Coming off back-to-back home losses to the Ravens and Falcons, things don’t get any easier for the Bucs in Week 9 as they head to Kansas City to take on the back-to-back Super Bowl champion Chiefs on Monday Night Football.

After those two home losses, Tampa Bay heads back on the road reeling a bit. The offense lost Mike Evans and Chris Godwin two weeks ago, but it still managed to put up 24 of the team’s 26 points in that game. The larger problem in recent weeks has been Todd Bowles’ defense, which has allowed 36, 27, 41 and 31 points in the last four games. Coming up against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs isn’t what you would call a cure to those defensive woes.

Plus, as a result of last week’s loss, the Bucs have very little room for error as far as the NFC South race goes. The Falcons hold the tiebreakers over them, which means Bowles and Co. are going to have to finish with more wins than the Dirty Birds to win a fourth straight division title. Otherwise, the fate of the team’s playoff streak lies within a crowded NFC Wild Card race.

After this trip to Kansas City, Tampa Bay is back home to host San Francisco before a much-needed bye week. The general expectation seems to be that the guys in red, white and pewter will drop both of these games, so finding a way to even split them and head into the bye at 5-5 would feel like a bonus. And who knows? Beat Mahomes and the Chiefs and you give yourself an opportunity to head into the week off on a high with two straight wins over top teams and a 6-4 record.

The Last Time…

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs and Chiefs last met in October of 2022, when Kansas City came to Raymond James Stadium for the first time since Super Bowl LV. This time around for Tampa Bay, it didn’t go well. Rachaad White fumbled on the opening kickoff, the Chiefs quickly went up 7-0 and eventually took a 21-3 lead from there. The Bucs got within 28-17 before halftime, but they allowed 10 straight after the break before ultimately losing 41-31.

Patrick Mahomes threw for three touchdowns in that game, while Travis Kelce dominated to the tune of nine catches for 92 yards and a touchdown. The Bucs offense eventually got going, with Tom Brady throwing for three touchdowns himself and Mike Evans catching eight passes for 103 yards and two touchdowns, but it wasn’t enough as the deficit grew too large and the defense had no answers.

As a result of playing from behind from the start, the Tampa Bay offense had zero balance as Brady threw the ball 52 times while White and Leonard Fournette combined for just six rushing attempts.

The all-time regular season series between the two teams is knotted at 7-7, though the Bucs obviously won the lone playoff meeting with that 31-9 victory in Super Bowl LV.

How The Bucs And Chiefs Are Trending

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs are in danger of falling into the same midseason lull that sent them into a 4-7 hole last year. In 2023, Tampa Bay started 3-1 before losing four straight and six of its next seven games. Todd Bowles’ team was 4-2 through six games this season, but it lost home games in Weeks 7 and 8 and now faces both of the participants from last season’s Super Bowl before a Week 11 bye.

The losses of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin certainly hurt and will continue to hurt, though the offense will at least get Evans back in a few weeks. With that being said, though, the Bucs offense actually fared pretty well in its first game without the top two receivers in franchise history last week. As Bowles said himself after the game, 26 points should be enough to win the game. An early Rachaad White fumble and two Baker Mayfield interceptions didn’t help, but the bigger concern for Tampa Bay right now seems to be its defense.

The Bucs are near the bottom of the league in just about every defensive category, which is a huge blemish on Bowles’ record considering he’s a defensive head coach, he calls the defense and he has a reputation for being a defensive mastermind. The troubling thing for this unit is that there isn’t any help readily on the way. The front seven is mostly at full strength, save for SirVocea Dennis. There just isn’t enough pass rush right now, and both K.J. Britt and Lavonte David are playing subpar football.

The secondary is likely to get rookie nickelback Tykee Smith (concussion) back this week, plus cornerback Jamel Dean is still going to return later this season. But there are some problems within this Bucs defense that Bowles has to fix regardless. He won’t have an easy time getting that side of the ball ready for these next two offenses, but he’ll need to find a way to muster something up or else his seat will begin to warm once again.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes – Photo by: USA Today

As for the Chiefs, everything is pretty much smooth sailing for the defending back-to-back Super Bowl champions. They’re 7-0, and while they actually have yet to play a really good game this year, they’re finding ways to win. Five of their seven wins are by a single score, with the other two being by 13 (against the Saints) and 10 (over the 49ers).

The interesting (and perhaps scary) thing about Kansas City’s undefeated season so far is that the normally superhuman Patrick Mahomes isn’t even playing that well. He has thrown just eight touchdowns to nine interceptions this year, and Travis Kelce is the team’s leading receiver with only 38 catches for 335 yards (8.8 avg.) and one touchdown.

The Chiefs offense has been dealt some unfortunate injuries, as running back Isiah Pacheco is on injured reserve, as are wide receivers Rashee Rice (whose season is over), Hollywood Brown and Skyy Moore. The team did sign Kareem Hunt to bolster its backfield and recently traded for DeAndre Hopkins to give Mahomes a true No. 1 wide receiver with Rice out. But this is a unit that hasn’t been at its best so far. But again, this is still a 7-0 team.

A lot of the Chiefs’ success this season comes down to its defense, which is easily a top-five unit in the league. Chris Jones and George Karlaftis lead the group with three sacks apiece, while linebacker Nick Bolton has been huge with seven tackles for loss and three passes defensed. Kansas City only has five interceptions on the year (from five different defenders), but the most points allowed by the defending champs thus far was 25 to the Bengals in Week 2. That’s the only time this season that a team has broken 21 points against them.

