Is Todd Bowles the man who can lead the Bucs to the Super Bowl and win it?

After Sunday’s 23-20 home loss to Washington in the Wild Card round of the playoffs that is the question that the Bucs owners – the Glazer family – and general manager Jason Licht need to ask themselves heading into the 2025 offseason.

If the answer is a firm “yes,” then Bowles stays on to try to lead this franchise to yet another NFC South championship in what would be his fourth year steering the Bucs’ ship. Hopefully with Liam Coen still aboard as his offensive coordinator. Coen is expected to interview for the vacant head coaching position in Jacksonville this week.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

But if the answer is “no” – or even “we’re not sure” – then it’s time to move on.

That means firing Bowles despite the fact that Bowles has a 27-24 record (.529) in Tampa Bay, and is the only coach in team history to win three straight NFC South titles in his first three years as head coach. Sunday’s loss to the Commanders gave us all reasons to question whether Bowles is the right man for the job.

The Bucs had just 44 plays on offense compared to the Commanders’ 69 plays. Bowles’ defense failed to get off the field, giving Washington almost an 11-minute time of possession advantage. That’s nearly an entire quarter.

That’s crazy considering that the Commanders only ran for 82 yards on 33 carries (2.5 avg.). It wasn’t ball control due to a strong Washington ground game. But rather it was the fact that Bowles’ unit simply could not make the plays necessary to get off the field on third downs or fourth downs that was the most damning aspect in the playoff loss.

“Defensively that’s where it was,” Bowles said. “[Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels] was making some plays with his feet. We would be in position; he out-athleted us and they did a good job on third down and keeping it in third and short and him making plays.”

Washington didn’t punt once, and converted 8-of-15 (53.3%) on third downs and 3-of-5 (60%) on fourth downs.

Commanders WR Terry McLaurin and Bucs CB Josh Hayes – Photo by: USA Today

There were also questionable clock management/timeout usage instances that showed up again at the end of the first half and at the end of the game. Bowles has struggled in this area throughout his three years as Tampa Bay’s head coach.

And the Bucs defense once again failed to generate a takeaway – something that has plagued Bowles’ unit all season.

“We got to make plays, we have to go for the ball,” Bowles said. “Obviously there’s a different guy starting back there every week. It can be a myriad of things. The bottom line is we got to get turnovers.”

It didn’t help that the Bucs lost starting cornerback Jamel Dean in the second half to a recurring knee injury. That forced second-year cornerback Josh Hayes back into the lineup where he surrendered a 5-yard touchdown to Terry McLaurin on fourth-and-goal, which gave Washington a 20-17 lead. Then Hayes allowed Dyami Brown to catch a key 21-yard pass across the middle on a key third-and-6 from the Washington 34 with 3:20 left. An incompletion there would have led to a punt.

After Tampa Bay tied the game at 20-20 with 4:41 remaining in regulation, Bowles’ defense could not get a stop to force or a punt or create a turnover. Daniels and the Commanders marched 51 yards on 10 plays to kick the game-winning field goal as time expired.

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels and Bucs DT Calijah Kancey – Photo by: USA Today

Too often we’ve seen Bowles’ defense be the culprit in losses during the 2024 season. Failing to get stops in regulation and in a 36-30 overtime in a loss at Atlanta, and in overtime in a 30-24 defeat at Kansas City. Also failing to prevent San Francisco from marching down the field to kick the game-winning field goal in a 23-20 loss prior to the bye week.

Defensive tackle Calijah Kancey had a chance to tackle Daniels on third-and-2 at the Tampa Bay 19, but just missed, allowing the rookie QB to pick up the first down and run the clock down to allow a 37-yard field goal as time expired. Had Kancey made that play, the Commanders would have had to kick a field goal with 50 seconds left, leaving Tampa Bay some time to make one last drive for what could have been a game-tying field goal.

Yet once again Bowles’ defense failed to make the big play at the end when needed.

“Sometimes it’s just making plays; sometimes we’re in position,” Bowles said. “Calijah had them on the [third-] down play. We lost that one. It’s just making plays. We got to make plays.”

Coen didn’t call a great game, the Bucs offense didn’t play well, and there were some untimely mistakes and execution errors on that side of the ball, including a fumbled handoff on an end-around between Baker Mayfield and receiver Jalen McMillan deep in their own territory. But the offense has worn the superhero cape all season in Tampa Bay, while there has been a notable regression on Bowles’ side of the ball in 2024.

