Welcome to SR’s Fab 5 – my weekly insider column on the Bucs that features five things that are on my mind. SR’s Fab 5 is now a quicker read, but still packs a punch. Enjoy!

FAB 1. Building Bucs’ 2024 Roster Will Be A Challenge

We interrupt this Tampa Bay playoff run (yes, the Bucs will still be in playoff contention – even at 4-6 after a looming loss in San Francisco on Sunday) to bring you some news about the 2024 Buccaneers.

Come 7:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, you Pewter People will probably be upset and have the torches and the pitchforks out again after another loss to the 49ers – just like you were after the 39-37 loss at Houston just two weeks ago.

We’ve previewed the heck out of the Bucs at 49ers game on PewterReport.com and on our Pewter Report Podcast on the Pewter ReportTV channel. So I’m going to be forward-thinking and looking ahead to next season.

Bucs GM Jason Licht and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

It’s too early to throw out some possible head coaching candidates to replace Todd Bowles (because he may win the division again and save his job). And it’s too early to forecast who the Bucs might be targeting in the 2024 NFL Draft because they could be picking within the Top 10 or in the early 20s depending on how this season finishes out.

It’s too early to speculate what type of contract extension Baker Mayfield gets in Tampa Bay – or if he gets one at all. If Bowles is replaced and the Bucs have a Top 10 pick, there’s a strong chance that a new head coach would want to draft his own quarterback in a very deep QB class.

But what we do know is that the Bucs have 33 players under contract next year per OverTheCap. That doesn’t include six players who will be on the Bucs’ salary cap in the form of dead cap money due to voidable contract years.

So general manager Jason Licht and the Bucs will need to re-sign, sign and draft 57 more players to get to the 90 needed to bring to training camp. As of right now, Tampa Bay is 20 players short of the 53 mandated for an in-season roster.

But the number will actually be more like 29 – not 33. It’s a safe bet that center Ryan Jensen will be released post-June 1 to free up $1.21 million as his career is likely over due to his catastrophic knee injury from training camp in 2022. Jensen is set to hit the cap for $5.977 million in 2024.

Bucs WR Russell Gage – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Outside linebacker Shaq Barrett, who turns 32 next year, could also be a post-June 1 cap casualty, as that would result in saving $4.968 million and a dead cap hit of $9,267,000. Barrett is due to hit the cap for $14.235 million next year. That’s a lot of money for three sacks and a pick-six.

Wide receiver Russell Gage is set to have a $13,350,668 cap value next year, and he has been a huge disappointment in Tampa Bay due to injuries. He is not worth anywhere close to that much money. He could be released in the offseason and save the team $6.448 million in cap space with only a $6,902,668 dead cap money charge.

And the Bucs will have a decision to make on cornerback Carlton Davis III, who has a cap value of $20,517,334 in 2024. I love Davis as a person and a player, but in reality, he hasn’t proven to be worth that much money due to his injury history and inability to create turnovers. Tampa Bay could cut or trade him in the offseason, and he would save the team $6.448 million in cap space and leave the team with a dead cap hit of $14,069,334.

If the Bucs want to trade Davis or cut him after June 1, Tampa Bay would save $14.5 million and only have $6,017,334 in dead cap money this year. However, the Bucs would have to carry Davis’ entire $20.5 million salary cap all throughout free agency in that scenario and that would limit their spending by nearly $6.5 million if they wanted to release after the start of free agency.

Bucs S Antoine Winfield Jr. DT Calijah Kancey and ILB Devin White – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay will probably extend left tackle Tristan Wirfs’ contract instead of having him play on a fifth-year option that would cost $18 million. A contract extension for Wirfs, who is already under contract for 2024, could save the Bucs around $10 million in the spring.

Per OverTheCap.com Bucs are slated to have $62,287,310 in cap space at the start of the 2024 offseason, not including any possible increases to the salary cap by the league just yet.

That seems like a lot of cap space, but consider these free agents who the Bucs may or may not have an interest in re-signing:

Bucs Top 2024 Free Agents

FS Antoine Winfield Jr.
WR Mike Evans
ILB Lavonte David
K Chase McLaughlin
QB Baker Mayfield

Winfield, Evans and Mayfield could command the most money with multi-year contract extensions, although their 2024 cap number could be minimized with backloaded deals.

Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs – Photo by: USA Today

So let’s assume that the Bucs extend Wirfs, move on from Jensen and Barrett post-June 1 and part ways with Gage and Davis prior to free agency. Those moves collectively will save approximately $30 million in cap space.

Add in an expected salary cap increase of around $25 million and now Tampa Bay would have approximately $117 million to spend next year – and that’s without any other cap cuts or restructures. Not that Tampa Bay would really have to do anything more with that much cap room.

