FAB 1. Buckle Up! Busy Bucs Offseason Ahead

I didn’t think the Panthers were going to hire Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales to be their head coach.

I didn’t see it coming – even after Carolina requested a second interview with Canales.

I didn’t see it coming – even after the Panthers hired Dan Morgan as general manager, knowing there was a shared history between the two men who worked together in Seattle from 2010-17.

Just go back to last week’s now-faulty headline in my most recent SR’s Fab 5 column, which read “Bucs Have Their HC, OC And QB For 2024.” I thought Canales needed one more year of experience as a play-caller before taking on the monumental task of leading a team – and calling plays at the same time.

I didn’t think the Falcons would choose Raheem Morris over Bill Belichick to be Atlanta’s head coach. I’m as thrilled for Morris as a I am Canales over the opportunity, but I thought for sure that 81-year old Arthur Blank, who desperately wants to see his Falcons win a Super Bowl in his lifetime, would go for a quick, short-term fix with Belichick.

Panthers head coach Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

I didn’t think the Saints would be considering hiring former Bucs head coach Jon Gruden as their offensive coordinator. But if that happens, all three of the Bucs’ NFC South division rivals would have a significant Tampa Bay tie, which is crazy to think about.

Do you know what’s even crazier? Suppose the last two vacant head coaching jobs in Seattle and Washington get filled, by let’s say, Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn or former Titans head coach Mike Vrabel with the Seahaks, and by Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson with the Commanders.

Would the Bucs decide to move on from head coach Todd Bowles and have the pick of the litter of the remaining top head-coaching candidates who didn’t get hired? As ESPN’s Adam Schefter points out, there are still several noteworthy offensive-minded candidates available. That’s the direction the Bucs would go in if they decided to suddenly jettison Bowles.

Among those on Schefter’s list who could interest the Bucs include Johnson and Houston offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik. But a name not mentioned on the list that could interest Tampa Bay the most is Ravens coordinator Todd Monken, who recently interviewed with Carolina and Atlanta. Monken spent three years in Tampa Bay as the receivers coach (2016-17) coaching Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and as the offensive coordinator and play-caller for one season (2018). The Glazers and general manager Jason Licht know him well.

Former Bucs OC Todd Monken – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The 57-year old Monken won back-to-back national championships in 2021 and 2022 at Georgia and has worked wonders with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense in his first year in Baltimore.

I’m not advocating for Bowles’ firing. I’m actually a fan of Todd Bowles the man and the defensive mind.

But Bowles is about to be on his third offensive coordinator in three seasons. That’s the unfortunate price teams pay for hiring defensive-minded head coaches these days. Everybody wants the hotshot offensive play-caller leading their team, and it comes with a clear advantage – offensive continuity.

The current trend in the NFL is to hire a young offensive coordinator to be a head coach and call plays. Look no further than Canales’ hire in Carolina.

That was also the case in San Francisco with Kyle Shanahan, in Los Angeles with Sean McVay, in Green Bay with Matt LaFleur, in Cincinnati with Zac Taylor, in Miami with Mike McDaniel, in Indianapolis with Shane Steichen, and it’s been that way in Kansas City for 11 years now with Andy Reid, who … isn’t really young – just incredible.

Continuity is king in the NFL, and when a head coach is also the offensive play-caller and has a strong rapport and chemistry with the quarterback, it can lead to a lot of sustained success. Sean Payton had that with Drew Brees and won a Super Bowl in New Orleans and multiple division titles.

Former Titans HC Mike Vrabel – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Mike Holmgren had that with Brett Favre in Green Bay and won a Super Bowl. Mike McCarthy had that in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers and won a Super Bowl after Favre left the Packers. LaFleur had that connection with Rodgers in Green Bay and now has that continuity with Jordan Love, who is Rodgers’ successor.

As defensive-minded head coach Mike Vrabel found out in Tennessee after his offensive coordinator Arthur Smith left in 2021, picking the wrong offensive coordinator can be costly. After Smith’s replacement, Todd Downing, was fired after the Titans went 7-10 in 2022, Vrabel’s next offensive coordinator, Tim Kelly, was just as bad, as Tennessee went 6-11 this past season. That led to Vrabel’s firing this offseason.

