It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ post-game 2-Point Conversion column, which features two big statements, two probing questions and two bold predictions. The Bucs dropped to 3-3 after a humiliating, 20-18 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday. The Bucs’ underachieving offense was an absolute mess, and the defense couldn’t stop the Steelers from converting four straight third-and-long situations.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1: Bucs OC Leftwich Is Getting Exposed

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles isn’t going to make a change at offensive coordinator after Sunday’s 20-18 loss at Pittsburgh. But he should.

Byron Leftwich is being exposed as a mediocre-at-best play-caller. Leftwich’s play-calling in Pittsburgh was just awful.

On second-and-goal from the one-foot line, Leftwich called for pulling the play-side guard Luke Goedeke and for center Robert Hainsey to cut block defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi. When Hainsey missed the cut block, Ogunjobi shot through the massive hole created when Goedeke pulled.

Bucs LG Luke Goedeke and Steelers DT Cameron Heyward – Photo by: USA Today

If the Bucs are going to pull a guard down at the 1-yard line, why not pull the back-side guard Shaq Mason over to the play-side instead and create a numbers advantage?

Just a dumb play call.

Why even run to the left behind Goedeke, who consistently lost his matchup against Pittsburgh’s defensive tackle Cameron Heyward all day? The Bucs did that on a third-and-1 in the second half and got stuffed.

Isn’t Shaq Mason the best guard on the team? Isn’t right tackle Tristan Wirfs the All-Pro? Maybe try running behind your best players – and away from Heyward, Pittsburgh’s best defensive player – when you need a yard?

“We’ve got to find a way to score in the red zone,” Bowles said. “We’ve got to find a way to score in the red zone – and more importantly, we’ve got to find a way to be better in short yardage. Third-and-1 and fourth-and-inches, we have to find a way to be better.”

Another dumb play call. There were plenty of others, but you suffered enough watching the offense struggle to convert 4-of-14 on third down, so I won’t make you re-live the nightmare in Pittsburgh.

Six games into the 2022 season and the Bucs are averaging 20.2 points per game. That’s roughly 10 points less than Tampa Bay averaged in each of the last two years. And the Bucs still have QB Tom Brady, a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and a better-than-average back in Leonard Fournette to work with.

Bucs OC Byron Leftwich and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

“I’m dissatisfied with a lot of things,” Bowles said when asked about whether he is satisfied or disappointed with Leftwich’s play-calling. “Winning is number one, and it’s not about the play calling, it’s all inclusive. Players have to execute what the coaches call, and coaches have to make sure that player is in the right position to call it. We don’t throw blame anywhere. It’s all inclusive – it’s offense, defense and special teams when we have a bad game. It’s not even about play-calling, it’s just about team.”

The 3-3 Bucs have 11 games left in the season. And Bowles is likely thinking it’s too early to push the panic button (it’s not). The offense is still learning how to navigate without future Hall of Famer tight end Rob Gronkowski and Pro Bowl left guard Ali Marpet, both of whom are retired, and Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen.

Tampa Bay is playing four rookies on offense – left guard Luke Goedeke, running back Rachaad White and tight ends Cade Otton and Ko Kieft – on the regular. There are some inevitable growing pains with rookies, even with new center Robert Hainsey, who just started his sixth NFL game.

But this is an offense that has scored 19 points at Dallas, 13 points at New Orleans and 12 points versus Green Bay before erupting for 31 while playing from behind against Kansas City. Last week, Tampa Bay scored 21 points in a win against Atlanta and then just 18 points against an undermanned and overmatched Pittsburgh team.

Instead of relying on Brady, Evans and Godwin to score touchdowns, the Bucs are relying too much on kicker Ryan Succop, who has clearly been the most consistent player in Tampa Bay. That’s not necessarily a good thing – except for Succop’s stellar performance.

Much to Bruce Arians’ chagrin, there’s a reason why Leftwich didn’t get much play as a head coaching candidate around the league over the last couple of years. NFL teams looked at Arians’ protégé and wondered how much of the Bucs’ offensive success could be attributed Arians himself, as he was looking over Leftwich’s shoulder from 2019-21, how much was a product of Brady, Gronkowski, Evans and the host of Pro Bowlers on offense, and how much was actually Leftwich’s play-calling ability.

Bucs OC Byron Leftwich – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

With Arians retired from coaching and half of the key players from the Super Bowl either retired or out of action, Leftwich’s lack of creativity and lack of timely, successful play calls is being exposed for all to see.

Evans getting just four targets – including one in the second half! – against a Steelers secondary that was missing four of five starters is just criminal negligence. That’s inexcusable.

“We definitely talked about that,” Bowles said. “We’ve got to find a way to get our stars the ball. Move them around, get them off picks, double [teams] – we have to find a way to get them the ball more. Obviously teams are going to try to double him and take him away more; we have to do a better job of getting him the ball.”

Unfortunately, I don’t see it getting much better this year either with Leftwich at the helm. There might be an instance or two this season where the Bucs can manage 30 points in a game if everything goes right. But Sunday at Pittsburgh against a banged-up Steelers defense should have been one of those days.

Instead, the Bucs managed only 18 points and really exposed Leftwich’s ineptitude as a play-caller.

STATEMENT 2: Bucs Need To Bench Goedeke

Rookie left guard Luke Goedeke struggled mightily against Steelers five-time Pro Bowler Cameron Heyward on Sunday. This was to be expected because Goedeke has struggled all year, and was coming off his worst game against Atlanta’s Pro Bowler, Grady Jarrett, last week.

