Fresh off a gritty 20-16 win — and some revenge — over the Lions in Detroit, the Bucs return to Raymond James Stadium this Sunday at 2-0 and ready to host the 0-2 Denver Broncos.

Tampa Bay will be looking to improve to 3-0 for the first time since 2005, when it began the season 4-0 en route to an 11-5 campaign and an NFC South title. It would also be just the fifth 3-0 start in franchise history (1979, 1997, 2000, 2005).

The Bucs should have a lot of confidence coming off of 37-20 and 20-16 wins over the Commanders and Lions, respectively, but they’ll need to make sure they’re not taking the Broncos lightly. Of course, they’re also going to have to weather the storm once again in terms of injuries. They’ll still be without Antoine Winfield Jr. and Calijah Kancey, plus the statuses of Vita Vea (knee) and Luke Goedeke (concussion) are also uncertain as of now. Goedeke will need to clear concussion protocol after missing the Week 2 win over Detroit.

Tampa Bay largely played a complete game in Week 1 and grinded out its win in Week 2. So, what will Week 3 bring when Sean Payton and his Broncos come to town?

The Last Time…

Bucs OLB Shaquil Barrett – Photo courtesy of Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs and Broncos last met in Week 3 of the 2020 season. That game was in Denver and saw Tampa Bay absolutely dominate on its way to a 28-10 win.

The Tom Brady-led Bucs jumped out to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter before taking a 23-3 lead that they never looked back on. Shaq Barrett had something of a revenge game, notching two sacks — one of which was a safety — in his return to Denver. Meanwhile, Brady threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns in the victory.

Overall, Todd Bowles’ defense racked up six sacks and 10 quarterback hits that day while forcing two turnovers as well. Antoine Winfield Jr., Jordan Whitehead, Vita Vea and Jason Pierre-Paul all registered sacks in addition to the two from Barrett, while Lavonte David and Mike Edwards came up with interceptions.

The Broncos have a 7-3 edge in the all-time series between the two teams, and the Bucs’ last home victory in the brief history of this series came on Sept. 26, 1999.

How The Bucs And Broncos Are Trending

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay’s stock hit a new level in Week 2. After opening the season with a relatively breezy 37-20 win over the Commanders at home, there weren’t many who gave the banged-up Bucs a chance to go into Detroit and come out with a win. In fact, Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds was the only one on the staff to correctly predict a Tampa Bay victory.

While the Bucs were a surprise team last year and still flew under the radar after Week 1, they won’t necessarily catch anyone off guard going forward. Their win over the Lions — an NFC favorite — in Detroit put everyone on notice. Now, they’ll need to build on their 2-0 start and keep the arrow pointing upward.

The offense took a step back in Week 2, albeit against a tougher defense. Yet Baker Mayfield still did what he needed to do, finding Chris Godwin early and often in the first half before later taking it upon himself to get the job done with his legs. His back-to-back 11-yard runs — with the second being a go-ahead touchdown in the third quarter — went into a five-carry, 34-yard rushing performance that made him the team’s leading rusher on the day.

Defensively, Tampa Bay’s injury-riddled secondary more than held its own against a Lions offense it couldn’t solve last year. Zyon McCollum, fresh off clearing concussion protocol, had his best game as a Buc, picking off Jared Goff and totaling four passes defensed. And playing in place of Antoine Winfield Jr., Christian Izien chipped in with an interception. The defensive unit as a whole stepped up big time when its collective back was against the wall, holding the Lions to a 1-of-7 mark in the red zone.

Broncos QB Bo Nix – Photo by: USA Today

As for the visitors, the Broncos come into Raymond James Stadium having lost their first two games. They opened the season with a hard-fought 26-20 loss at Seattle before losing 13-6 at home against Pittsburgh in Week 2.

There’s little reason to believe Denver will contend for much this year, as Sean Payton is breaking in rookie quarterback Bo Nix from the jump. The No. 12 overall pick in this year’s draft, Nix has completed 59.7% of his passes over his first two games with 384 yards, no touchdowns and four interceptions. He does have a rushing touchdown to his name, however, and he’s the team’s leading rusher on the year with 60 yards on nine carries. Though that says more about the state of Denver’s run game.

The Broncos defense is a bit further along than the offense, and it’s coming off a commanding performance against an admittedly poor Steelers offense in Week 2. The group allowed just 251 total yards and a 4-of-13 mark on third downs, but the offense’s inability to get the job done early in the game put them in a bad spot.

Perhaps the biggest concern for the Broncos through two games is their penalty numbers. After being penalized eight times for 60 yards in Week 1, Denver was flagged nine times for 124 yards in Week 2.

Here’s how the Bucs and Broncos stack up heading into Week 3:

Bucs Offense: 4th in scoring offense (28.5 PPG), 19th in total offense (304.0 yards per game), 13th in passing offense (213.0 yards per game), 24th in rushing offense (91.0 yards per game)

Broncos Offense: 30th in scoring offense (13.0 PPG), 29th in total offense (263.0 yards per game), 21st in passing offense (181.5 yards per game), 27th in rushing offense (81.5 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: T-6th in scoring defense (18.0 points allowed per game), 28th in total defense (381.0 yards allowed per game), 29th in passing defense (242.5 yards allowed per game), 19th in rushing defense (138.5 yards allowed per game)

Broncos Defense: T-10th in scoring defense (19.5 points allowed per game), 9th in total defense (277.5 yards allowed per game), 4th in passing defense (134.0 yards allowed per game), 23rd in rushing defense (143.5 yards allowed per game)

As of Wednesday night, the Bucs were 6.5-point home favorites over the Broncos, with the Over/Under set at 40 (per BetUS).

