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About the Author: Jon Ledyard

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Jon Ledyard is PewterReport.com's newest Bucs beat writer and has experience covering the Pittsburgh Steelers as a beat writer and analyzing the NFL Draft for several draft websites, including The Draft Network. Follow Ledyard on Twitter at @LedyardNFLDraft

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5 Reasons To Be Pessimistic About Bucs 2020 Season

1. Young Secondary Has to Grow Up Fast

NFL offenses and defenses are built on two things in 2020: being able to pass the ball and being able to stop the pass. There are different ways to achieve success in both areas, but achieving the highest levels of success is difficult to do without game-changing players in each facet of the game.

Clearly the pieces are in place for the Bucs to have that type of success offensively, but on the defensive side there are far more questions marks. The team’s top three cornerbacks are still largely unproven, especially in the case of second-year players Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean. Yes, Dean looked great for most of his sub-400 snaps as a rookie, but the sample size is really small for a player who never looked that dominant in college.

Bucs Cb Sean Murphy-Bunting

Bucs CB Sean Murphy-Bunting – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Combine that with Murphy-Bunting’s up-and-down play in the slot, a spot that isn’t a completely natural fit for the corner’s skill set, and you get two players with a lot of questions still to answer over a 16-game season. And while Carlton Davis has looked like definite starting material over his first two seasons, there are some limitations to his game that could prevent him from being a lockdown No. 1 type of cornerback.

If Dean, SMB and Davis all take a decent-sized step forward, the Bucs’ pass defense could be formidable, but that might be a big ‘if.’ Is it realistic for all of Tampa Bay’s young corners to make necessary improvements in the same offseason, especially one devoid of valuable reps and practice time?

Add to that uncertainty a safety unit whose starting duo for Week 1 remains uncertain, and the Bucs secondary play is easily the biggest X-facor in the team’s quest for another Super Bowl title.

I love safety Antoine Winfield, the team’s second-round pick, but it’s important to remember that he just a rookie, and will likely be relied upon to communicate heavily from the back end, with substantially less practice time than most rookies get. Jordan Whitehead has done some good things since joining the Bucs as a fourth-round pick a few years ago, but coverage hasn’t been one of those things. D’Cota Dixon and Justin Evans missing last season with injuries doesn’t help matters, especially for the latter, who may be facing the end of his career if he can’t get back on the field this summer following surgery on both of his feet.

I have relatively high expectations for the Bucs’ secondary in 2020, but there is no doubt that this will be the unit to watch, especially as the season progresses.

2. Aging Veterans Along The Defensive Front

Outside linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh are important players for the Bucs defense, not only because the drop off after them on the roster is so steep, but also because of the veteran leadership and on-field intensity with which they play the game.

If that goes away in 2020, the team’s chances of getting to the quarterback with four and maintaining the physicality of the unit could diminish with it. While JPP hasn’t missed much time due to on-field reasons, a fireworks accident and injuries suffered in a car crash have been, at least briefly, career-threatening. Fortunately, he has already overcome those incidents to forge on with a successful career, becoming the unquestioned leader for the team’s defense in 2019.

Bucs Dt Ndamukong Suh

Bucs DT Ndamukong Suh – Photo by: Mary Holt/PR

As much as Pierre-Paul has continued to play at a high level, his age and injury history suggest a decline is coming. Can he stave it off for another year? If he misses time, can anyone replace his leadership or his level of play? JPP has played a huge percentage of his team’s defensive snaps for the past several years, but he’ll need to be managed if Tampa Bay hopes to keep him fresh all season.

Suh’s game has already fallen off more than JPP’s, as the 33 year-old offered very little as a pass rusher in 2019 with just 2.5 sacks. The Nebraska product can still stop the run and process the game at a high level mentally, but is he a a difference-maker anymore? I don’t know if Suh can play 80 percent of the Bucs’ defensive snaps this season if the team expects to maximize what’s left of his game.