Bucs OC Liam Coen, QB Baker Mayfield and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Coen’s offense has scored at least 20 points in all but one game – a 26-7 loss to Denver in Week 3. But on a playoff weekend where the Texans defense came up with interceptions and held the Chargers to 12 points, the Ravens defense held the Steelers to only two touchdowns, the Bills defense was dominant in holding the Broncos to just one touchdown, and the Eagles allowed just 10 points to the Packers and picked off Jordan Love three times, Bowles’ Bucs defense couldn’t follow suit and hold the Commanders to 14 points or less.

The Glazers and Licht must ask themselves if Bowles is the right person to fix the league’s 31st-ranked pass defense. Can Tampa Bay generate more than a paltry seven interceptions in 2025?

Will Bowles do what’s necessary and fire several of his defensive assistants, including outside linebackers coach George Edwards, cornerbacks coach Kevin Ross and safeties coach Nick Rapone? There has been a notable regression in those areas of the defense this year.

If the answer to any of those questions is “no” then perhaps it’s time to move on from their 61-year old defensive-minded head coach and join the league-wide trend of hiring offensive-minded head coaches. Of the six teams that have fired head coaches this year, five were defensive-minded.

The Bucs need to ensure Coen does not leave for a head-coaching job elsewhere, even if it means replacing Bowles with Coen. The 39-year old offensive coordinator turned Tampa Bay’s worst-ranked running game into a Top 10 attack, and the Bucs were fourth in points scored this season with 29.5 points per game.

Coen could be the next Sean McVay, Matt LeFleur or Kyle Shanhan, and Tampa Bay simply can’t afford to let him go.

Bowles, who is now 1-3 in the playoffs, has looked like the next Lovie Smith at times with how his defense has under-performed this season.

There Is Precedence For The Bucs To Fire Todd Bowles

Former Bucs head coach Jon Gruden and co-chariman Joel Glazer – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

It will be interesting to see what will happen regarding Todd Bowles’ future in Tampa Bay. We may know Bowles’ fate soon – or it may take some time for the Glazers and Jason Licht to deliberate.

Jon Gruden was fired 19 days after the 2008 season concluded on January 16. Bruce Arians retired two weeks into free agency on March 30, turning the team over to Bowles back in 2022.

In my 30 years of covering the Bucs I’ve seen the Glazers fire Tony Dungy, the architect of the franchise’s turnaround, after three straight playoff appearances from 1999-2001. Dungy had a better record at 54-42 and a better winning percentage than Bowles at .563 and was still let go. Like Bowles, Dungy was a very well-respected leader of men.

I’ve also seen the Glazers fire Gruden, the man who replaced Dungy and won the first Super Bowl in team history. The Glazers traded two first-round picks, two second-round picks and $8 million cash to Oakland for Gruden, who won three NFC South titles during his time as head coach from 2002-08.

Yet Gruden was fired after a 9-3 start fizzled into a 9-7 finish thanks to a four-game losing streak, just missing out on the playoffs in 2008. Gruden had just surpassed Dungy in terms of the most wins in franchise history that year, finishing with a 57-55 record (.509).

And prior to the start of the 2008 season, Gruden was given a lucrative contract extension through 2011. The Glazers moved on from Gruden despite having to pay him millions of dollars per his guaranteed contract for the next three years.

My point is, if you think Bowles is safe just because he’s won three straight division titles, I’ll remind you that the Glazers have fired the two most successful coaches in Tampa Bay history prior to Bruce Arians – the one who turned the franchise around and the one who cost a king’s ransom but delivered the first Super Bowl in Bucs history.

Did Todd Bowles’ Bucs Actually Improve In 2024?

Bucs GM Jason Licht, co-owners Darcie Glazer Kassewitz and Joel Glazer, head coach Todd Bowles and senior football consultant Bruce Arians – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Glazers said they wanted to see improvement from the Bucs this season. Did that happen?

Yes, the Bucs won one more game and got to 10 regular season wins, but wound up losing another home Wild Card game, as they did in 2022 during Todd Bowles’ first season as head coach. Last year Tampa Bay only won nine games in the regular season, but won their home Wild Card game and advanced to the NFC Divisional round before falling in Detroit.

How do the Glazers and Jason Licht square up Bowles and the Bucs’ 2024 season?

Was there actual progress or not?

Bowles is truly a great man, who has done a lot of very good things in Tampa Bay, including helping the team win Super Bowl LV by beating Kansas City, 32-9, with a defensive masterpiece of a game plan as Arians’ defensive coordinator. He held the team together despite an turmoil-filled 8-9 season in 2022, and Bowles has also brought the team back from a pair of 4-6 deficits in each of the last two years to win the NFC South with strong finishes.

But looking ahead to the 2025 season, the Glazers and Licht must not fixate on what Bowles has done for the team in the past. Rather, they must try to forecast what Bowles will do for the franchise in the future.

And right now the forecast looks cloudy.