So let’s take a look at the expected holes in the Bucs’ 2023 roster. I’m not going to try to pretend to fill them all right now because that’s a lot of guesswork. We don’t even know who the head coach will be in 2024, and in reality, it all starts there.

FAB 2. Bucs’ Returning Skill Position Players In 2024

The biggest question for the Bucs – or any team – is who is going to be the quarterback. Perhaps a bigger question is whether or not wide receiver Mike Evans be re-signed. Let’s take a look at the skill positions in Tampa Bay, where there could be several new starters in 2024.

Quarterback

QB1
QB2 Kyle Trask

QB3

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

With 14 touchdowns and five interceptions, Baker Mayfield has resurrected his career in Tampa Bay with a very good first half of the 2023 campaign. He’s a great fit for Dave Canales’ offense, but will Canales and head coach Todd Bowles be here next year?

If Bowles returns, then Mayfield’s chances of returning improve. If not, then a new head coach might want to draft his own QB in the first round.

Trask enters his contract year as the Bucs’ backup and the team will need to sign a No. 3 QB.

Running Back

RB1
RB2 Rachaad White
RB3 Sean Tucker
RB4

White has proven to be a better receiver than runner from a production standpoint, but he could do more with more holes up front. Ideally, he’s an outstanding third down back and No. 2 halfback. Tampa Bay may look for a more explosive starter in 2024, but if the team can’t find one, then White will the starter once again.

Seldom-used Tucker needs to work on pass protection, but he returns as the only other running back under contract.

Wide Receiver

WR1
WR2 Chris Godwin
WR3 Trey Palmer
WR4 Rakim Jarrett
WR5
WR6

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs have three receivers under contract – and Evans isn’t one of them. It will be interesting to see what type of contract he fetches in free agency. Tampa Bay will likely allow him to hit the market and might match his best offer. It’s hard to imagine the Bucs offense being better without Evans in 2024 for whoever is calling plays.

Godwin is entering a contract year and has lost some of the explosiveness he had prior to his knee injury in 2021. He has better, more reliable hands than Evans does, but is not nearly as dynamic and doesn’t produce nearly as many touchdowns.

Palmer and Jarrett return in 2024 as depth pieces, but neither has proven worthy of being slated as a No. 2 receiver. The Bucs will almost certainly draft a receiver by the end of the third round to vie for a starting spot, especially if Evans doesn’t return.

Tight End

TE1
TE2 Cade Otton
TE3 Payne Durham
TE4 Ko Kieft

Otton has been the de facto starter in Tampa Bay simply because there isn’t anyone better on the roster. He’s a sub-par blocker and an average receiver. The Bucs would feel better about Otton if big days like the one he had in Houston were more common rather than being an outlier. Ideally, he’s a No. 2 tight end in the league.

Durham hasn’t shown much as a receiver or a blocker, and Kieft is limited to just blocking and he’s not very good at it. The Bucs could really use two more quality tight ends, including a true starter, and a better reserve than can either take the spot of Durham or Kieft in 2024.

FAB 3. Bucs’ Returning Offensive And Defensive Linemen In 2024

The Bucs will have to find a couple of starting offensive linemen and a total of seven new players between both the O-line and the D-line next year. Here’s where the 2024 roster currently stands.

Offensive Line

LT1 Tristan Wirfs
LG1
C1
RG1 Cody Mauch
RT1 Luke Goedeke
OL6 Robert Hainsey
OL7
OL8
OL9

Bucs RT Luke Goedeke – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs have an elite offensive tackle in Wirfs, a very good tackle in Goedeke and an athletic interior lineman in Mauch, who could develop into a better version of Alex Cappa in time. Those are three keepers, but Tampa Bay needs to upgrade the left guard spot, where Matt Feiler and Aaron Stinnie aren’t the answer.

The Bucs also need a better center than Hainsey. There’s been a big drop off in play and attitude from Ryan Jensen, who will certainly retire next offseason. Tampa Bay is considering sliding Mauch over to center, but that’s not set in stone. The team will see what’s available in free agency and the draft first.

The Bucs need to find five more offensive lineman in the offseason, and there is a chance that a few like Stinnie, Nick Leverett, Brandon Walton or Justin Skule could return, depending on who the offensive coordinator and offensive line coach is in 2024.

Defensive Line

DT1 Calijah Kancey
NT1 Vita Vea
DT3
DT4 Logan Hall
DT5 Mike Greene
DT6

Vea is a stud and Kancey is an emerging star up front. They can thrive in a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme, depending on who is calling plays on defense next year and what system they’re running. Hall has been a disappointment over his 1.5 years in Tampa Bay and just doesn’t make many plays. He’s still under contract for two more seasons, as is Greene.

The Bucs will need to find two more defensive tackles, and one of them needs to be an impact player because there will be a huge drop off in talent if either Kancey or Vea gets injured and Hall has to sub in.

