Bucs Briefing is exclusively sponsored by Spotify Green Room: Tap In, Talk Sports – the official social audio partner of PewterReport.com.

Spotify Green Room is changing the way we talk sports (and talk about the Bucs!). It’s the only place for live audio conversations about the takes, rumors, news, and teams you care about.

Welcome to the in-season edition of Bucs Briefing! My weekly column will appear each Wednesday morning, typically detailing seven key observations from the team’s most recent game. We’ll look at tape, scheme and major storylines as we get ready to close the door on one game, and open the door on the next. Enjoy!

7. Dean’s Huge Gaffe

There’s no question Jamel Dean has been great for most of this season. He’s stepped up while the Bucs have struggled with injuries, playing like a legit top cornerback. But with Dean, it always feels like you’re waiting for the other shoe to drop. Consistency seems to elude him like no other.

Part of it is shoddy technique and an uncomfortability in zone coverage. But part of it is just inexplicable. There’s absolutely no logical reason for Dean to make some of the mistakes he does, especially in year three. The worst play of the game came on a third-and-14 for Washington from the Bucs’ 39-yard line.

The outset of this play goes perfectly for the Bucs. Todd Bowles dials up a nickel blitz with Antoine Winfield, Jr. coming from the slot. Taylor Heinicke doesn’t see it pre-snap, so the protection never accounts for him. Winfield is in free, forcing Heinicke to his check down right away. That’s exactly what Bowles wanted with Washington on the cusp of field goal range.

Dean comes up immediately and has a point-blank chance to tackle J.D. McKissic for 1-2 yard gain. And then … his controller breaks? I just have no idea what happened here. McKissic didn’t even throw a move on him. He just runs around him and Dean doesn’t close the space and attempt to tackle until McKissic is past him. I watch a lot of football, and you just don’t see this at the NFL level.

Washington should have faced a decision on punting on fourth-and-12 from the Bucs’ 37, or attempting a 54-55 yard field goal with their third kicker of the year. Instead, they had to choose between kicking a 45-yarder or going for it on fourth-and-3. A ridiculously poor play.

Dean wasn’t great in coverage either at Washington. He was consistently a step slow to the ball and allowed a couple tough catches later in the game despite tight coverage. At his size and length, he has to force more incompletions in those situations. Next up for Dean is the Giants, who attacked him relentlessly last year. Can he show he’s grown as a player and get back on track?

6. Where Are The Deep Balls?

In his post-game pressers, I thought Bruce Arians did a great job off addressing why the Bucs are throwing short more in recent weeks. Opposing defenses are spending the majority of the game dropping their secondary off into coverage and relying on 3-4 rushers to get home. This has generated mixed results for defenses, but at least they aren’t getting shredded like Miami.

For most of the season, Brady has still picked apart defenses obsessed with preventing the big play. The Bucs offensive line has been outstanding in allowing him to hit the few shots that have been there in Weeks 6-8. Against Washington, the line failed far too often. The Football Team was able to drop eight on a couple key places and still get enough quick pressure with three to force Brady to his check down.

Will this be a consistent issue? I don’t think so. Tampa Bay’s offensive line is one of the NFL’s best. And over 70 offensive plays, their performance probably looks a lot better. But when you get just 48 plays because your defense can’t get off the field, 5-6 mistakes get magnified.

Brady has 42 deep ball attempts (20+ air yards) on the season, seventh most in the NFL. His adjusted completion percentage is 50 percent, tied for sixth-best in the NFL. In short, Brady has been pretty deadly when throwing the deep ball. But over the past four games, the opportunities haven’t been there.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

In Weeks 1-5, Brady threw deep 32 times, completing 12 with four drops. That’s an adjusted completion percentage of 50 percent, a terrific mark. The big plays down the field were frequent (6.4 attempts per game) and Brady’s accuracy was on point. But in Weeks 6-10, Brady has only gone deep 10 times per PFF. That’s an average of 2.5 deep balls per game. He’s maintained his accuracy, hitting 50 percent of those 10 throws. But in a vertical passing attack, opponents are taking away what Bruce Arians’ offense does best.

That’s not as debilitating a concern as it was last year. The Bucs have more answers in the short-intermediate passing game than they’ve had in the past. They found a few of those plays as the game progressed on Sunday, but consistency was a major issue. I don’t think it’s the end of the world if the Bucs don’t hit deep balls as often as they did in Weeks 1-5. But through those five games, the deep ball represented over 14 percent of Brady’s passes. In Weeks 6-10, 20+ air yards throws are 6.6 percent of his attempts.