I’m not saying Bowles will get fired in the coming days, or that he necessarily deserves to be fired. But the Glazers are usually interested in leveling up when they can.

When they had a chance to get Bill Parcells in the 2002 offseason, they shocked a lot of folks in Tampa and around the NFL when they fired the very popular Tony Dungy after a 9-7 season and three straight playoff appearances from 1999-2001. When Parcells pulled a stunner and ultimately left the Glazers at the alter like a runaway bride, they made a Hail Mary trade for Oakland head coach Jon Gruden and the rest is history.

Then, the Glazers made an even more shocking move when they fired Gruden after a 9-3 start dissolved into a 9-7 finish in 2008 when the Bucs missed the playoffs. Gruden had just been given a lucrative, long-term contract extension in the 2008 offseason, too.

But the 2008 season finale was on Dec. 28 and the Glazers waited until Jan. 16 – 19 days into the offseason! – to fire Gruden and general manager Bruce Allen. Part of the reasoning was that they saw head coaching potential in defensive backs coach Raheem Morris, who was getting interest from Denver, and didn’t want him leaving the franchise.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

In case you’re reading this on Friday, Jan. 26, we’re only five days into the Bucs’ 2024 offseason. So buckle up.

Yeah, I’m a little battle-scarred as a reporter who has covered the Glazers and their unpredictability for 29 years now. I have to be ready for any possible scenario when it comes to this fantastic, yet mercurial ownership family.

There have been plenty of surprises this offseason already around the NFL, such as Pete Caroll’s dismissal in Seattle, Vrabel’s ousting in Tennessee, Canales’ hiring in Carolina, Morris getting the job over Belichick in Atlanta, and the fact that Belichick may not land a head coaching gig at all this year.

What’s one more potential surprise, right?

This is important to keep in mind when digesting all of this: If the Bucs had lost in Carolina in Week 18, Bowles would have been fired.

Losing to the worst team in football to end the season and finishing 8-9 again – this time without the NFC South title and a playoff berth that comes with it – would not have shown the Glazers the necessary progress they were looking for from the 2022 season. And the Glazers really wanted to see a playoff win too, so Bowles barely saved his job with wins against Carolina and Philadelphia at the end of the season.

As it stands now, Bowles is 17-17 in the regular season with a 1-2 record in the postseason – and his failure to call timeout at the end of the playoff loss in Detroit was embarrassing, and did not sit well with some members of the organization. Bowles may not be on the hot seat entering 2024, but he’s not exactly on solid ground, either.

Bucs co-chairmen Bryan Glazer and Joel Glazer – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

It took Bowles until Week 17 to win an NFC South title in a really bad division with Tom Brady in 2022. And it took him until Week 18 to win a downtrodden division again without Brady in 2023.

When the Glazers fired Dungy, he was the all-time winningest head coach in franchise history with a 54-42 record that was 12 wins over .500. When Gruden was fired, he had won a Super Bowl, three NFC South titles and had surpassed Dungy for the most wins in team history.

Should the Bucs choose to move on from Bowles for an offensive-minded coach like Monken, Johnson or Slowik, it would be far less shocking than the dismissals of more accomplished coaches like Dungy and Gruden were in January of 2002 and 2009, respectively.

We’ll see what happens over the next few days and if Bowles is truly safe and gets to hire another offensive coordinator – or if the Glazers decide to make a bold move once the dust settles and there are no more head coaching vacancies for the Bucs to compete with.

Remember, the Bucs’ trade for Gruden didn’t happen until Feb. 18 back in 2002. This is not exactly uncharted waters for the Glazers.

FAB 2. Will Raheem Morris And The Falcons Make A Run At Baker Mayfield?