FAB 4. Bucs’ Returning Linebackers And Secondary In 2024

Will Tampa Bay have a new head coach and transition to a 4-3 defense or stick with a 3-4 front? That could determine who stays and who goes up front. In the secondary, re-signing Antoine Winfield Jr. is a top priority, as well as finding another starting-caliber safety.

Outside Linebackers

OLB1 YaYa Diaby
OLB2
OLB3 Anthony Nelson
OLB4 Markees Watts

OLB5 Joe Tryon-Shoyinka

Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Shaq Barrett turns 32 next year and he’s obviously not the same player he was prior to his Achilles injury. Barrett no longer threatens the edge as a great pass rusher, and he’s not worth the $17 million average he’s currently making. By no means is at a given that Barrett returns in 2024.

Diaby has the power and athleticism to be a starter in 2024 as long as he continues to ascend during his rookie season. At 6-foot-3, 263 pounds, he can play as either a 3-4 outside linebacker or a 4-3 defensive end.

The Bucs will need another starting-caliber edge rusher next year. Tryon-Shoyinka is too inconsistent as a pass rusher and not nearly productive enough to be a starter. Nelson is an ideal reserve who can give quality minutes in a depth role and can pinch hit as a capable starter for a game or two.

The player to keep an eye on is Watts, who could surprise over the second half of the season and blossom into a starter. Watts brings speed, power and a high motor to the table. It would be a coup if he winds up being a starter opposite Diaby next year, but the Bucs will still need to add another edge rusher in free agency or the draft.

Inside Linebackers

ILB1
ILB2 SirVocea Dennis
ILB3 KJ Britt
ILB4

Bucs LBs Lavonte David and Devin White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Devin White will not return in 2024. Mark it down. He’s been too inconsistent and too soft on defense and wants too much money. His offseason trade request and hold out irked many at One Buc Place, and his play this year hasn’t done anything to change the team’s mind about his future in Tampa Bay.

The Bucs would love to have Lavonte David back at the right price in 2024 for one more year. That would fill in the ILB1 spot on the depth chart and give the defense some leadership and stability. The Bucs definitely need to find a starting-caliber linebacker in free agency or the draft if David doesn’t return.

Tampa Bay is high on Dennis but still doesn’t know what it has in the fifth-round pick, as he missed the last two preseason games due to a hamstring injury.

Britt returns on his contract year and is an ace special teamer.

Cornerbacks

CB1 Jamel Dean
CB2
CB3 Zyon McCollum
CB4 Josh Hayes
CB5

Dean will return in 2024 as he just signed a four-year extension this offseason, but the same can’t be said about Davis, who makes an awful lot of money yet has durability concerns and doesn’t pick off passes. That would leave the Bucs without a starting cornerback.

Some would like McCollum to be a starter in 2024 due to his athletic traits, but he still has a ways to go to be consistent. He’s CB3 again at the very least.

Hayes returns as a special teams demon, as he’s a great gunner. But the Bucs need to add at least two more really good cornerbacks – one with starting potential and one for quality depth.

Safeties

S1
S2
S3 Christian Izien
S4 Kaevon Merriweather
S5

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

Winfield will be re-signed, so the starting free safety spot will be filled. But Ryan Neal won’t be back and that leaves a hole at strong safety that must filled in free agency or the draft.

Izien has had some growing pains as the slot cornerback in nickel defense. It wouldn’t hurt to find a challenger for him in 2024 to see if the nickelback play can be improved. And maybe Izien is a better strong safety instead?

Merriweather has been slow to develop but is a factor on special teams. Regardless, the Bucs will need to add two more safeties in addition to re-signing Winfield in 2024.

FAB 5. Bucs’ Returning Specialists In 2024

It’s simple – kicker Chase McLaughlin needs to be re-signed. Bucs general manager Jason Licht struggled to find a kicker prior to signing Ryan Succop in 2020. Now he’s hit back-to-back home runs with Succop and McLaughlin.

Specialists

K1
P1 Jake Camarda
LS1

Bucs K Chase McLaughlin – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Camarda is a Pro Bowl-caliber punter and one of Licht’s best Day 3 picks in his 10 years as Tampa Bay’s general manager. Now all Licht needs to do is keep McLaughlin as the kicker and re-sign veteran long snapper Zach Triner. Unlike Succop, who was in his mid-30s when he signed with Tampa Bay in 2020, McLaughlin is much younger at 27.

There’s a lot of work to do from a personnel standpoint in Tampa Bay next offseason. Licht and assistant general managers Mike Greenberg and John Spytek will be quite busy. And if the Bucs have to find a new head coach and coaching staff – and possibly a new quarterback – it will be even busier.

With more money to spend to acquire better talent, the Bucs could have a completely different look next year as the team continues to shed players who helped win Super Bowl LV.

And add new players to help them get to the next Super Bowl.