What Might Decide This Bucs-Broncos Matchup?

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs have been marginally better at running the football two weeks into the 2024 season than they were in 2022 and 2023, though that’s not saying much and doesn’t really reflect how things went last Sunday. So, let’s try that again. Tampa Bay ran the ball pretty well in Week 1 before having its ground attack stifled in Week 2 at Detroit.

As the team returns home to face a pretty poor Denver run defense, getting Rachaad White and Bucky Irving going could make a huge difference and alleviate Baker Mayfield a bit as he and his talented corps of pass-catchers do battle with a very good Broncos pass defense.

On the defensive side of the ball, it would be nice to see the Bucs defense continue to generate some turnovers the way it did the win over the Lions. Zyon McCollum and Christian Izien picked off Jared Goff, and either of those guys – or perhaps Jamel Dean, Tykee Smith or Jordan Whitehead – needs to take advantage of Denver’s rookie quarterback and the fact that he’s sure to have plenty to deal with pressure-wise as Todd Bowles throws different looks at him.

Another factor that could determine the way this game goes for the Bucs is their ability (or inability) to get healthier. They know there are some multi-week injuries they’re dealing with, but with Vita Vea day-to-day and Luke Goedeke progressing (but still needing to pass through concussion protocol), help could be on the way. Getting either Vea or Goedeke (ideally both) back for this game would be a huge boost for a banged-up Tampa Bay team.

Broncos QB Bo Nix – Photo by: USA Today

The Broncos need Bo Nix to be much better if they’re going to make this a game on Sunday. The rookie has zero passing touchdowns and four interceptions through two games, and the Buccaneer defense will be flying around looking to take the ball away a couple more times during this contest. Nix has really struggled to push the ball downfield through two games.

As Austin Gayle pointed out, Nix is 11-of-36 for 212 yards and four interceptions on passes more than five yards down the field this season. That 30.6% completion rate on such passes is the worst in the league, and it’s the worst for a quarterback in Weeks 1 and 2 in the last 10 years.

But as much as Nix needs to step up, Denver needs some playmakers to step up around him. Josh Reynolds is his leading receiver through two games with nine catches for 138 yards, while the next most productive pass-catcher has been Courtland Sutton with only five catches for 64 yards. Remember, that’s through two games. The run game hasn’t helped at all, either. Nix is the team’s leading rusher with only 60 yards, as Javonte Williams has been limited to 19 carries for 40 yards (2.1 avg.) so far in 2024. That’s not going to cut it against the Bucs.

It’s not as if the Broncos defense has been asking much of the team’s offense in the first two games. Sean Payton‘s team scored 20 points in a Week 1 loss at Seattle, but that was largely the defense’s doing. That unit racked up two safeties, and the offense’s three field goal drives averaged out to nine yards per drive. Only Denver’s garbage-time touchdown drive went more than 50 yards (54). The Broncos then lost 13-6 in Week 2, with the offense letting the defense down again.

On Sunday, Denver’s defense will likely have to carry the weight again. A spectacular performance against Mayfield and Co. might be a necessity for Payton’s squad to get its first win.

Key Players To Watch

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

How about the start that Chris Godwin is off to? He has 15 catches on 16 targets for 200 yards (13.3 avg.) and two touchdowns, leading the way for Tampa Bay. He has already matched his receiving touchdown total from last year and is one away from matching his 2023 total. It’s not just that – it’s also about how he’s getting the job done for the Bucs. He’s driving the offense, with 12 of his 15 catches going for first downs.

Not that Godwin hadn’t been productive in the last couple of years, but so far this season, he’s been back to pre-injury Godwin levels. If he keeps this going, it’ll be well timed considering he’s in a contract year.

Zyon McCollum was charged with a big ask heading into 2024, as Tampa Bay traded former CB1 Carlton Davis III, bumped Jamel Dean up to CB1 and slid McCollum up into the CB2 role. So far, so good for the third-year cornerback. He came up with his first career interception to start off a strong performance last week against the Lions. He could’ve had a couple more interceptions, but he settled for the one and a career-high FOUR passes defensed. The Bucs would love to see that continue on Sunday as they look to keep the Denver air attack from taking off for the first time this year.

Josh Reynolds gave the Bucs some trouble when he was with the Lions last year, catching three passes for 50 yards in the Week 6 meeting before posting two catches for 27 yards and a touchdown in the playoff rematch. He’s with a different team and quarterback now, so results may vary, but he’s still been Bo Nix‘s leading target through two weeks. While Courtland Sutton has more targets than him (16), he’s only caught five of them, so the connection hasn’t been there just yet between Nix and Sutton. Handling Reynolds would be huge for Todd Bowles‘ defense in this one.

Broncos CB Pat Surtain II Photo by: USA Today

Though Bucs safety Antoine Winfield Jr. became the highest-paid defensive back in NFL history when he signed his new contract this offseason, Pat Surtain II surpassed him just before the season started. He signed a four-year, $96 million deal with $77.5 million guaranteed and is Denver’s best player.

It hasn’t been a banner start to the year for him, though, as he’s been penalized four times through two games this season. His coverage grades (per PFF) have been poor, too, though he’s only allowed five catches (on seven targets) for 55 yards and no touchdowns. It’ll be on Surtain to have a shutdown-type game come Sunday.

Bucs vs. Broncos Game Information

When: Sunday, September 22
Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX – Tim Brando (Play by Play), Matt Millen (Analyst), Sarah Kustok (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martín Gramática (Analyst)

Bucs vs. Broncos: LIVE Pewter GameDay Show Sunday At 1pm ET

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— PewterReport 🏴‍☠️ (@PewterReport) September 19, 2024