Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The 3-3 Bucs are coming off back-to-back home losses to the Lions and the Falcons in which the offense struggled to score points. The 4-3 Bills were upset on the road by the Patriots, 29-25, and have lost two out of the last three games.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

After a second straight year with a promising 2-0 start, the Bucs are sliding down to mediocrity again after losing three of their last four games, including a pair of losses in a row to the Lions and Falcons. Tampa Bay is 3-3 and is now in danger of sliding below .500 for the first time this season. Bucs fans are growing restless over the lack of progress from the offense and are souring on head coach Todd Bowles and offensive coordinator Dave Canales.

It’s a small sample size, but the Bucs are 2-0 on the road and 1-3 at home, which is a weird dynamic. Tampa Bay’s offense is averaging 23 points per game on the road and just 12.5 at home. So maybe hitting the road is what is needed to jump start the offensive attack.

Defensively, the Bucs have one of the best scoring defenses in the league, allowing just 17.3 points per game. Tampa Bay also has the league’s best red zone defense, but is last in the league in third down defense, as the team is allowing a woeful 50% conversion rate. Keeping the Bills out of the end zone and limiting them to field goals will be paramount if the Bucs hope to get the upset and win at Buffalo.

What’s At Stake For The Bills

Bills QB Josh Allen – Photo by: USA Today

Buffalo was predicted to be a Super Bowl contender in the AFC this year, but has underwhelmed. After losing a Week 1 overtime game at the New York Jets thanks to Josh Allen’s three interceptions, the Bills bounced back with three convincing wins against the Raiders (38-10), Commanders (37-3) and Dolphins (48-20). Then injuries hit and Buffalo lost some of its mojo. The Bills have lost two of their last three games, and their only win during that stretch was a lifeless 14-9 victory over a bad Giants team.

The Bills are 3-1 at home and 22-7 in Buffalo during the regular season since 2020. Highmark Stadium is a hostile environment for opposing teams, and Bills fans will be rowdy and in full throat for a prime time game on Thursday night. Buffalo’s confidence might be shaken after losing at New England to a bad Patriots team, but the woeful Bucs offense could be the perfect tonic for getting back on track.

Despite beating the Dolphins earlier in the year, the Bills trail them and are in second place in the division with a 1-2 record in the AFC East. Thursday’s game is not a division contest for either team, but with Miami having one more win and a 5-2 record, Buffalo has to keep pace with a victory versus Tampa Bay.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs won the turnover battle 3-2 last week and still lost to the Falcons, 16-13. It was the first time Tampa Bay lost a game despite winning the turnover margin. But any chance of winning at Buffalo on Thursday night surely has to come down to turnovers. The Bucs need more takeaways and probably have to play perfect on offense and not turn the ball over. Baker Mayfield has now thrown an interception in four straight games and that trend needs to stop.

The Bucs’ run game ranks 29th in the league, averaging just 77.8 yards per game. The Bills’ run defense is ranked 23rd in the league and is surrendering 128.3 yards per game. So if Tampa Bay’s offense was ever going to achieve balance and have more success on the ground, it looks like this would be the week to do it on paper. Rushing for 100 yards or more could be a key to victory – if the Bucs’ run game can gets its act together and find some consistency.

Tampa Bay is getting off to slow starts on offense and defense this year and has been outscored 23-13 in the first quarter. More importantly, the Bucs have been outscored on opening drives 17-3. In six opening drives the Bucs have scored only one field goal. Getting off to faster starts and actually getting an early lead would be a welcomed sight on Thursday night for Tampa Bay.

The Bills Win If…

Bills QB Josh Allen – Photo by: USA Today

Bills quarterback Josh Allen has thrown seven interceptions this season, and five of those picks have come in the team’s three losses this year. The Bucs have gone two straight games without an interception, and that’s a big reason why Lions quarterback Jared Goff and Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder both had success throwing the ball against Tampa Bay’s defense. If Allen can avoid turnovers and find the end zone with either touchdown passes or touchdown runs, the Bills could cruise to an easy win on Thursday night.

Allen and the Bills offense need receiver Gabe Davis to step up his play opposite Stefon Diggs. Over the last two games, Davis has been targeted nine times, but has just four catches for 27 yards and no touchdowns. Without veteran tight end Dawson Knox, whom Allen looks to in the red zone, Davis needs to pick up some of the slack. And Buffalo needs another big game from rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid, who had 75 yards in last week’s loss at New England.

Defensively, the Bills need to play better against the run. Linebacker Terrel Bernard has been picking up the slack since the loss of Matt Milano, but he needs some help. Buffalo’s defensive line does a good job rushing the passer, but needs to get after it in the run game and get some tackles for loss to get Tampa Bay’s offense off schedule and behind the sticks. Because there is little margin for error for the Bucs to win, a takeaway or two by Buffalo’s defense could be all it takes for a Bills victory.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs RB Rachaad White vs. Bills Rush Defense

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Rachaad White has topped 50 yards on the ground just twice this year – and that came in wins over the Bears (73) and the Saints (56). He proved to be even more effective as an outlet receiver than as a runner against the Falcons on Sunday, catching all six of his targets for 65 yards (10.8 avg.), while rushing for just 34 yards on 13 carries (2.6 avg.).

Tampa Bay’s 29th-ranked rushing attack may find more room to operate against a Buffalo defense that has struggled to stop the run over the last two years and ranks 23rd this season, allowing an average of 128 yards per game.

White’s main foe on Thursday night will be Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard, who is sixth in the NFL in tackles with 68 stops. Bernard, who is in his second season after entering the league as a third-round pick, is doing the heavy lifting in the middle of the defense with stud linebacker Matt Milano out due to injury. Bernard has two sacks, two pass breakups and three fumble recoveries on the year and is having a breakthrough season. He’ll be primarily responsible for tracking White down through the air or on the ground.

White needs to be more decisive as a runner and do a better job of quickly finding the holes and accelerating through them. The Bucs interior offensive line has struggled to get much push up front, and Bills defensive tackle Ed Oliver, a former first-round pick, is a big-time disruptor. Oliver leads the team with nine tackles for loss and has four sacks on the year.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs ILBs Devin White And Lavonte David vs. QB Josh Allen

Bucs ILB Devin White and Bills QB Josh Allen – Photo by: USA Today

The last time the Bucs played Josh Allen, he gashed Tampa Bay’s defense for over 100 yards rushing and a second-half touchdown, which helped force overtime back in 2021. Allen already has four rushing scores this year to go along with 15 passing touchdowns. As Allen goes, so goes the Buffalo offense.

He’ll look to leave the pocket and scramble when pressured. And when he does, the Bucs linebackers must do a better job of stopping Allen than they did against Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder last week, who had a 19-yard run and ran for 38 yards and a touchdown.

Lavonte David doesn’t have an interception this season and Devin White doesn’t have a sack. It would be the perfect time for that to change for both of the Bucs’ inside linebackers on Thursday night.

David has played lights-out football the last two games against Detroit and Atlanta. Meanwhile, White has been a non-factor in both of those games, especially against the Falcons where he notched just five tackles despite Atlanta running the ball 38 times for 156 yards. White, who is in a contract year, played rather soft against the Falcons and it wasn’t a good look. He needs to play with more intensity and toughness, and more importantly, make some splash plays, which have been noticeably absent this season.