Of the many issues that have faced the Bucs offense this year, one that is becoming increasingly apparent is the connection between quarterback Tom Brady and his “X” receiver Mike Evans. Head coach Todd Bowles was asked about this in his press conference on Monday.

“That’s a good question.” Bowles said. “Some of them were defensive calls. Some of them we just missed it here and there. We’ve got to get that fixed. We’ve got to get them back on the same page. That struggle, it showed up yesterday and it showed up a few games before that. We’ve got to get that taken care of. That’s crucial for our success.”

Bowles is right. Brady and Evans have not been on the same page, and it has been to the detriment of the Bucs offense over the past several weeks.

This has been quite an alarming development as prior to this season Brady had been a key of some sort, unlocking the high end of Evans’ potential. Over the course of Evans’ career up through 2019 (prior to Brady’s arrival), Evans catch percentage stood at 57.0%. In 2018 Evans logged a catch rate of 63.7%, which up until 2020 was the only season where he was north of 60%.

Then Brady arrived in Tampa Bay, and his accuracy and ability to throw with anticipation helped elevate Evans’ catch rate, allowing him to produce similar receptions on comparatively less targets. Over the past two seasons Evans has 144 catches on just 218 targets. This represents a catch percentage of 66.1%, just over nine full points better than Evans’ career to that point.

This season that number has fallen to 62.2%. Still miles ahead of his pre-Brady days, but a noticeable drop-off from his 2020-2021 level of performance. Diving deeper into the ether we find that to this point in the season there seems to be a noticeable dip in the Brady-to-Evans connection that happened at the halfway point of the season-to-date.

Bucs WR Mike Evans and QB Tom Brady – Photo by: USA Today

Due to a one-game suspension, Evans has played in 10 of the Bucs 11 games this season. Looking at Evans’ first five games his catch rate looked to be elevating once again. To that point in the season Evans had been targeted 33 times with 24 catches to show for it. That’s a catch rate of 72.7%! And these weren’t just high percentage short passes that were ballooning the catch rate. During this time period Evans was maintaining a 14.9 yards per catch average with a 3.5-yards after catch average.

These compared very favorably to Evans’ 2020-2021 marks of 14.2 yards per reception and 3.5-yards after catch average. His 13.3 average depth of target in those games also matched up identically to his 13.3 average in 2020-2021. There was no noticeable change in Evans’ usage that could reasonably explain the improvement in his catch rate. It just seemed like he and Brady were ascending to a new level of comfortability with each other.

Unfortunately, that has all come crashing down over the past five games. Since the Carolina game in Week 7, Brady has targeted Evans 49 times. They have connected for a catch on just 27 of those passes. That translates to a catch rate of just 55.1%. That catch rate would be lower than all but two of Evans’ seasons in the NFL (2015, 2017).

Looking back at some of those “under-the-hood” numbers and we see just about everything has gone in the wrong direction. Evans’ yards per reception has fallen to 12.7. His yards after catch average has dipped to 1.9. The only thing that has trended up is his average depth of target, which has climbed to 14.7. The difference between the 66% catch rate of the past two years and the 55% rate of the past five games over 49 targets is five catches. Looking through the tape there are quite a few missed connections that would have these two operating at a previously normal level.

Carolina – The Deep Post

As with any story there is usually an origin point. For this one we can trace things back to the first time Brady targeted Evans in Carolina.

With an opportunity to break the game wide open early in the first quarter, Evans runs through his defender like a freight train to get open on a deep post. Brady put the ball on him perfectly and Evans just bobbles it leading to a drop. The Bucs end up losing 21-3 so technically this potential touchdown doesn’t change the outcome of the game.

However, with it being so early, and it being such an egregious drop, you can’t help but think how the game could have gone so differently had this been completed. The Bucs gain some momentum, get out to an early lead, and force Carolina to throw more and rely less on a run game that ultimately broke things wide open in the second half.

Baltimore – Big Game Could Have Been Bigger

Evans finished this game with a statistically big game. Six catches for 123 yards is normally a huge night for any receiver. But Brady targeted Evans 11 times. And there were four incompletions that were completely out of character for the level of play these two have previously established.

It started on the Bucs’ first drive of the game.

Down near the goal line offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich dialed up a simple, but effective play-action call with Evans and Chris Godwin running dueling crossers. Brady has to simply turn, read the single high-safety and throw in the opposite direction. All of this goes off without a hitch, but Brady leads Evans a bit too much.

It wasn’t a great pass, as with all of the room available he could have laid it closer. It also is a catch Evans has made many times before. Both players failed on this rep. It ends up not being a huge deal as the Bucs score two plays later, but it was an uncharacteristically bad rep for these two.

On the next drive, though, the two would again miss in the end zone. And this one would hurt when looking back at the end of the game.