The Falcons made a great hire with an eye toward long-term success by picking Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris over former Patriots head coach Bill Belichick. Age and longevity had a lot to do with the decision, as Morris, who spent seven years in Tampa Bay, including three years (2009-11) as head coach, is just 47, and Belichick turns 72 in April.

The Falcons finished 7-10 in each of Arthur Smith’s three seasons as head coach. The right head coach can likely take a talented Falcons team to new heights rather quickly.

Rams passing game coordinator Zac Robinson – Photo by: USA Today

As long as Atlanta finds a good quarterback.

That could be Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield, who spent some time with Morris in Los Angeles at the end of the 2022 season during Mayfield’s brief stint with the Rams.

More importantly, Rams quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator Zac Robinson is expected to follow Morris to Atlanta to become the Falcons’ offensive coordinator.

The Falcons know that neither Desmond Ridder nor Taylor Heinicke is the answer at quarterback. Picking eighth overall, Atlanta may not be in position to select one of the top three quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft – USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye or LSU’s Jayden Daniels.

Plus Morris saw the peril of playing a rookie quarterback first-hand during his stint in Tampa Bay as head coach with Josh Freeman, who was the Bucs’ first-round pick in 2009, and may not want to go down that road again.

So that may prompt Atlanta to head to free agency, where Mayfield and Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins are the top two veteran quarterbacks. Cousins turns 36 before the start of the 2024 season and is coming off a midseason Achilles tear. Mayfield will only be 29 in April and is coming off his best season in his six years in the NFL.

If the Falcons want to pursue Mayfield, they will have the cap room to do it. Atlanta currently is at about $25 million and can free up much more room with some restructures. Unlike Tampa Bay, which has a slew of star players slated to hit free agency and need to re-sign, Atlanta doesn’t.

QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

If the Falcons want Mayfield, they can make a serious run at him, which would also mortally wound their division rival in the process. The Bucs have a contract number in mind for Mayfield. Perhaps it’s $25 million per year or close to it.

The Falcons might have to overpay to outbid the Bucs, but he might be the missing piece for Atlanta’s offense, which has a great receiver in Drake London, two quality tight ends in Jonnu Smith and Kyle Pitts, and two fantastic running backs in Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.

With Dave Canales now in Carolina, Mayfield will have a new offensive coordinator and play-caller in Tampa Bay if he elects to re-sign. If it’s quarterbacks coach Thad Lewis, that may help Mayfield’s chances of returning, especially if Lewis continues to run Canales’ system for the sake of continuity.

But with Todd Bowles being on his third offensive coordinator in three years and having a 17-17 record in two seasons as the Bucs head coach, would Mayfield want to re-sign given the uncertainly about long-term continuity in Tampa Bay? Or would Mayfield want to jump ship to Atlanta for the sake of stability, knowing that Morris and Robinson likely aren’t going anywhere for the next couple of years?

That’s something the Bucs’ brass should be concerned about.

Very concerned about.

FAB 3. Raheem Morris Was Falcons’ Right Hire, But It Saved Rich McKay’s Job

Earlier in the week, it seemed as if Bill Belichick was poised to take over as the Falcons head coach. Belichick met privately with Falcons owner Arthur Blank, who is 81 and is desperately seeking to win the franchise’s first Super Bowl sooner rather than later given his age. But Belichick may only coach for two or three years in pursuit of Don Shula’s all-time wins record as a head coach.

Shula logged 328 wins, followed by George Halas’ 318. Belichick isn’t far behind with 302 victories. He’s also got six Super Bowl rings as a head coach and may be more interested in piling up wins rather than winning it all at this stage of his career.

Hiring the legendary Belichick would have been a very short-term proposition in Atlanta. Raheem Morris ultimately got the Falcons head coaching job and is obviously hungry for his first Super Bowl as a head coach. Morris was the best choice for the long run in Atlanta.

Falcons interim head coach Raheem Morris – Photo by: USA Today

This is Morris’ second stint with the franchise, as he served as the Falcons assistant head coach, passing game coordinator and wide receivers coach under Dan Quinn from 2015-19. Then, he was the team’s defensive coordinator in 2020 and took over as interim head coach during that season after Quinn was fired.

