The stretch run really begins on Sunday for the 4-6 Bucs as they head to Indianapolis for a pivotal game against the 5-5 Colts to wrap up November. Realistically, Tampa Bay’s 27-14 loss to San Francisco in Week 11 was expected, but now is when the team really needs to go on a run and finish strong if it has any chance of winning the weak NFC South and making the playoffs for a fourth straight year.

The Bucs are just a game behind the 5-5 Saints for the division lead, though they sit even with the Falcons at 4-6 in second place. But there is ground to be gained this Sunday, as New Orleans and Atlanta play each other. So a Tampa Bay win over Indianapolis not only gets Todd Bowles and Co. back to .500, but it also guarantees movement in the NFC South race.

A Saints loss in that scenario means the Bucs and Falcons would pull into a three-way tie with them at 5-6, while a Falcons loss would at least give the Bucs sole possession of second place as they keep pace and remain one game behind the Saints.

The key for Tampa Bay in its final seven games is ultimately to just take care of its business. With four divisional games left, everything is still in play for a three-peat as NFC South champions. But this team also has to bank some other wins to make those divisional matchups still mean something by the time they get here. That pretty much solidifies Sunday’s game against the Colts as a must-win. 

The Last Time…

Bucs RB Leonard Fournette – Photo by: USA Today

These two teams last met at Lucas Oil Stadium in 2021, with the Bucs coming back from down 10 at halftime to win 38-31. Carson Wentz lit up Tampa Bay’s defense for 306 yards and three touchdowns, though he did throw two interceptions. One of those came on an outstanding play by Antoine Winfield Jr. in coverage on Michael Pittman Jr., a turnover that led to the Bucs taking a 28-24 lead in the third quarter after a Ronald Jones II touchdown run.

The Colts did come back to tie the game at 31 with 3:29 left, but a 28-yard touchdown run by Leonard Fournette with 20 seconds to go sealed a big road win for Bruce Arians’ team.

Fournette ran for 100 yards and four touchdowns on 17 carries in the game, while Rob Gronkowski led all receivers with seven catches for 123 yards. Winfield and Pierre Desir intercepted Wentz while Lavonte David, Shaq Barrett and Scotty Miller all recovered fumbles. Miller’s came on a fantastic special teams play, setting up a field goal.

Indianapolis has a slight 8-7 edge in the all-time series with Tampa Bay, with a 5-3 advantage in Indy. The Bucs have won the last two meetings and have a 3-1 record in the last four games against the Colts.

How The Bucs And Colts Are Trending

The Bucs finally snapped their four-game losing streak two weeks ago, but they returned to the loss column in Week 11 against the 49ers and dropped to 4-6 with seven games to go. A 5-2 record down the stretch would almost certainly win the division for Tampa Bay, plus it would one-up the team’s record from a year ago. Even a 4-3 mark could do the trick in this division, really.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

What works in the Bucs’ favor is that their remaining schedule should be manageable. After their game against the 5-5 Colts, they’ll return home for a game against the 1-9 Panthers. They’ll then play road games against the 4-6 Falcons and 4-6 Packers before home games against the 7-3 Jaguars and 5-5 Saints. The season wraps up after that with a trip to face the 1-9 Panthers in Charlotte. That Jaguars game is the only daunting game on the remaining slate that’s daunting, but even that could prove winnable. It’s all up to the Bucs, of course.

What isn’t working in Tampa Bay’s favor is its lack of consistency. What good is a manageable schedule if you’re a middle-of-the-road, week-to-week team yourself? That’s what Todd Bowles’ squad has been, as it hasn’t won back-to-back games since Weeks 1 and 2. Since a 2-0 start, it’s gone loss/win/loss/loss/loss/loss/win/loss. The offense has never really found its groove, while the defense — supposedly the Bucs’ strength — is either dominant (see the Bears, Saints and Titans games) or flat-out awful (see the Bills, Texans and 49ers games). Given it has lost five of the last six games, this team may not be capable of going on a 4-3/5-2 type of run over the final seven games.

The Colts are in the mix for the playoffs themselves, perhaps improbably. They lost their quarterback — 2023 first-round pick Anthony Richardson — to a season-ending injury in October, but they’ve continued to scrap as of late with Gardner Minshew under center. They went from 3-5 at the end of October to 5-5 right now, winning games against the Panthers and Patriots to do so. And not only are they at home for this game against the Bucs, but they’ll be well rested off of their bye while the visitors come in with some injury problems.

Beating Carolina and New England isn’t overly impressive given the season those two teams are having and the fact that the second of those two games was a 10-6 final score. But still, Indianapolis is just a game out of the AFC Wild Card picture and has impressive wins over Houston and Baltimore on its 2023 resume.

Here’s how the Bucs and Colts stack up heading into Week 12:

Bucs Offense: 23rd in scoring offense (19.2 PPG), 22nd in total offense (304.7 yards per game), 14th in passing offense (227.8 yards per game), 32nd in rushing offense (76.9 yards per game)

Colts Offense: 9th in scoring offense (24.2 PPG), 14th in total offense (336.1 yards per game), 17th in passing offense (218.1 yards per game), 10th in rushing offense (118.0 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: 9th in scoring defense (20.0 points allowed per game), 26th in total defense (360.7 yards allowed per game), 31st in passing defense (270.7 yards allowed per game), 6th in rushing defense (90.0 yards allowed per game)

Colts Defense: 26th in scoring defense (24.8 points allowed per game), 25th in total defense (358.5 yards allowed per game), 18th in passing defense (228.8 yards allowed per game), 25th in rushing defense (129.7 yards allowed per game)

As of Wednesday, the Colts were 2.5-point favorites with an Over/Under set at 44 points (per mybookie.ag).