Heyward got a key third down sack in the red zone, which cost the Bucs four points as the team had to settle for a field goal. Quarterback Tom Brady lit into Goedeke and the offensive line afterwards, and rightly so.

Bucs LG Luke Goedeke and Falcons DT Grady Jarrett – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

It’s time to sit Goedeke – for his own sake and the team’s sake. His technique is not good, especially in pass protection, where he has the third-lowest pass blocking grade of any guard in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.

The fact that the Bucs keep trotting him out to start every game while he makes costly errors on third down in either running or passing downs is quite damning on the offensive coaches. Either that, or backups Brandon Walton and Nick Leverett must be really bad.

But at this point, I’d rather give either one a try and give Goedeke a week or two off just to watch and learn from the sidelines. Goedeke might be a really good starter in time, but right now he’s hurting the offense. That’s just a fact.

Ronde Barber had an absolutely awful rookie season and still turned into a Hall of Fame caliber player. Even Alex Cappa struggled in his first year as a starter and then developed into a capable NFL starter. Right now, Goedeke is worse than Cappa was as a rookie.

For Goedeke’s own developmental sake, don’t crush the kid’s confidence by continuing to play him when it’s obvious he’s not ready. Give Walton or Leverett a try.

What do the Bucs have to lose right now at left guard?

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1: Would Bowles Turn To Arians As A Play-Caller?

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles isn’t going to replace Byron Leftwich as the team’s play-caller – at least not after six games. But if I was Bowles, I would certainly consider it, and the ideal replacement candidate is in the building.

Bucs head coach Bruce Arians, OC Byron Leftwich and QB Tom Brady – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

No, it’s not QBs coach Clyde Christensen, who has previous play-calling experience. And not wide receivers coach Kevin Garver, who is viewed as an up-and-comer and a possible NFL offensive coordinator down the road. The same could be said for assistant receivers coach Thaddeus Lewis.

It’s actually retired head coach Bruce Arians. No one on this staff can come close to Arians in terms of his play-calling track record. He’s the architect of the offense currently being run – and the one that has generated roughly 30 points per game from 2019-21.

So, would Bowles ever turn to Arians if it got to the point where in his mind he had to replace Leftwich? He should, but I’m not sure Arians would do it. He has a sense of loyalty to Leftwich, who has been his personal developmental protégé, and replacing him is the last thing Arians would want to do because that means Leftwich ultimately failed.

Yet, Arians has a sense of loyalty to Bowles, too. He coached Bowles back at Temple and has coached with him for years. Bowles was Arians’ hand-picked successor – not Leftwich.

If Bowles were to turn to Arians at some point down the stretch to take over the play-calling duties, it would undoubtedly put Arians in a loyalty bind of some kind. But there’s no doubt that Arians would do a better job, and that’s what Bowles ultimately has to consider.

QUESTION 2: What’s Going Through Brady’s Mind Right Now?

This season has to be a nightmare for quarterback Tom Brady. He’s going through a very public, high-profile divorce and his desire to return to football this year at age 45 has obviously played a role in his troubled marriage. His tormented love for football has caused issues for the loved ones in his family. That has to be tough.

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

But Brady has to be shell-shocked at how poorly the Bucs offense has played this year. Tampa Bay is averaging 10 points less per game and is now 3-3 after losing a winnable game at Pittsburgh against a wounded Steelers team.

The play-calling is suspect, the execution is horrendous at times and even Brady isn’t playing his best football this season. He has to be wondering if returning to the Bucs for one more season was worth it?

The football field has always been Brady’s sanctuary. It’s been a place where his competitive juices could flow and his mastery of the game could give him peace and the thrill of victory. As the best quarterback of all time, Brady is in complete control on the football field, whereas he may not control certain things off the field.

Brady and his teams have been excellent for years and that has given him joy and satisfaction. The 3-3 Bucs are a mediocre football team and a disjointed mess on offense. The gridiron is no longer a peaceful sanctuary. On Sunday in Pittsburgh, it was a place of turmoil.

Despite his legendary exploits on the field in the past and his icon status in the NFL and the sports world in general, Brady is still a human being. He’s used to feeling elation and satisfaction from winning and his personal success and team success. That’s not happening for Brady this year, and it has to be a bit devastating given all that he is going through off the field, too.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1: Bucs Offense Continues To Struggle

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

I hope I’m wrong about this, Bucs fans. Carolina is a team in distress right now after firing head coach Matt Rhule and defensive coordinator Phil Snow. The Panthers are allowing an average of 24.3 points per game. They’ve surrendered 26 points to Arizona, 37 points to San Francisco and 24 points to the L.A. Rams, while averaging just 17.2 points per game.

But the Steelers came into last Sunday’s game averaging just 15.2 points per game and still out-scored the Bucs, 20-18. The problem isn’t the defenses that the Bucs offense is facing. The problem is the Bucs offense continuing to suffer from poor play-calling and execution. If the Bucs score 24 points at Carolina, I’ll be shocked.

PREDICTION 2: Humbled Bucs Win In Carolina

No matter how many – or few – points the Bucs score against the Panthers, they’ll win in Carolina. Let’s hope that the humbling 20-18 loss to the Steelers was the wake-up call this team needed.

A win against the Panthers puts the Bucs back above .500 with a 4-3 record. But more importantly, it gives Tampa Bay a key 3-0 lead in the NFC South division.