But even though giving Morris a second shot as an NFL head coach was the right call by the Falcons, it was also a very self-serving call by Falcons CEO Rich McKay. I don’t agree with a lot of what Pro Football Talk Mike Florio has to say, but I think he’s spot on with his recent assessment of the situation in Atlanta.

“There was one big potential complication from the Falcons potentially hiring Bill Belichick. What would have happened to team CEO Rich McKay?
 
Currently, both the coach and G.M. of the Falcons report to McKay. Belichick surely would not have wanted that. Beyond the fact that he has reported directly to ownership for years, McKay and Belichick have not seen eye to eye on matters with the purview of the Competition Committee, which McKay chairs.
 
With the Falcons hiring Raheem Morris, McKay wins. He won’t be reassigned. He won’t be neutralized. He won’t be discarded. McKay will remain in that sweet spot of running the show but having no real accountability. (It’s a great gig if you can get it.)”

When McKay was the general manager in Tampa Bay from 1994-2003, he took a lot of the credit for the work that others did. Former Bucs head coach Sam Wyche was actually the one who drafted future Hall of Famers John Lynch, Warren Sapp and Derrick Brooks – not McKay.

In fact, McKay was not much of a personnel man at all. Jerry Angelo and Tim Ruskell were the real scouts and personnel men in Tampa Bay during McKay’s tenure. And it was John Idzik who was the Bucs’ capologist.

Falcons CEO Rich McKay and owner Arthur Blank – Photo by: USA Today

McKay just oversaw the entire operation, but he does deserve credit for working with Tony Dungy to help lift the Bucs out of the abyss in the late 1990s. And McKay does deserve credit for working with Jon Gruden to help the Bucs win their first Super Bowl in 2002 before a rift developed between he and Gruden that led to McKay’s departure to Atlanta in 2003.

McKay is more of a politician than a football guy, and he loves the media spotlight – hence his gig on the NFL Competition Committee. McKay’s best work with the Bucs was actually working as a politician with real Hillsborough County politicians to get Raymond James Stadium built to make the Glazers happy and keep the franchise in Tampa.

Blank quickly found out that McKay was not a good G.M. on the football side of the operation, essentially booting him upstairs in 2008 to become the team president and CEO and hiring Thomas Dimitroff as general manager to replace him. McKay wound up doing what he does best, which was to help Blank and the Falcons build a new $1.2 billion stadium in downtown Atlanta, which opened in 2017.

McKay remains in the Falcons organization because Belichick was ultimately not hired. Had Belichick come to Atlanta, he likely would have wanted the role of president as well as head coach.

Most politicians come across as slick and are self-serving individuals. McKay is no different in this instance.

FAB 4. Will Dave Canales Succeed In Carolina?

Dave Canales’ best trait is believability. He has an uncanny knack for making people believe in him and his vision. That’s what will make the charismatic new head coach of the Panthers successful in Carolina – if he’s given time by David Tepper, the most impatient owner in the NFL.

Tepper, who infamously threw a drink on Jaguars fans from his luxury suite in Jacksonville while watching his team lose last December, has gone through four head coaches in two years. First he fired Matt Rhule and then interim head coach Steve Wilks in 2022. Then this past season he fired new head coach Frank Reich and then interim head coach Chris Tabor before hiring Canales.

Thank goodness Canales just got a six-year deal in Carolina, so if Tepper has a quick trigger finger again at least Canales will make millions with a guaranteed contract that is probably five years with a team option for the sixth year.

Bucs OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Matt Matera/PR

Canales has a strong ally in the building in new general manager Dan Morgan, a former Panthers linebacker who spent eight years with Canales in Seattle as a member of the personnel department. But Morgan won’t act as much of a buffer between Canales and Tepper, as both men will independently report to the owner.