This isn’t a Brady issue. He’s not passing up deep balls on tape. I’m not even sure it’s a Bucs issue – yet. Tampa Bay has still done an outstanding job creating big plays even without the deep ball. They are second in the NFL in 20+ yard passing plays with 43. Tampa Bay’s seven 40+ yard pass plays are tied for fourth-best in the league. Clearly, the Bucs can maintain great offense and passing game production without the huge plays.

But I’m still worried about two things. Can Arians stay patient enough and adapt to how defenses are playing Tampa Bay? Brady and Byron Leftwich stayed patient on Sunday, the execution just wasn’t good enough. The other concern I have is that the Bucs need to keep finding options against these types of coverages. Quick screens to Chris Godwin can’t be the whole Plan B. If the passing attack can keep finding ways to win short-intermediate, the Bucs will be fine. Eventually defenses will need to adjust, and the big plays will be there once again.

5. Brown’s Injury Has Been A Killer

Listening to the reports, it sounds like Antonio Brown will be back in Week 12 against the Colts. He’s not off the table for this week however, and he could return as late as Week 13 against Atlanta. The Bucs are 5-0 with Brown and 1-3 without him. There’s been much more to their losses than that, especially the last two, but the Bucs are a much better offense with Brown on the field. Why is that?

Well, apart from Brown’s individual dominance, he’s also a significantly better player than Tyler Johnson. That’s not really a knock on Johnson, who is a fine depth receiver. In some offenses, Johnson would definitely be a capable No. 3 wideout. But in Tampa Bay, the wide receiver position is second only to quarterback in Bruce Arians’ offense. There’s a reason Arians has always stockpiled wide receivers everywhere he’s coached. In his scheme, receivers have to be well-rounded, athletic and smart. And you need 4-5 pass catchers wired that way.

As more has been asked of Johnson, we’ve seen some of his strengths and some of his limitations. He makes tough catches, has great ball skills and is slippery after the catch. But Johnson has just average size, strength and athleticism. That was apparent on Sunday, when he struggled to create separation in a few key situations.

On the first third down of the game, Brady delivered a pretty accurate ball despite being drilled by Jonathan Allen. But instead of accelerating out of his break. Johnson starts reaching for the ball immediately. What he should do here is accelerate and run through this catch. This ball will hit him in stride if he does. But because Johnson doesn’t explode out of his break and starts reaching for the ball too early, it’s incomplete. You think Brown makes that same mistake?

Later in the first half, the Bucs were trying to drive for a score before halftime. Johnson is running a curl route on the outside, designed to push the cornerback vertically before breaking back to the ball.

First, Johnson isn’t particularly fast or quick, so it’s hard for him to create vertical space against quality cornerbacks. But more than anything, Johnson is just sloppy at the top of this round. He takes several steps to gear down, rather than breaking down hard and quickly working back to the ball. Johnson drifts into the cornerback’s space at the top of the route, allowing the defender to get back in the catching window. The pass is broken up despite a well-timed and accurate throw by Brady. It’s a good play by the corner, but Johnson’s route made it much easier.

Because Johnson struggles with more vertical routes, he’s a much better slot option than he is an outside receiver. Johnson plays best with natural leverage on in-breaking routes, making tough catches in the middle of the field. He’s a good No. 4, especially when he’s splitting that role with a polar opposite player in Scotty Miller. But asking Johnson to be a full-time No. 3 receiver in this offense has revealed some limitations.

The Bucs need Brown back on the field. And re-signing him in the offseason may become an even greater priority then we realized a few months ago.

4. Tough Day For Bucs Guards

Of the 29 games I’ve covered the Bucs, I would say left guard Ali Marpet has only had 2-3 bad performances. In fact, he rarely even loses a rep during a game, in the run or pass game. But on Sunday, Marpet lost his high-profile match-up against Washington defensive tackle Jonathan Allen. Allen gave Marpet some issues in last year’s Wild Card playoff game too. But Marpet also had his share of dominant wins.

There were a few plays where Marpet got the best of Allen in this one, but not many. In the first half, Allen beat Marpet a couple of times. The star defensive tackle landed a huge hit on Tom Brady on the first third down of the game. Then on Brady’s second interception, Allen’s pressure may have helped the throw off-target a bit.

Marpet got it together in the second half and was much better. His holding penalty came when he got stepped on by left tackle Donovan Smith and fell. Just unlucky.