Julio Jones attacking the flat off of the motion helps hold the field corner underneath, allowing Evans to gain leverage on the safety for the corner. Brady lays the ball out for him and Evans just can’t reel it in. The Bucs would settle for a field goal on this drive. That gave them a 10-3 lead instead of a 14-3 lead. The difference between the touchdown and the field goal eventually becomes the difference in the game, where if they had converted, the game might go to overtime instead of the Bucs taking the “L.”

But wait, there’s more! Two drives later Evans sets up cornerback Marlon Humphrey for a potentially deep gain.

This one is a bit tough when you consider all of the context. Evans is lined up as the “X” by himself on the boundary side of a 3×1 look. He is not the primary read unless Brady recognizes that he will end up one-on-one. Evans is most likely working off of a choice route. If he gets the man coverage, combined with the jam that Humphrey gives him, his read would be to take the route vertical.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Evans makes the right read on this and goes for the deep fade. It doesn’t look like Brady catches that Evans will be solo initially because Baltimore gives a pre-snap look of two-high safeties. It isn’t until post-snap that they rotate down the boundary side safety giving Evans his single matchup.

After the snap it appears Brady is looking for Jones on the stop route, but before Jones can get to his spot Brady is forced to maneuver in the pocket due to pressure up the middle. It is at this point that Brady recognizes Evans’ advantageous position and tries to connect with him deep. However, now Brady has to make the throw from off-platform as he is running to his weak side and forward.

This results in an underthrown ball that allows Humphrey back into the play. The throw was not great, but it gave Evans a chance. Under the circumstances, with Brady not being an off-platform thrower by nature, it was about as good as Evans could hope for. Evans has to do a half inside rotation to try and make the catch, but the ball ends up in his gut. Again, much like the two clips before this, for a guy who many claim is a potential Top 10 receiver in the league it’s a catch you should expect him to make. And he doesn’t.

Finally, early in the fourth quarter the Bucs were once again driving in an attempt to tie the game at 17. On 2nd and 10 from the Baltimore 13 Brady tries to connect with Evans in the end zone.

In the Bucs offense subtlety and nuance are everything. And with Brady as the quarterback those two things get amplified to 10. It’s not just about being at your landmark when you are supposed to be. But there are finer things like how to break. That was on display on this play where Evans and Brady read the coverage differently, which led to a pass that wasn’t where the receiver expected it to be.

Evans stems at the top of his rout for a tight curl. Perhaps he thought Brady would throw back towards the outside allowing his large frame to box out the corner. From the location of Brady’s throw it is apparent he wanted Evans to break in sharply and use his frame to prevent the corner from driving down on the ball. The miscommunication led to an incomplete pass and eventually the Bucs have to settle for a field goal.

There were so many missed opportunities between the once symbiotic Brady-Evans connection that could have turned this loss into a win. Six catches for 123 yards is nice when you are box score watching. But looking at these four plays and you wonder if that could have been 10 catches for 199 yards and three touchdowns.

Cleveland – The Overtime Miss That Cost The Game

Coaching malpractice by Todd Bowles allowed Cleveland to tie this game late in the fourth quarter and send it to overtime. The Bucs ended up with not one, but two offensive possessions during bonus time to win the game. On the second drive the Brady/Evans duo had an opportunity to walk it off. Unfortunately, once again it just did not come to fruition.

That’s the look the Bucs were going for. Evans wins the matchup off the line. But he just can’t get to the ball. It’s weird because he gets his head around, but just seems to kill the end of the route which leads him to being just a step behind the ball. The ball is a little out in front, but if Evans catches this, it is most likely all over for the Browns. Instead, the drive stalls and Cleveland ends it on the ensuing drive.

The Missed Opportunities Are Costing The Bucs

Bucs QB Tom Brady and WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

If these six incompletions are caught, the entire outlook of the Bucs season is changed. On a micro-scale Evans’ catch rate over the past five games shoots up to 67% which is in-line with his time with Brady as his quarterback. The Baltimore and Cleveland games go from losses to wins and the Bucs are 7-4 instead of 5-6 and headed for a showdown with the 49ers in a couple of weeks with potentially the No. 3 seed in the NFC on the line.

Carolina may have even been a win as well if the Bucs had seized momentum early with that potential Brady-to-Evans touchdown bomb.

On Monday, Bowles was asked if he thought the sudden lack of connection between Brady and Evans was baffling, considering they have played together for three seasons.

“No, it doesn’t baffle me,” Bowles said. “We’ve just got to get it fixed. It’s not necessarily them two, it’s quite a few other people with it as well. We’ve just got to get on the same page. And we’re not on the same page and it shows.”

I didn’t agree with a lot of what Bowles said in his press conference on Monday. But I can agree with his assessment of how long the lack of chemistry between Brady and Evans has been affecting the team and to what degree. And time is running out for them to fix it before it is too late.