Coming off a 2-15 season, Carolina is easily the worst franchise in the league. Outside of quarterback Bryce Young, last year’s first overall pick, and right tackle Taylor Moton, the Panthers don’t have much talent on offense. But Canales knows the wide receiver and quarterback positions intimately. He’ll develop Young into a good quarterback and be able to find some good receivers in free agency and the draft.

Canales will be handicapped by the fact that the team doesn’t have a first-round pick this year or a second-round pick in 2025 from last year’s trade with the Bears for the first overall pick. But he does have charm, a vision and believability, which will greatly help him land free agents in the coming years.

I thought Canales wanted to go the Ben Johnson route. I was wrong. It’s easy to say you aren’t really interested in a head coaching job – until it’s actually offered to you along with a six-year contract worth millions of dollars.

The good news for Canales is that anything more than two wins this season will be viewed as progress, so the bar has been set pretty low. If Morgan can buy him some time with Tepper, Canales can eventually build the Panthers into a winner – or at least a formidable team in the NFC South.

I am still a bit surprised that Canales took the job, as I thought he wanted to go the Ben Johnson route and stay in Tampa Bay to build his system and learn the art of play-calling one more year before taking on the rigors of running an entire team. I was wrong.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

It’s easy for someone like Canales to say he wants to stay in Tampa Bay and that he really isn’t interested in a head coaching job – until it’s actually offered up along with a six-year contract worth millions of dollars.

Aiding Canales right now is the fact that the Seahawks fired their coaching staff when Pete Carroll was let go, so there are a lot of familiar faces that are available to join his staff in Carolina. I think that played a big factor too, as a head coach is only as good as his staff.

Dave Canales is a great human being and he did a very good job in developing Baker Mayfield and helping the Bucs win the NFC South and a playoff game this year. I certainly wish him well dealing with Tepper, who does not have a great reputation as an owner.

FAB 5. Will The Bucs Get Compensatory Picks For Losing Dave Canales?

Losing Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales to Carolina, where he will be the Panthers head coach, was a gut punch to the organization on Thursday. Still reeling from Sunday’s 31-23 playoff loss at Detroit, the Bucs’ brass and coaching staff were floored when Canales left for a division rival.

Bucs WRs coach Brad Idzik and OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Not only could his departure mean that a few Bucs assistants – possibly good friend and wide receivers coach Brad Idzik and/or quarterbacks coach Thad Lewis – follow Canales to Carolina, but it could mean that Baker Mayfield explores other options rather than re-signing with Tampa Bay. Especially if Rams passing game coordinator and QBs coach Zac Robinson follows Raheem Morris to Atlanta as expected.

So is there any way Tampa Bay can benefit from Canales leaving, perhaps picking up some compensatory picks from the NFL with the Panthers hiring a minority candidate from the Bucs staff? After all, Canales is Mexican-American.

Pewter Report was posed that question by Jamie Miles, a Bucs fan, on social media on Thursday.

That passage is from a USA Today article on compensatory picks that reads:

“However, the NFL began awarding compensatory picks in 2020 to teams who lost a minority coach or top football executive to another team. The awarded teams are given third-round selections in each of the next two drafts or each of the next three drafts if two minority employees are hired by another team. These are special comp picks not beholden to the limit of 32.”

Bucs OC Dave Canales and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The only problem is that the fine print of the NFL rule on compensatory picks from minorities that leave to work with other teams is that that person must be employed by the team for at least two years. Canales was only in Tampa Bay for one year, so the Bucs will not be getting a third-round compensatory pick in the 2024 and 2025 NFL Drafts, unfortunately.

That fine print stipulation is in the NFL operating manual and rule book, but wasn’t mentioned in the USA Today article. Had the Bucs gotten a few extra mid-round picks, it might have softened the blow of losing Canales a bit, but alas that’s not the case.

The Bucs’ 2024 offseason just got a lot busier for general manager Jason Licht and his staff, who will have to assist head coach Todd Bowles in another offensive coordinator search for the second straight year.

Unless, of course, the franchise suddenly decides to do a shocking complete reboot of the coaching staff.

Then, the Bucs’ 2024 offseason will go from being busy to crazy in an instant.