But right guard Alex Cappa also struggled throughout the game. Like Marpet, Cappa was charged with surrendering three pressures per PFF. But unlike Marpet, Cappa wasn’t facing a Top 3 defensive tackle in the NFL this season. Washington is deep on the interior however, and Matt Ioannidis bullied Cappa for this red zone pressure on Brady.

Marpet and Cappa will play better moving forward. But the Bucs’ normally reliable guard duo was part of the team-wide debacle on Sunday.

3. Bucs Run Defense + White Got Its Swagger Back

I don’t want to talk about all negative things in this column, so let’s do a section on the Bucs run defense. When all else fails, we can always count on that. Two weeks after giving up a couple more splash runs than usual, the Bucs run defense was smothering against Washington. Eliminating quarterback scrambles, The Football Team rushed 31 times for 79 yards. That’s an average of just 2.5 yards per carry!

When the Bucs are at their best defensively, it’s almost always a team effort. Few units in football are better at doing their individual jobs in the run game, which leads to team success.

Jason Pierre-Paul is emptying the clip this season. Lots of players would have hung it up and had surgery, but Pierre-Paul is playing through the pain of a torn rotator cuff. Unblocked at the line of scrimmage, Pierre-Paul steps down and takes on both pullers. His slow pancaking allows Devin White to slip around the edge for the stop. Great job by Pat O’Connor not getting washed down, and Jordan Whitehead triggering through the wide receiver crack block. Just a terrific play of what it looks like when every defender does their job at a high level.

White was a huge reason for the Bucs run defense success. From the first play of the game for Washington, White was on fire.

White’s success on Sunday came from identifying things quickly in front of him. When Washington ran a play-action outside zone and threw back to Terry McLaurin on a quick screen, White was all over it.

White finished the game with 18 tackles, two sacks and three tackles for loss. His first sack was unblocked and he almost whiffed on it. But White’s second sack was probably the best of his career. He turned a tight corner through guard Ereck Flowers to drop Heinicke.

Don’t get me wrong, there were some ugly plays, too. White took some tough angles as a tackler and was all over the place in coverage. He obliterated his third teammate of the year when he concussed Dee Delaney while trying to tackle his opponent. There is definitely room to improve. But for a guy who has been the team’s most disappointing player over the first half of the season, this was a big step in the right direction.

2. Looking Forward: Can Bucs Still Win The No. 1 Seed?

Right now, the Bucs have an 89 percent chance to make the playoffs and a 71 percent chance to win the NFC South, per FiveThirtyEight.com. The Bucs’ top challengers for the division title, the Saints and Panthers, have a 14 and 13 percent chance at the crown, respectively. Here’s the next three games for each team:

Bucs: Giants, at Indianapolis, at Atlanta

Saints: at Philadelphia, Buffalo, Dallas

Panthers: Washington, at Miami, Bye Week

Bucs QB Tom Brady and HC Bruce Arians – Photo by: USA Today

If each games goes as expected – the Bucs win all three, the Saints win in Philly and lose to Buffalo and Dallas, and the Panthers win both games before their bye week – Tampa Bay will essentially have the division in hand. They’ll sit at 99 percent to make the playoffs and 87 percent to win the South. But the Bucs could have had this thing all but wrapped up if they had beaten Washington. Now the intrigue will draw itself out for a few more weeks.

Tampa Bay’s bid for the No. 1 seed in the NFC is trickier. Tampa Bay’s loss at Washington was a huge blow to the team’s chances to capture the first round bye. FiveThirtyEight.com gives them just a six percent chance to earn the top seed right now. That puts them behind the Packers, Cowboys and Cardinals. The Bucs could run the table, but that seems unlikely given how they are playing. Even one more loss would make it tough for them to capture the bye.

Of course, Tampa Bay won it all last year without the bye. Not having to play on the road would be great, especially considering how poorly they’ve played away from home this season. But those things tend to regress to the mean. By the end of the season, if the Bucs aren’t playing better on the road, they’ll have bigger issues to worry about than the No. 1 seed.

1. Laugh A Little

If you’re like most of the Pewter Report staff, Marvel movies geek you. But since the Avengers ended, I’ve had a hard time getting into it again. I’ve never been into comic books or superheroes beyond the movies. But no doubt about it, I will be in theaters to see Spider-Man: No Way Home. This looks more intense than the first two Spider-Man movies that dropped. The new trailer has me hyped.