What Might Decide This Bucs-Colts Matchup?

Bucs ILB SirVocea Dennis – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

For the Bucs, this game could come down to health and/or the team’s ability to cope with missing some starters on defense. Jamel Dean is reportedly week-to-week with an ankle injury, while Lavonte David (groin) and Carlton Davis (hip) are in danger of missing this game as well. If Tampa Bay can get any of these three healthy enough to play — and play well — against the Colts, that would help. But it’s more likely that Todd Bowles will be relying on some replacements on Sunday, and how those replacements play could become one of the game’s biggest factors.

The Bucs will need Zyon McCollum, Dee Delaney, Josh Hayes and any practice squad elevations to step up in the secondary, while rookie SirVocea Dennis or veteran K.J. Britt — or a combination of the two — will need to at least be serviceable if David can’t suit up.

And with all of those injuries, it sure would help if the Bucs could get their pass rush going. If Bowles insists on Joe Tryon-Shoyinka getting the lion’s share of snaps off the edge with Shaq Barrett, the third-year pass rusher needs to produce more. But getting Yaya Diaby and even Markees Watts into the rotation more heavily could work to Tampa Bay’s advantage and breathe life and juice into the pass rush. It would at least give the Colts some different looks.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The defense being so banged-up also means it would be nice for the offense to shoulder some responsibility for once. As frustrating as Bowles’ defense has been at times, it kept the team in it during a 20-6 loss to the Lions and a 16-13 defeat against the Falcons. The offense’s lone gripe would be the 39-37 loss to the Texans, as the defense cost them that one. But we’ve yet to see any carryover from that 37-point outburst, and it would be a sight for sore eyes to see Baker Mayfield, Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Cade Otton and the rest of the unit actually go out and win the Bucs a game.

The magic number for Indianapolis this year — at least defensively — has been 21 points. When the Colts allow fewer than 21 points, they’re 5-0. In their five losses, they’ve allowed 31, 29, 37, 39 and 38 points. So if the Bucs can’t get their offense going, the door will be open for Indy to score just enough to win.

Gardner Minshew has been a mixed bag for the Colts since stepping in for the injured Anthony Richardson. He has completed 63.7% of his passes for 1,721 yards and eight touchdowns to six interceptions in 10 games. He’s also added two rushing scores as well. What helps is that the Indianapolis offensive line has only allowed 22 sacks in 10 games this season, which is tied for the third-fewest in the league. So that part about the Bucs needing to get their pass rush going to cover for injuries at linebacker and cornerback? It could prove difficult.

For most teams, the Colts’ rushing attack would be a scary threat to deal with, as two-time 1,000-yard rusher Jonathan Taylor has gone for 323 yards and two touchdowns on 85 carries since ending his holdout and returning to the team in early October. Meanwhile, Zack Moss has a team-high 617 yards and five touchdowns on 133 carries (4.6 avg), so he’s impressive in his own right. But the Bucs have held up well against the run this year, so it’ll be interesting to see how the Colts choose to approach things offensively.

Key Players to Watch

Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby – Photo by: USA Today

By his usual standards, Chris Godwin is having a down year. He has 50 catches for 561 yards and one touchdown, averaging 11.2 yards per catch. That’s not a bad stat line by any means, but Godwin has typically put up borderline WR1 numbers and just doesn’t feature in games as heavily as he has in the past. If Tampa Bay can get him the ball more, it’ll move the chains more and sustain drives. Not to mention, getting Godwin back in the end zone would help as he has just two scores in his last 17 games.

Yaya Diaby has quickly begun to establish himself as one of the Bucs’ better pass rushing threats, which has many calling for him to see more playing time. The rookie out of Louisville has four sacks this year (though PFF credits him with five), which is tied for the second-most on the team with Shaq Barrett. Diaby had two of the defense’s four sacks last week, and he did that while playing just 35% of snaps. His seven tackles for loss are good for third-most on the team, too. Todd Bowles simply needs to get him on the field more, even at the expense of a former first-round pick in Joe Tryon-Shoyinka.

Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. Photo by: USA Today

Michael Pittman Jr. has been a reliable target no matter who has been under center for the Colts. He’s someone Gardner Minshew can trust, as he’s leading Indianapolis with 66 catches for 677 yards and three touchdowns and he’s currently on pace for a career year. Even at its healthiest, Tampa Bay’s secondary has been torn apart by opposing quarterbacks this year. So with the potential for the team’s top two corners to miss the game, Pittman could be in for a big day. Zyon McCollum has the length to match up with him, but it’ll still be a tall task for the second-year corner.

Cornerback Kenny Moore II has been a playmaking machine for the Colts defense this season. In 10 games, he has 67 tackles (51 solo), 1.5 sacks, SEVEN tackles for loss, five passes defensed, three interceptions and two touchdowns. In a 27-13 win over the Panthers two weeks ago, he was essentially the difference in the game. He had a 49-yard pick-six in the second quarter and a 66-yard pick-six in the fourth quarter. Again, Moore scored two defensive touchdowns in what turned out to be a 14-point game. That’s impressive, and he’ll be lurking and looking to make an impact play on Sunday against Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense.

Bucs at Colts Game Information

When: Sunday, November 26
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS – Spero Dedes (Play by Play), Adam Archuleta (Analyst), Amanda Renner (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martín Gramática (Analyst)