thursday night games over the past five years.
The last time the Bills lost a Thursday night game was way back in 2017. With a better quarterback, a more consistent offense, and facing a Bucs team that could be be without stud defensive tackle Vita Vea, the Bills win this one at home in a closer affair than many might have otherwise thought.
QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Bills 21, Bucs 18
QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 4-2
Adam Slivon: Bucs Not Ready For Primetime, Fall Below .500
Bills QB Josh Allen and Bucs S Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: USA Today
Heading up to Buffalo, there are a lot of question marks surrounding the Bucs. Any team can win any given Sunday, or in this case, Thursday night. But with the way the team blew every chance at winning against the Falcons, where does this team really want to go and who do they want to be?
Antoine Winfield Jr. posed this exact question in the locker room after their last game to motivate the team, and it’s evident that by the way they have been playing as of now a repeat of last year in the standings looks to be in the cards. The Bucs have shown that they are good enough to beat the teams they should most of the time. But when it comes to top-tier contenders, they simply cannot hang.
Looking at the Bills game, I foresee it being a similar outcome to the Lions and Eagles games, but with a sprinkle of promise. With how poorly the offense has played, I see them drawing deeper into their playbook and letting Baker Mayfield rip it to keep them in it. Because of the notable injuries on the Bills’ defense, there is a recipe for the Bucs to score more than 20 points, which I see them being able to cook up.
Typically that would guarantee a Tampa Bay win, but not this week. For the turnovers that fellow 2018 draftee Josh Allen commits (nine through seven games), he is a true gunslinger and more than justifies his status as an elite quarterback. With that said, Allen should have no problem finding Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and rookie Dalton Kincaid with relative ease.
Last year, the Bucs scored 31 points against the Chiefs and 23 against the Bengals, which were two of their three highest-scoring games all season. Against AFC teams with top quarterbacks, the Bucs were able to keep themselves in the game and score more than expected. But as those matchups indicated then, they were just not able to keep up and are bound to suffer the same fate in Primetime.
SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Bills 31, Bucs 20
SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 4-2