3. Defensive Depth Is Weak

Almost every NFL team is in trouble if ether of their starting offensive tackles or its quarterback goes down, and the Bucs are no exception. But where the team’s concern reaches a new height is on the other side of the ball, where the Bucs are desperately lacking depth at some of the game’s most important positions.

If cornerbacks Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting or Jamel Dean go down, next up at cornerback is M.J. Stewart (*gulp*), special teamer Ryan Smith, and either undrafted free agent Parnell Motley or Mazzi Wilkins.

If defensive linemen Ndamukong Suh, Vita Vea or William Gholston miss time due to injury or illness, Rakeem Nunez-Roches and sixth-round rookie Khalil Davis will have to get the job done.

Bucs Olb Anthony Nelson

Bucs OLB Anthony Nelson – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

If Shaquil Barrett or Jason Pierre-Paul can’t go, 2019 fourth-round pick Anthony Nelson leads an unproven group that includes Kahzin Daniels, Quinton Bell and this year’s undrafted free agent Cam Gill.

The Bucs might be able to weather a brief storm at safety or off-ball linebacker due to more proven depth with veterans like Andrew Adams and Kevin Minter, respectively, but the team is one disaster away from having to rely on below-average players for quality starting playing time. There just simply isn’t the depth to withstand any significant loss along the defensive line or at cornerback.

Those cornerstones positions aren’t exactly where you want to be thin on your roster. If the Bucs were hurting at running back or linebacker, they might be able to get away with it. But they have to be terrified with their backup options if one of their studs goes down. The Bucs don’t have pedigree or proven play from any of their depth pieces on the defensive line or in the secondary. If a veteran isn’t added, these will be the positions you pray can stay healthy.

4. Offensive Chemistry Issues

I don’t want to belabor this point too much, because it’s a fairly obvious one, but it also has to be stated. The Bucs are one of just a handful of teams with a new starting quarterback, and they are the only team in the NFL with a new starting signal caller and unquestioned playoff expectations.

Bucs Te Rob Gronkowski And Qb Tom Brady – Photo By: Getty Images

Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski and QB Tom Brady – Photo by: Getty Images

Regardless of how good we might think Tom Brady still is, getting practice time in a new offense with new teammates is important. How much will COVID-19 keep this from happening? Already Brady has lost opportunities for valuables reps in OTAs and mini-camp, but he has been working out with teammates on air at least, so there is some level of familiarity being established.

Still, how comfortable Brady and the Bucs’ two key offseason additions in Rob Gronkowski and Tristan Wirfs are by the time training camp concludes will be huge entering a Week 1 showdown against the best roster in the NFL in New Orleans. With a few Bucs players already quarantined after testing positive for COVID-19, the virus is already threatening to keep key players out of the limited practice time remaining before the season begins. Given the number of new pieces at key positions Tampa Bay has, establishing chemistry is a bigger deal for the Bucs than most teams in the league right now.

5. A Loaded NFC

While the NFC South looks pretty cut-and-dry on paper, the conference as a whole is much tougher to figure out. Yes, it would be massively disappointing if the Bucs missed the playoffs, but one reason to be pessimistic about their hopes is just how competitive the NFC may be from top to bottom. Making the playoffs as a wild card in 2020 is one thing, but dethroning the defending division champion New Orleans Saints, who are coming off back-to-back 13-3 seasons over the last two years, will be an uphill climb.

Saints Rb Alvin Kamara

Saints RB Alvin Kamara – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

In the NFC East, the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys will push for playoff spots, while the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings seem like sure contenders in the NFC North that Tampa Bay may also need to defeat during their 2020 match-ups. In the NFC West every team could be competitive this season from former lowly Arizona to the back-sliding Los Angeles Rams to the obvious division contenders in San Francisco and Seattle.

Clearly the Bucs are talented enough to be in that mix with every team listed there, but if the aforementioned concerns on this list become actual concerns, it won’t take much of a slump to quickly fall behind much of the conference. Even with seven playoff spots available this season, the Bucs will have to fight their way through a brutally deep and talented NFC to mark their 2020 campaign a success with postseason action.

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