Bucs Offense: 4th in scoring offense (29.4 PPG), 4th in total offense (389.5 yards per game), 2nd in passing offense (258.5 yards per game), 10th in rushing offense (131.0 yards per game)

Chiefs Offense: 9th in scoring offense (24.4 PPG), 11th in total offense (348.0 yards per game), 12th in passing offense (225.9 yards per game), 13th in rushing offense (122.1 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: 28th in scoring defense (26.6 points allowed per game), 30th in total defense (387.0 yards allowed per game), 29th in passing defense (255.4 yards allowed per game), 20th in run defense (131.6 yards allowed per game)

Chiefs Defense: 5th in scoring defense (17.6 points allowed per game), 5th in total defense (295.0 yards allowed per game), 17th in passing defense (212.7 yards allowed per game), 2nd in run defense (82.3 yards allowed per game)

As of Thursday night, the Chiefs were 9-point favorites, with the Over/Under set at 46 points (per BetUS).

What Might Decide This Bucs-Chiefs Matchup?

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

On offense for Tampa Bay, there may once again be a lot of pressure on the backfield to do its part. The duo of Rachaad White and Bucky Irving played well last week against Atlanta, but it would help to get Sean Tucker more involved as the unit leans on the run in the absence of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Irving has been especially impressive on the ground this season, as he leads the team with 395 yards on 76 carries (5.2 avg.). The rookie has the highest Missed Tackle Force Rate in the NFL at 44.7%, and he’s coming off a game in which he forced seven missed tackles.

It can’t be all on the backfield trio, of course, especially considering the Chiefs defense is ranked second against the run this season. The Bucs still managed to run the ball well against the top-ranked Ravens unit a couple of weeks ago, but there will still be plenty on Baker Mayfield‘s shoulders as he plays another game without Evans and Godwin. Avoiding turnovers is a must as he continues to lean on the likes of Cade Otton, Sterling Shepard, Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan.

For Tampa Bay’s defense, the key is to not only get pressure on Patrick Mahomes, but finishing and bringing him down for sacks. Mahomes is as shifty as they come, as he’ll both take off when the running lanes are there as well as extending plays and finding open receivers. There’s certainly going to be some fear that he’ll be able to pick apart this Bucs defense, especially over the middle of the field where it’s been most vulnerable. But disrupting him and actually getting to him for sacks – and maybe forcing some turnovers – may be the only way this unit survives this one.

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

For the Chiefs offense, the middle of the field is likely going to be there for the taking again. K.J. Britt has been among the worst linebackers in the NFL this year, especially in coverage, while it’s becoming clearer that even the legendary Lavonte David can’t escape Father Time. Mahomes, like Kirk Cousins did in both meetings with the Bucs this year, is likely going to find plenty of space in this defense. It’s just on him to avoid making any costly mistakes, and he’ll need more than just Travis Kelce to step up in the passing game.

Getting more out of its run game could be another key for Kansas City in this one, as the injury to Pacheco has led to some problems in that department. Rookie Carson Steele has just 140 yards on 41 carries (3.4 avg.), in seven games, which is why the team added Kareem Hunt back into the mix. In four games, Hunt has 308 yards and four touchdowns on 84 carries (3.7 avg.). Tampa Bay’s run defense hasn’t been great this year, so there may be some opportunity for the Chiefs to exploit that on Monday night.

Defensively, the Chiefs can win this game by committing to stopping the run and forcing Mayfield to try to beat them with his arm. Because of the depleted receiving corps, stopping White, Irving and Tucker on the ground could lead to some major success on defense as Mayfield has thrown more interceptions as of late and currently leads the league in that category. A couple more picks in this one very likely would swing the game firmly in the Chiefs’ favor.

Key Players To Watch

Bucs TE Cade Otton – Photo by: USA Today

Cade Otton might be at the point where he’s worked himself into being Baker Mayfield‘s No. 1 target with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sidelined. He had his first career 100-yard game two weeks ago, then he followed that up in Week 8 on National Tight Ends Day with a big performance in which he caught nine passes for 82 yards and two touchdowns. Mayfield clearly trusts him, as the two have a rapport that really started coming together in the playoffs last year. Might Otton even outshine the bigger-name tight end in this matchup? Time will tell.

The Bucs need more from Yaya Diaby. He has just two sacks on the year after totaling 7.5 in more limited action as a rookie last year. The lack of consistency from the team’s other outside linebackers makes it even more pressing for Diaby to convert his pressures into sacks, and that’s especially the case in this one. He can chase Patrick Mahomes all he wants, but Mahomes can play out of structure and make throws on the run. Tampa Bay needs Diaby to get to him with regularity.

Travis Kelce is still the go-to guy in this Chiefs offense. He’s been quieter this season than he typically is, but his production has been building back up after a slow start. He has gone over the 70-yard mark three times in the last four games (with a dud at San Francisco mixed in) and he just caught his first touchdown of the year in last week’s win over the Raiders. The Bucs allowed two touchdowns to Mark Andrews two weeks ago and gave up two more to Kyle Pitts last week, so Kelce may be up next in the parade of tight ends taking advantage of Tampa Bay’s terrible pass defense.

Bucs RT Tristan Wirfs and Chiefs DT Chris Jones – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Chris Jones is a monster on the Chiefs defensive line. He is tied for the team lead in sacks with three, and he’s comfortably PFF’s highest-graded player on the Kansas City defense. He has a 91.2 pass rush grade, with 33 total pressures in seven games. He has the potential to give rookie center Graham Barton and the interior of the Bucs offensive line some serious problems on Monday night, though the Chiefs move him all over the line and have him line up over the tackle as well, with a pretty even split between the two this year.

Bucs at Chiefs Game Information

When: Monday, November 4
Where: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN – Joe Buck (Play by Play), Troy Aikman (Analyst), Lisa Salters (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martín Gramática (Analyst), Santiago Gramática (Reporter)